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| Friday, December 6, 2024 |
| Hello! Welcome in for another day of matchup notes! Today, we're focused on the RB position. |
| Week 14 Beyond the Box Score episode: |
| Week 14 RB Matchup Notes: |
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| Tyrone Tracy league-winner campaign back on track? |
| As long as he doesn't fumble it away, it does feel as if Tracy is here to stay as a weekly top option at the RB position for Fantasy. In Week 14, he draws a New Orleans Saints defense that has a league-high adjusted yards before contact allowed per attempt in 2024. |
| Below, you'll see the weekly rush grades per the Fantasy Points Data Suite. This metric quantifies each run-blocking unit's advantage in the weekly matchup. So, even though the Giants technically have the easiest matchup, it is still the Eagles who carry the best rush grade because of the overall advantage created by facing an easy defense and boasting an overpowering offensive line. I underlined the matchups that will be featured in today's article for you. |
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| Running backs have combined for 389 rushing yards vs. the Rams over the past two weeks, next up: James Cook |
| To be fair to the Rams, those running backs were Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara. Still, 389 yards is 389 yards. In two games. |
| And this has been a matchup to attack with running backs all year. D'Andre Swift totaled 165 scrimmage yards vs. the Rams. Alexander Mattison went for 123 vs. L.A.! On the year, the Rams have the fourth-lowest opponent pass rate over expectation, meaning that opposing offenses have chosen to attack this defense on the ground. And since L.A.'s bye week, six of seven opponents have been more run-heavy than expected given the circumstances leading up to each play. |
| I have James Cook ranked as a top-10 Fantasy RB in Week 14. If you don't see a running back's name listed ahead of him, then that means I would start Cook over that running back. |
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| And really, you could move Cook ahead of both Kyren Williams and Bucky Irving if that feels better to you. The Raiders have played the run tough since a Week 10 bye, and I am a bit worried about Bucky's health. And the Bills are 4.5-point favorites over the Rams, so I wouldn't blame anyone for preferring Cook to Williams in that game. |
| Saquon Barkley is the only running back who I would start ahead of Chase Brown in Week 14 |
| Not even Alvin Kamara against a Dexter Lawrence-less New York Giants defense. Not even De'Von Achane against a New York Jets defense ranked dead last in tackle conversion rate vs. running backs. Only Saquon. |
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| Over the past month, Chase Brown is the RB1 in expected Fantasy points per game, according to the Fantasy Points Data model. He's played great, his role is phenomenal, and his team has the second-highest Vegas-implied point total (27.5) in Week 14. |
| The Dallas defense has played tough against the run lately, but we've still seen Joe Mixon (153 scrimmage yards in Week 11) and Bijan Robinson (145 scrimmage yards in Week 9) wear this defense down. Those are both running backs who exist in zone-heavy run schemes, similar to Brown in Cincy. If you wanna be specific, Brown's run scheme is more similar to Atlanta's (shotgun-heavy) than Houston's or New Orleans (another team that gashed the Cowboys on the ground) who use more under-center looks. The reason that I bring up those zone-heavy run schemes is that 34% of Brown's rushes this season have been outside zone and 26% have involved inside zone-schemed blocking. The Cowboys rank bottom-10 in yards per inside and outside zone rush allowed and are actually middle of the pack against all other runs. |
| Can we trust Isaac Guerendo? |
| Speaking of zone-heavy run schemes, 57% of Guerendo's runs have been outside zone-schemed. That's just ahead of Jordan Mason and Christian McCaffrey's rate, only the Falcons and Saints have a higher team rate. |
| The Chicago Bears have struggled against the run in general, including outside zone. Chicago's opponents have averaged 4.8 yards per outside zone rush attempt. This has become a defense to attack on the ground, and I'd expect the Niners to try to do just that. Especially if Trent Williams misses this game, I'd expect Shanahan to do his best to avoid Chicago's pass rush. |
| Backfields to face the Chicago Bears since the Week 7 bye: |
Detroit -- 228 scrimmage yards
Minnesota -- 154 scrimmage yards
Green Bay -- 164 scrimmage yards
New England -- 127 scrimmage yards
Arizona -- 256 scrimmage yards |
| How much of San Francisco's backfield split will go to Guerendo? It's tough to say, but we do have one game where Guerendo worked as the primary fill-in for the Niners. In Week 8, Mason left early and Guerendo logged a 76% snap rate from that point on. He handled 14 rush attempts, Deebo Samuel mixed in with four, Patrick Taylor saw two, and both Kyle Juszczyk and Ricky Pearsall rushed once. Guerendo also logged a super solid 66% route participation rate following the Mason injury and was targeted four times. |
| Can we trust Guerendo? I'm not sure. I did not love his prospect profile from an analytics standpoint and was not impressed by his instincts and feel for finding running lanes. He can turn any single play into a huge gain, though, and he's facing a Bears defense that has the third-highest opponent explosive run rate allowed. On a week where many running backs are on bye, I'm perfectly content to roll the dice on Guerendo in this matchup. |
| Zach Charbonnet may be a bye week savior |
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| Charbonnet has run really well lately and may get a starring opportunity if Kenneth Walker is unable to go in Week 14. Unlike most of his previous spot starts, this would one would not come against one of the league's toughest run defenses. Quite the opposite, in fact! The Cardinals invite opposing offenses to beat their defense with the running back position. Specifically, I like the way this matchup lines up because Arizona's hands-off defense (highest 'light box' rate in the NFL) has been gashed on inside zone runs. |
| Seattle's backfield combined for 113 scrimmage yards on 28 opportunities vs. Arizona two weeks ago, and we've seen nearly all of that work go to Charbonnet when Walker has missed time in the past. |
| Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Adam, Dan, and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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