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| Thursday, November 7, 2024 |
| Hello! Welcome in for another day of matchup notes! Today, we're focused on the RB position. |
| Week 10 Beyond the Box Score episode: |
| Guest -- Heath Cummings of FFT |
| Week 10 RB Matchup Notes: |
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| James Conner finds the end zone in Week 10 |
| The only member of the Arizona Cardinals backfield to not find the end zone in Week 9 was the one who led the way with 21 touches. I think that we see the big man find the promised land in Week 10 vs. the Jets. |
| No defensive unit has been worse at tackling running backs than New York. The Jets have a 16.6% missed tackle rate on RB runs, the next-lowest is 15.1% and the league average is 11.7%. |
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| Specifically, the Jets have been worse vs. man/gap runs than zone runs. Conner's been used as a man/gap rusher at the highest rate (71%) of any qualified RB in 2024. |
| I highlighted why I was concerned with the potential pressure problems for Kyler Murray and Arizona's offensive line vs. the Jets in yesterday's pass game matchup column. I expect the Cardinals to lean on the run as much as possible in this matchup. That's become a trend for offenses facing the Jets. New York has the third-highest opponent rush rate over expectation. Seven of nine opponents have run more than expected based on the circumstances of any given play. |
| Breece Hall draws a good schematic matchup and may see a boost in targets |
| I have done my best to contextualize what weird matchups Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill have faced during the Tua Tagovailoa starts, one of which is the Arizona Cardinals. As I detailed Arizona's defense, it felt more and more clear how intuitive of a fit it was for De'Von Achane to be force-fed touches vs. the Cardinals. That's the matchup that Breece Hall faces in Week 10. |
| Schematically, the matchup fits well for a Jets offense that leans on zone running. The Cardinals have allowed the third-highest success rate on zone runs, and 62% of Hall's runs have been zone-schemed. |
| Arizona also has the 10th-worst tackle rate on opponent RB runs and the lowest stacked box rate defensively. It will be really interesting to see how the touches are dispersed for New York's offense. For DFS purposes, Hall is really interesting this week. I expect that both Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams might be popular plays after last week's island-game showing, and at the top end of the RB position, all of Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Bijan Robinson are there to compete with for people's attention. I wonder if Hall might go overlooked in a matchup where he could quickly pile up points as a pass-catcher. |
| Tyrone Tracy's league-winning begins now! |
| I've heard a lot of people attaching the "league-winner" moniker to my boy lately! I sure hope that they are right, I need it in a lot of spots! |
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| I love the gold medal emoji, but I need more than seven points this week. I know this is silly to be asking of my late-round rookie RB, but I need him to save me in leagues where I've been hit hard by injuries. My CeeDee Lamb teams need saving. Is Nico Collins really not going to play this week?! We are in scary hours with Jonathan Brooks, people! I am spiraling, please save me Tyrone! |
| The league-winning starts this week vs. Carolina, surely, right? Tracy's Giants carry a higher implied point total into Week 10 than Alvin Kamara's Saints, Jonathan Taylor's Colts, James Conner's Cardinals, J.K. Dobbins' Chargers, D'Andre Swift's Bears, even Joe Mixon's Texans! We're looking at a legitimate RB1 framework for Tracy in this matchup. |
| The Panthers just gave up 215 scrimmage yards to Kamara and of course have allowed more Fantasy points to the RB position than any other team. If I were to choose a "strength" of Carolina's defense, it would be the secondary. The Panthers have given up some big passing performances, but I believe that has the most to do with the complete lack of pass rush. Here's an important note on that. |
