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| Thursday, November 21, 2024 |
| Hello! Welcome in for another day of matchup notes! Today, we're focused on the RB position. |
| Week 12 Beyond the Box Score episode: |
| Guest -- Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals |
| Week 12 RB Matchup Notes: |
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| Bucky Irving is set to smash |
| The Buccaneers are 5.5-point favorites coming out of the Week 11 bye against a Giants defense that has allowed 100+ rushing yards in each of the past four games. |
| Recent RBs vs. the New York Giants: |
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| The Giants have been gashed for 5.22 yards per man/gap rush, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. That's the way that Liam Coen has mostly used Bucky Irving. Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, only 39% of Irving's runs have been zone-schemed blocking, compared to 63% for Rachaad White. Irving is used more on man/gap runs where his creativity and vision allow him to read space and improvise. |
| We may see Irving breaking a lot of tackles vs. a Giants defense that ranks 23rd in RB tackle conversion rate, and if the Tommy DeVito experience does not go well and the Bucs build a big lead, we could see Irving set a new career-high in rush attempts. |
| Brian Robinson is one of the few RBs who I feel good about starting over Bucky in Week 12 |
| B Rob comes in as RB12 in my Week 12 rankings, which is nuts. A 100+ rushing yard and 2+ TD game feels well within reach against Dallas. The RB position is so ridiculously stacked right now. |
| There are 12 running backs who I for sure feel good starting ahead of Bucky Irving. I circled them below. Beyond that, I think that you can reasonably go with Irving over anyone else. |
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| I'm low (expert consensus ranks are on the right) on James Conner?! That can't be right! |
| I can't believe how good the RB position is. Ben Gretch said on today's Beyond the Box Score that all of the top 33 running backs in August ADP are still healthy and playing as of Week 12. I've never seen anything like it. The most significant injury (assuming that Isiah Pacheco makes his return) at the moment is Zack Moss. |
| Even still, even in this bizarro world where every running back is handling a large workload and doing it at a high level for multiple months in a row, Brian Robinson feels like someone who you have to get into your lineups. The only team with a higher Vegas-implied point total than the Commanders in Week 12 is the Detroit Lions. The Cowboys have allowed 100+ rushing yards to opposing backfields in five-straight games. Only the Carolina Panthers have allowed more rushing Fantasy points than the Cowboys. Dallas is tied with the Saints for the highest opponent rush success rate (61%) allowed on man/gap runs, that's what Kliff Kingsbury is cooking up. Everything points towards a massive B Rob game. |
| All-in on Arizona? |
| Mike Macdonald's Seahawks defense looked pretty stingy in the first game out of a Week 10 bye, and Arizona's Week 12 implied point total vs. Seattle (23) is nothing special. Still, I can't help but feel an urge to go all-in on Drew Petzing's Cardinals offense fresh off of a Week 11 bye. If you look at the most-recent four games for every team, the only ones with a higher offensive EPA per play than Arizona are Baltimore and Detroit. On the year, even with a slow start, Arizona ranks sixth in offensive success rate and eighth in offensive EPA per play. |
| This is a really good offense! And it has taken some time for the offense to find cohesion. Kyler Murray only had half of a season of experience with Trey McBride coming into 2024 and his top WR was a rookie. It is not a surprise that this took time. What Petzing has been attempting to build in the run game is not simple. TruMedia has Arizona's combined "counter" "pin-pull" run rate at 35%, only one other team (Washington - 32%) is above 30%. Those are complicated runs that involve moving pieces. |
| I think it makes sense that it has taken time for the Cardinals to piece it together, but the offense has looked good lately -- really good, even -- Arizona is first in rush success rate if comparing every offense's past four games. I think that we may see Arizona able to move the ball effectively on the ground and put up a big point total against Seattle in Week 12. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite's offensive/defensive line matchup tool, this is the most advantageous run game matchup this week. |
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| Specifically, the Seahawks have allowed the second-most yards per man/gap run and have an opponent man/gap rush success rate of 59%. That's a massive rate (third-highest) that is up from 48% (17th) against zone runs. The Cardinals have by far the most man/gap runs in the NFL. 65% of Arizona's runs are classified as man/gap in the FP Data Suite, the next-highest rate is 50%. James Conner is locked into lineups in this spot, and I think that Trey Benson is worth consideration as an off-the-wall flex play if you're in bye week trouble. |
| Chuba Hubbard's outlook terrifies me this week |
| The Chiefs have not allowed more than 58 rushing yards to an opposing RB in 2024. |
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| This has been a near-impossible defense to run against, and opponents have been at their worst when attempting zone runs. The Chiefs have allowed a league-low 3.1 yards per rush to go with a league-low 34% rush success rate on zone runs. The Panthers have the fifth-highest zone rush rate in the NFL. |
| Week 12 Rankings Update |
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Quarterback
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| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
QB1 - Jalen Hurts
QB2 - Lamar Jackson
QB3 - Jayden Daniels
QB4 - Justin Herbert
QB5 - Kyler Murray |
| Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk |
QB6 - Bo Nix
QB10 - Drake Maye
QB12 - Anthony Richardson |
| Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers |
QB7 - Brock Purdy
QB8 - Jordan Love
QB9 - Jared Goff
QB11 - Patrick Mahomes
QB13 - Baker Mayfield
QB14 - Tua Tagovailoa
QB15 - C.J. Stroud
QB16 - Geno Smith
QB17 - Matthew Stafford
QB19 - Sam Darnold
QB20 - Russell Wilson |
| Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players |
QB18 - Caleb Williams
QB21 - Tommy DeVito
QB22 - Jameis Winston
QB23 - Will Levis
QB24 - Gardner Minshew
QB25 - Bryce Young
QB26 - Cooper Rush |
| Running Backs |
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| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
RB1 - Saquon Barkley
RB2 - De'Von Achane
RB3 - Christian McCaffrey
RB4 - Joe Mixon
RB5 - Derrick Henry
RB6 - Jahmyr Gibbs
RB7 - Kenneth Walker
RB8 - Josh Jacobs
RB9 - Kyren Williams
RB10 - David Montgomery
RB11 - James Conner
RB12 - Brian Robinson Jr.
