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| Thursday, October 17, 2024 |
| Yooo, welcome in for another day of matchup notes! Today, we're focused on the RB position. |
| Week 7 Beyond the Box Score episode: |
| Guest -- Mike Wright of the Fantasy Footballers |
| Week 7 RB Matchup Notes: |
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| The NFL's third-leading rusher likely to keep piling it on |
| Only Derrick Henry (704) and Jordan Mason (609) have more rushing yards than Chuba Hubbard (485). If the Panthers backfield does not produce 90+ rushing yards vs. the Commanders in Week 7, it would be the first time that has happened in 2024. |
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| According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite's rush grade metric, this is the best matchup for any run-blocking unit up front in Week 7. Another cool way to visualize what an advantageous spot this is for Hubbard comes in the form of a brand new FP Data tool -- the weekly pass rate over expectation report. This tool shows how often opposing offenses chose to pass the ball relative to expectations based on the circumstance of the play. |
| According to this new tool, Washington's opponents have chosen to pass the ball at a below-expectation rate in each of the past three games. Opposing offenses are choosing to run the ball even when circumstance would seem to dictate passing. |
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| A perfect segue to James Cook! |
| I got to host this week's Beyond the Box Score podcast, so my mind is in segue mode. I'm obsessed with segues. The Titans rank third in opponent run rate over expectation, which surprised me. The expectation is often that an opponent is going to run, since the Titans are so often trailing on the scoreboard. And still, opponents have chosen to run even more than expected! |
| You know who loves to run more than expected? Joe Brady's Bills have a negative pass rate over expectation in five of six games this year. In Week 5, Cook ran the ball 20 times. That's the second-highest mark of his career. In Week 6, Ray Davis ran the ball 20 times. The Bills added Davis to the injury report on Thursday , so we may see Cook inserted right back into a massive role in Week 7. If Davis doesn't suit up, I'd expect Cook to push for 20+ touches against the Titans. And even if Davis plays, I expect the Bills to run the ball enough in this matchup for Cook to remain locked in as a top-10 Fantasy RB. I'd start him ahead of Tony Pollard, even with Tyjae Spears out and the Bills defense giving up big performances to opposing running backs. I'd start him ahead of Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs. The Bills are 8.5-point favorites, that's the largest spread of any game. Tennessee's offense looks broken, and I think we're going to see a ton of Cook in Week 7 with the potential for multiple touchdowns as well. |
| Tony Pollard does look really good on paper, though |
| Pollard has a league-high 70.5% of his runs coming from man/gap schemed rushes. He's averaged 4.9 yards per rush on those, up from 3.1 on zone runs. I was super excited to see if Tennessee might use more man/gap rushes, as it suits the skillset perfectly for Pollard and Spears, and we've seen Pollard be the primary beneficiary. |
| The Bills have allowed only 3.7 yards per rush on zone attempts. That rate rises all the way to 5.9 yards per rush on man/gap runs, that's the second-highest rate in the NFL. |
| J.K. Dobbins looks like one of the best Fantasy RB options for Week 7 |