| The front seven is the weakness of this defense. Even though the Panthers are easy to pass against, Carolina's opponent pass rate over expectation is the sixth-lowest. That stat was created to adjust for the circumstances of any given play and to offer an idea of how offenses might prefer to attack a defense regardless of the game script. The expectation is often that Carolina's opponents will run the ball, because the Panthers are often losing, and still, Carolina's opponents have run even more than expected. |
| Since losing left tackle Andrew Thomas for the season, the Giants have a -3.4% pass rate over expectation. That's the same range as the Lions (-3.3%) and Ravens (-3.4%), for reference. New York has leaned run-heavy, which I believe is by design to avoid pressure in the dropback game. We've seen the Giants feed Tracy 17+ touches in four of the past five games and push his touch total as high as 22 and 23, so there is some precedent for believing that he may see a massive workload in Week 10! |
| Speaking of run-heavy, we may see a ton of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren this weekend |
| The Commanders have the highest opponent run rate over expectation (6.1%) on the year, and that rate has been double-digits in each of the past three games. Washington has four games where the opponent posted a double-digit rate, no other team has more than two. Opposing offenses want to run the ball vs. Washington. |
| Arthur Smith loves to run the ball, of course. Only three offenses have a higher run rate over expectation. Pittsburgh's run rate over expectation has remained positive in each of the two Russell Wilson starts. I think we're going to see a ton of runs in this game as long as the Steelers don't fall into an early double-digit hole. |
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| This feels like an aggressive ranking on Warren, and maybe that's the case. I think that bye week came at exactly the right time for him, and I'm excited to see if he's closer to resembling the explosive playmaker that we saw in 2023. |
| PIT RB in two Russell Wilson starts: |
Snap rate - Najee Harris (54%), Warren (43%)
Rush attempts - Harris (40), Warren (21)
Targets - Warren (6), Harris (4) |
| Warren might legitimately be available to pick up for free in your league. I think it's at least worth considering starting him ahead of each of the two following running backs: |
| Tank Bigsby draws another brutal matchup |
| The Vikings blitz like crazy and present loaded boxes that encourage opponents to pass the ball. Minnesota's opponent pass rate over expectation is the seventh-highest in the NFL. |
| My guess is that Jacksonville would prefer to lean on the ground game without Trevor Lawrence, but this is a brutal spot to try to do so. Specifically, the blitz-heavy nature of Minnesota's defense makes life really tough on gap run schemes. The gaps are all filled. The Vikings have allowed 4.8 yards per zone rush and just 2.7 yards per man/gap run. No other team has a rate below 3.0. The Jaguars have the second-highest man/gap run rate in the league. I'm doing all that I can to avoid the Jags in Week 10. |
| Rico Dowdle vs. Philly? Only if I have to. |
| The usage is probably going to be there, but it would be a shock if the efficiency is. The Eagles have bottled up opposing running backs, not allowing 50+ rushing yards since Week 3. On the year, Philly has the best tackle conversion rate on opposing RB runs. I'm avoiding the Dallas offense this week. |
| Week 10 Rankings Update |
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Quarterback
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| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
QB1 - Lamar Jackson
QB2 - Josh Allen
QB3 - Jayden Daniels
QB4 - Jalen Hurts |
| Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk |
| QB12 - Kyler Murray |
| Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers |
QB5 - Joe Burrow
QB6 - Brock Purdy
QB7 - Kirk Cousins
QB8 - Sam Darnold
QB9 - Matthew Stafford
QB10 - Tua Tagovailoa
QB11 - Patrick Mahomes
QB13 - Jared Goff
QB15 - Justin Herbert
QB16 - Baker Mayfield
QB17 - Aaron Rodgers |
| Tier 4 -- He's Janiel Dones |
QB18 - Daniel Jones
QB19 - Bo Nix |
| Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players |
QB20 - Caleb Williams
QB21 - C.J. Stroud
QB22 - Russell Wilson
QB23 - Joe Flacco
QB24 - Derek Carr
QB25 - Bryce Young
QB26 - Cooper Rush
QB27 - Mac Jones
QB28 - Mason Rudolph |
| Running Backs |
