Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP The consensus for tomorrow's NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the principal component of the big jobs report) is 110k--not much of a downgrade from last month's 139k. The bond market has recently been trading as if it expects to see an even lower number--a fact that's not too surprising given the preponderance of other data that suggests a weaker labor market in June. The latest in that list was today's ADP employment report which completely whiffed (-35k vs 95k f'cast). Bonds initially rallied on that news, but didn't maintain the gains, possibly due to all of the preemptive rallying already in place over the past 2 weeks, and possibly because ADP is notorious for paradoxically diverging from NFP on any given month despite broad long-term correlation. Today's weakness was minimal in the bigger picture and could just as easily be viewed as part of a 2-day process of circling the wagons (pausing and modestly correcting a prevailing trend on the eve of high-consequence data). Econ Data / EventsADP Employment-33k vs 95k f'cast, 29k prev Market Movement Recap08:27 AM slightly weaker overnight but erasing losses after ADP data--at least in the shorter end of the yield curve. MBS now unchanged. 10yr up 4bps at 4.279, but 2yr is down 1.7bps. 09:15 AM Back down to weaker levels. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 5.3bps at 4.292 12:46 PM Holding at 5 ticks (.16) weaker in MBS. 10yr now up 6.4bps at 4.303 03:10 PM Off the weakest levels in Treasuries with 10yr now up only 4.8bps at 4.288. MBS down an eighth.
| Mortgage Rate Watch | | Rates Finally Rise Ahead of Jobs Report | | Mortgage rates have generally been falling since May 21st and have done nothing but move lower for more than 2 weeks. That winning streak finally came to an end today with the average lender moving up 0.06% for a top tier 30yr fixed quote. Whi... (read more) |
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| 30 Yr. Fixed Rate | | 6.73% +0.06% |
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| Rate | Change | Points |
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| Mortgage News Daily | | 30 Yr. Fixed | 6.73% | +0.06 | 0.00 | | 15 Yr. Fixed | 5.97% | +0.06 | 0.00 | | 30 Yr. FHA | 6.25% | +0.06 | 0.00 | | 30 Yr. Jumbo | 6.84% | +0.04 | 0.00 | | 7/6 SOFR ARM | 6.33% | +0.04 | 0.00 | | 30 Yr. VA | 6.26% | +0.06 | 0.00 | | Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/2 |
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| 15 Yr. Fixed Rate | | 5.97% +0.06% |
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| Rate | Change | Points |
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| Freddie Mac | | 30 Yr. Fixed | 6.77% | -0.04 | 0.00 | | 15 Yr. Fixed | 5.89% | -0.07 | 0.00 | | Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/26 |
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| Mortgage Bankers Assoc. | | 30 Yr. Fixed | 6.88% | +0.04 | 0.63 | | 15 Yr. Fixed | 6.11% | -0.03 | 0.74 | | 30 Yr. Jumbo | 6.88% | +0.07 | 0.60 | | Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/25 |
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| Price / Yield | Change |
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| MBS | | UMBS 5.5 | 99.85 | -0.08 | | UMBS 6.0 | 101.57 | -0.02 | | GNMA 5.5 | 99.99 | -0.07 | | GNMA 6.0 | 101.44 | +0.03 | | Pricing as of: 7/2 5:31PM EST |
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| 10 Year US Treasury | | 4.2837 +0.0445 |
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| Price / Yield | Change |
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| US Treasury | | 2 YR Treasury | 3.789 | +0.012 | | 5 YR Treasury | 3.869 | +0.030 | | 7 YR Treasury | 4.059 | +0.046 | | 10 YR Treasury | 4.284 | +0.045 | | 30 YR Treasury | 4.809 | +0.041 | | Pricing as of: 7/2 5:31PM EST |
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