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Link to full report and disclosures: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Real-Time Insights | |||||||
Highlights |
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· COVID-19 transmission in China is accelerating, with the seven-day moving average of daily cases rising to 20k+. Shanghai, an industrial and tech hub, enters another week of lockdown, which is likely to aggravate supply constraints. Strict "zero covid" policies will exact an increasingly heavy economic and social toll, reflected in mounting unrest among Shanghai residents chafing against lockdown amid food and grocery shortages. | |||||||
· Mobility data from Apple reflect the broad-based recovery of in-person activity. Driving, transit, and walking routing requests have now increased respectively to 75%, 25%, and 83% above January 2020 levels. In a sign of the ebbing effect of the pandemic, Apple will stop updating its mobility data beginning on April 14. | |||||||
· The recovery in restaurant activity in New York has stalled, with the seven-day moving average of seated diners flattening at 25% below its pre-pandemic level. Nationally, the number of seated diners has recovered close to pre-pandemic levels. | |||||||
· World container shipping spot rates have fallen 5% in the last three weeks and 15% ytd, but remain well above their pre-pandemic levels. A critical issue is whether shipping rates continue to retrace their pandemic rise, and if so, whether declines reflect easing supply constraints or moderating demand. | |||||||
· The U.S. oil and gas rig count increased to 689 from 673 in the prior week, the second largest weekly increase since January 2020. One-third of respondents to a survey of domestic oil and gas executives conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated the decision to expand domestic production was independent of the price of oil, reflecting shareholder demands for capital discipline. | |||||||
· Emmanuel Macron won 27.8% of the vote in the first round of voting for the French presidency and seems to be in a favorable position to win the run-off round on April 24. | |||||||
Week ahead: CPI (Apr 12); PPI (Apr 13); Retail Sales, U. Mich. Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (Apr 14); Industrial Production (Apr 15) | |||||||
Link to full report and disclosures: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Mickey Levy, mickey.levy@berenberg-us.com
Mahmoud Abu Ghzalah, mahmoud.abughzalah@berenberg-us.com
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