RB15 - Aaron Jones
RB17 - J.K. Dobbins
RB18 - Bucky Irving
RB20 - Rachaad White |
| Tier 2 -- Role checks out, but can we trust the offensive environment? |
RB13 - Tyrone Tracy
RB14 - Jonathan Taylor
RB16 - Rhamondre Stevenson
RB19 - Najee Harris
RB21 - Chuba Hubbard
RB22 - Tony Pollard
RB25 - Rico Dowdle |
| Tier 5 -- I have several concerns |
RB23 - D'Andre Swift
RB28 - Jaylen Warren
RB30 - Nick Chubb |
| Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously (we're chasing upside!) |
RB24 - Kareem Hunt
RB31 - Jonathan Brooks
RB32 - Trey Benson |
| Tier 7 -- Desperation plays |
RB26 - Austin Ekeler
RB27 - Javonte Williams
RB33 - Ameer Abdullah
RB34 - Cam Akers
RB35 - Justice Hill
RB36 - Jerome Ford |
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| Wide Receivers |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
WR1 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR2 - A.J. Brown
WR3 - Justin Jefferson
WR4 - Nico Collins
WR5 - Puka Nacua
WR6 - Mike Evans
WR7 - Cooper Kupp
WR8 - Jauan Jennings
WR9 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR10 - Ladd McConkey
WR13 - Terry McLaurin
WR14 - Tyreek Hill
WR20 - Courtland Sutton |
| Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big score |
WR11 - George Pickens
WR16 - Josh Downs
WR17 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR18 - DK Metcalf
WR19 - Jayden Reed
WR21 - Zay Flowers
WR23 - Jameson Williams
WR24 - Christian Watson |
| Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2 |
WR12 - Malik Nabers
WR22 - CeeDee Lamb
WR26 - Calvin Ridley
WR31 - Jakobi Meyers |
| Tier 4 -- Super solid projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential) |
WR30 - DeAndre Hopkins
WR33 - Romeo Doubs
WR36 - Wan'Dale Robinson
WR40 - Michael Pittman Jr.
WR42 - DeMario Douglas |
| Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun! |
WR15 - Deebo Samuel
WR25 - DeVonta Smith
WR27 - DJ Moore
WR28 - Tank Dell
WR29 - Quentin Johnston
WR35 - Xavier Worthy
WR39 - Jordan Addison
WR46 - Noah Brown
WR47 - Alec Pierce |
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| Tier 6 -- Desperation plays |
WR32 - Jerry Jeudy
WR34 - Jaylen Waddle
WR37 - Rome Odunze
WR38 - Cedric Tillman
WR41 - Jalen Coker
WR43 - Keenan Allen
WR44 - Xavier Legette
WR45 - Elijah Moore
WR48 - Josh Palmer
WR49 - Darius Slayton
WR50 - Tyler Lockett
WR51 - Jalen McMillan
WR52 - Rashod Bateman
WR53 - Kayshon Boutte
WR54 - Devaughn Vele
WR55 - Nick Westbrook-Ikhine |
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| Tight Ends |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
TE1 - Brock Bowers
TE2 - Trey McBride
TE3 - George Kittle
TE4 - Travis Kelce
TE5 - David Njoku
TE6 - Cade Otton
TE7 - Jonnu Smith
TE8 - Will Dissly
TE10 - Tucker Kraft |
| Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up |
TE11 - T.J. Hockenson
TE13 - Mark Andrews
TE14 - Sam LaPorta |
| Tier 3 -- Streamers |
TE9 - Hunter Henry
TE12 - Dallas Geodert
TE15 - Zach Ertz
TE16 - Jat'Tavion Sanders
TE17 - Isaiah Likely
TE18 - Cole Kmet
TE19 - Pat Freiermuth
TE20 - Dalton Schultz
TE21 - Noah Gray
TE22 - Davis Allen
TE23 - AJ Barner
TE24 - Luka Schoonmaker
TE25 - Chig Oknokwo
TE26 - Theo Johnson |
| Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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