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| The FP Data Suite lists the Chargers offensive line as having the fourth-most advantageous Week 7 matchup, and that's even with a rushing grade that is weighed down by a Week 4 matchup against the Chiefs where L.A.'s line was dominated without both of the starting tackles. If that game is removed, the Chargers rank third in adjusted yards before contact created behind only the Ravens and Colts. This offensive line can move some weight, and Arizona's defensive front plays pretty light. I'm expecting the Chargers to be able to control this game on the ground as we have seen each of Arizona's past four opponents do. |
| Recent backfield production vs. Arizona: |
188-1 rushing (DET)
169-3 rushing (WAS)
111-0 rushing (SF)
137-0 rushing (GB) |
| Tank Bigsby szn resumes |
| Tank Bigsby szn got off track in Week 6, but he's now had a full week to acclimate to London! More importantly, Travis Etienne is out of the picture. The backfield seems to be split between Bigsby and D'Ernest Johnson with Bigsby likely to come off of the field in clear passing situations. That proved to be a problem last week as the Bears blew the doors off of the Jags. In Week 7, the Jaguars are listed as 5.5-point favorites vs. the Patriots. In terms of Vegas expectations, only four teams are more-likely to be playing with a lead than the Jaguars this week. If ever there was a week to bet on the Jags being able to ride Bigsby, it's a matchup against a Patriots team that just got off an overseas flight. |
| The Pats performed well defending the run vs. the Bengals, Seahawks (without Kenneth Walker), and Jets in Weeks 1-3 but have been gashed on the ground since then: |
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| Specifically, the Pats have struggled vs. man/gap rushing. That's predominantly how the Jags have used Bigsby to allow him to use his creativity as a rusher to find vertical lanes to burst into before breaking horizontally and bouncing for explosive plays. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Pats have the third-highest yards per rush allowed on man/gap runs. |
| Week 7 Rankings Update |
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Quarterback
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| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
QB1 -- Jayden Daniels
QB2 -- Lamar Jackson
QB3 -- Jalen Hurts
QB4 -- Josh Allen
QB5 -- Anthony Richardson
QB6 -- Jordan Love
QB9 - Kyler Murray |
| Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk |
QB5 -- Anthony Richardson
QB13 - Drake Maye |
| Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers |
QB6 - Jordan Love
QB7 - Joe Burrow
QB8 - C.J. Stroud
QB10 - Kirk Cousins
QB11 - Geno Smith
QB12 - Baker Mayfield
QB14 - Sam Darnold
QB15 - Brock Purdy
QB16 - Patrick Mahomes
QB17 - Jared Goff
QB18 - Andy Dalton
QB20 - Trevor Lawrence
QB21 - Matthew Stafford
QB22 - Justin Herbert |
| Tier 4 -- He's Daniels Jones |
QB19 -- Daniel Jones
QB23 - Bo Nix |
| Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players |
QB24 - Aaron Rodgers
QB25 - Deshaun Watson
QB26 - Aidan O'Connell
QB27 - Tyler Huntley
QB28 - Spencer Rattler
QB29 - Russell Wilson
QB30 - Will Levis |
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| Running Backs |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
RB1 - Saquon Barkley
RB2 - Bijan Robsinon
RB3 - Kyren Williams
RB4 - Derrick Henry
RB5 - Kenneth Walker
RB6 - Alvin Kamara
RB7 - Chuba Hubbard
RB9 - Jahmyr Gibbs
RB10 - David Montgomery
RB11 - J.K. Dobbins
RB12 - James Cook
RB14 - Josh Jacobs
RB15 - Joe Mixon
RB17 - Kareem Hunt |
| Tier 2 -- Role checks out, but can we trust the offensive environment? |
RB8 - Breece Hall
RB13 - Tony Pollard
RB16 - Tyrone Tracy Jr.