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| (This rankings set was created under the assumption that Travis Etienne and Tyrone Tracy (we got some good news today, though!) will not play in Week 9. I send out an updated rankings set every Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday. Be sure to check back for updates on Sunday morning!) |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
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RB13 - James Cook
RB15 - David Montgomery
RB16 - James Conner
RB17 - Jonathan Taylor
RB18 - Kareem Hunt
RB19 - J.K. Dobbins
RB20 - Chase Brown
RB22 - Brian Robinson Jr. |
| Tier 2 -- Role checks out, but can we trust the offensive environment? |
RB14 - D'Andre Swift
RB21 - Najee Harris
RB23 - Tony Pollard
RB24 - Chuba Hubbard
RB25 - Rhamondre Stevenson
RB28 - Jaylen Warren |
| Tier 5 -- I have several concerns |
RB26 - Rachaad White
RB27 - Rico Dowdle
RB30 - Tank Bigsby
RB31 - Javonte Williams |
| Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously (we're chasing upside!) |
RB29 - Bucky Irving
RB32 - Rahemm Mostert
RB33 - Jordan Mason
RB35 - Tyler Allgeier
RB36 - Ray Davis |
| Tier 7 -- Desperation plays |
RB34 - Austin Ekeler
RB37 - Samaje Perine
RB38 - Justice Hill
RB39 - Roschon Johnson
RB40 - Jonathon Brooks
RB41 - Emari Demercado
RB42 - Braelon Allen
RB43 - Devin Singletary
RB44 - Travis Etienne
RB45 - Antonio Gibson
RB46 - Jaleel McLaughlin
RB47 - Kimani Vidal
RB48 - Trey Benson
RB49 - Sean Tucker
RB50 - Jaylen Wright
RB51 - Kenneth Gainwell
RB52 - Cam Akers
RB53 - Keaton Mitchell |
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| Wide Receivers |
| (This rankings set was created under the assumption that Tee Higgins, Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis, and DK Metcalf will not play in Week 9. I send out an updated rankings set every Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday. Be sure to check back for updates on Sunday morning!) |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
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WR13 - Terry McLaurin
WR14 - Garrett Wilson
WR15 - Josh Downs
WR19 - Darnell Mooney |
| Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big score |
WR16 - Jauan Jennings
WR17 - DeVonta Smith
WR18 - George Pickens
WR20 - Tank Dell
WR21 - Jaylen Waddle |
| Here's the reasoning behind continued belief in Waddle |
| Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2 |
WR22 - DeAndre Hopkins
WR23 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR24 - Brian Thomas Jr. |
| Tier 4 -- Super solid projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential) |
WR25 - Ladd McConkey
WR26 - Khalil Shakir
WR34 - Michael Pittman
WR36 - Wan'Dale Robinson
WR40 - Parker Washington
WR41 - Demario Douglas
WR42 - Sterling Shepard |
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| Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun! |
WR27 - Calvin Ridley
WR28 - D.J. Moore
WR29 - Jordan Addison
WR30 - Amari Cooper
WR31 - Xavier Legette
WR33 - Rome Odunze
WR35 - Jameson Williams |
| Tier 6 -- Desperation plays |
WR32 - Courtland Sutton
WR37 - Keenan Allen
WR38 - Jalen Tolbert
WR43 - Xavier Worthy
WR44 - Rashod Bateman
WR45 - Noah Brown
WR46 - Diontae Johnson
WR47 - Jalen Coker
WR48 - Quentin Johnston
WR49 - Alec Pierce
WR50 - Andrei Iosivas
WR51 - Kendrick Bourne
WR52 - Joshua Palmer
WR53 - Kayshon Boutte
WR54 - Ray-Ray McCloud
WR55 - KaVontae Turpin |
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| Tight Ends |
| (This rankings set was created under the assumption that Dallas Goedert will not play in Week 9. I send out an updated rankings set every Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday. Be sure to check back for updates on Sunday morning!) |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
TE1 - George Kittle
TE2 - Trey McBride
TE3 - Travis Kelce
TE4 - Evan Engram
TE5 - Cade Otton
TE6 - Taysom Hill
TE7 - Mike Gesicki
TE8 - Mark Andrews
TE9 - Kyle Pitts
TE10 - Dalton Kincaid |
| Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up |
TE11 - Jake Ferguson
TE12 - Sam LaPorta
TE16 - T.J. Hockenson
TE17 - Dallas Goedert |
| Tier 3 -- Streamers |
TE13 - Hunter Henry
TE14 - Jonnu Smith
TE15 - Ja'Tavion Sanders
TE18 - Pat Freiermuth
TE19 - Zach Ertz
TE20 - Cole Kmet
TE21 - Dalton Schultz
TE22 - Theo Johnson
TE23 - Tyler Conklin
TE24 - Will Dissly
TE25 - Charlie Kolar |
| Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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