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Use ‘Link to PDF’ to view the full array of high-frequency, economic, and financial charts covered in this report
Link to PDF: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Real-Time Insights |
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Highlights |
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· COVID-19 is spreading at an accelerating rate in China. The seven-day moving average of daily cases climbed to 8,700, up from 4,000 on March 21, with cases spiking over recent days. On Sunday, Shanghai alone reported 8,000+ new cases. The majority of the city remains under lockdown, severely disrupting economic and financial activity, and illustrates the elevated risks of a wider COVID-19 outbreak in China. |
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· Retail and recreation visits have recovered from their omicron-induced lows, according to data from Google, but remain well below levels set during September-October last year and trended down in the last week. The seven-day moving average has recovered to ~10% below the pre-pandemic baseline compared to ~5.5% below baseline in October. Will this trend reverse as the economy reopens more fully? |
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· Consumer spending momentum rebounded in February, according to Visa's Spending Momentum Index, which is a measure of the breadth of consumer spending growth. Although spending momentum firmed in February, rising energy prices and weaker consumer confidence could weigh on this measure in March, particularly if low-middle income households cut back on discretionary spending. |
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· Used vehicle prices fell further in March, according to Manheim's Used Vehicle Value Index. The index has fallen from a peak of 236.3 in January to 222.4, a ~6% decline, although Manheim notes this is due partly to seasonal adjustments. |
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· Subway entries in New York City are less than half their pre-pandemic average, reflecting the durability of the shift to remote and hybrid working paradigms paired with still depressed tourism. Declining foot traffic and office worker density will likely weigh on local businesses and municipal tax receipts. |
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· U.S. raw steel production ticked up through the latter half of March but remains well below its 2021 peak. Surging energy and industrial commodity prices are likely to lift steel prices in the near term, while anecdotal evidence from industry participants suggests production is likely to rise further in the near term. |
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Week ahead: Trade balance, ISM Services Index (Apr 5); March 15-16 FOMC Meeting Minutes (Apr 6) |
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Link to PDF: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Mickey Levy, mickey.levy@berenberg-us.com
Mahmoud Abu Ghzalah, mahmoud.abughzalah@berenberg-us.com
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