RB18 - De'Von Achane
RB28 - Alexander Mattison
RB29 - Javonte Williams |
| Tier 5 -- I have several concerns |
RB24 - Najee Harris
RB25 - Ty Chandler
RB26 - Isaac Guerendo
RB27 - Antonio Gibson
RB30 - Trey Sermon
RB31 - Nick Chubb
RB32 - Raheem Mostert |
| Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously (we're chasing upside!) |
RB19 - Bucky Irving
RB20 - Austin Ekeler
RB21 - Chase Brown
RB22 - Tyler Allgeier (the role feels really good after last week, but it's worth noting that his outlook is always fragile. He needs big plays and touchdowns. He absolutely may get them in a projected shootout against a Seahawks defense that can be run on)
RB23 - Tank Bigsby
RB33 - Trey Benson
RB34 - Ray Davis (Q)
RB37 - Sean Tucker |
| Tier 7 -- Desperation plays |
RB35 - Zack Moss
RB36 - Pierre Strong
RB38 - Rachaad White
RB39 - Zach Charbonnet
RB40 - Jaylen Warren
RB41 - Emari Demercado
RB42 - Justice Hill
RB43 - Kimani Vidal
RB44 - Brealon Allen
RB45 - Emanuel Wilson
RB46 - Jaleel McLaughlin
RB47 - Jaylen Wright
RB48 - D'Ernest Johnson
RB49 - Tyler Goodson
RB50 - Dameon Pierce |
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| Wide Receivers |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
WR1 - Justin Jefferson
WR2 - Drake London
WR3 - Cooper Kupp (Q)
WR4 - Ja'Marr Chase
WR5 - A.J. Brown
WR6 - Chris Godwin
WR7 - Malik Nabers
WR8 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR10 - DK Metcalf
WR13 - Stefon Diggs
WR14 - Mike Evans
WR15 - Zay Flowers
WR17 - Deebo Samuel
WR18 - DeVonta Smith |
| Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big score |
WR9 - Jayden Reed
WR11 - Terry McLaurin
WR12 - Diontae Johnson (Q)
WR16 - Tee Higgins
WR20 - Tank Dell
WR28 - Darnell Mooney (he'll move into the top-24 if Riq Woolen doesn't play)
WR32 - Xavier Legette (he'll move ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. and almost into the top-20 if Diontae Johnson sits) |
| Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2 |
WR19 - Garrett Wilson
WR22 - Brian Thomas Jr.
WR37 - Courtland Sutton |
| Tier 4 -- Super solid projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential) |
WR21 - Ladd McConkey
WR31 - JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR35 - Demario Douglas
WR36 - Wan'Dale Robinson
WR39 - Jakobi Meyers
WR40 - Christian Kirk
WR42 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
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| Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun! |
WR23 - Brandon Aiyuk
WR24 - Davante Adams
WR25 - Tyreek Hill
WR26 - Jameson Williams
WR27 - Jordan Addison
WR29 - Amari Cooper
WR30 - Josh Downs
WR33 - Christian Watson
WR34 - Romeo Doubs
WR37 - Jaylen Waddle
WR41 - George Pickens
WR43 - Xavier Worthy
WR45 - Jerry Jeudy |
| Tier 6 -- Desperation plays |
WR44 - Tyler Lockett
WR46 - Michael Pittman
WR47 - Michael Wilson
WR48 - Rashod Bateman
WR49 - Khalil Shakir
WR50 - DeAndre Hopkins
WR51 - Jauan Jennings (Q)
WR52 - Calvin Ridley
WR53 - Quentin Johnston
WR54 - Noah Brown
WR55 - Greg Dortch
WR56 - Tre Tucker
WR57 - Bub Means
WR58 - Demarcus Robinson
WR59 - Jalen Coker
WR60 - Mason Tipton
WR61 - Darius Slayton
WR62 - Alec Pierce
WR63 - Devaughn Vele
WR64 - Kayshon Boutte
WR65 - Troy Franklin |
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| Tight Ends |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
TE1 - Brock Bowers
TE2 - Travis Kelce
TE3 - Trey McBride
TE4 - George Kittle
TE5 - Evan Engram
TE6 - Kyle Pitts
TE7 - David Njoku
TE8 - Tucker Kraft |
| Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up |
TE9 - Dalton Kincaid
TE10 - Sam LaPorta |
| Tier 3 -- Streamers |
TE11 - Zach Ertz
TE13 - Dalton Schultz
TE14 - Pat Freiermuth
TE15 - Juwan Johnson
TE16 - Isaiah Likely
TE17 - Noah Fant
TE18 - Cade Otton
TE19 - Hunter Henry
TE20 - Grant Calvaterra
TE21 - Colby Parkinson
TE22 - T.J. Hockenson (Q)
TE23 - Ja'Tavion Sanders
TE24 - Tyler Conklin
TE25 - Jonnu Smith |
| Tier 4 -- You broke my heart |
| TE12 - Mark Andrews |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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