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Link to full report and disclosures: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Real-Time Insights | ||||||||
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· Visa's Spending Momentum Index slid to 94.8 in May (an index value of less than 100 indicates spending momentum is weakening) reflecting steep increases in gasoline prices that are pushing consumers to tighten their purse strings and base effects from exuberant spending in mid-2021 | ||||||||
· Measures of visits to retail and recreation locations, according to data from Google, have flattened, with the seven-day moving average of visits hovering at seven below the pre-pandemic baseline. Despite the flat mobility data, spending on experiences, dining out, etc. has increased notably in real and nominal terms. | ||||||||
· The U.S. added seven oil and gas rigs in the last week, lifting the total number of rigs to 740, a 270-rig increase from this time last year. The oil and gas well drilling subcomponent of industrial production has jumped 27% ytd as oil producers begin to respond to higher prices amid a drawdown in the stock of drilled but uncompleted wells. Nevertheless, the supply response to this bout of higher oil prices has been muted relative to previous oil-price highs. | ||||||||
· Container spot shipping rates continue to tick down, with Drewry's World Container Freight Rate Index falling to $7,500 / 40ft container, the lowest level since June last year bringing its ytd decline to 20%. Rates were under $1,800 /40ft container in February 2020. | ||||||||
· Job postings on Indeed continue to trend down across the U.S., Germany, and the UK although they remain well above their pre-pandemic levels. The decline in job postings in recent weeks has been particularly pronounced in the UK and Germany. Moderating economic activity is likely to be reflected in further declines in job postings in the coming months. | ||||||||
· Market expectations for the Fed funds rate in December 2022 have surged in recent weeks reflecting the Fed's shift to a more aggressive inflation fighting stance and upside risks to headline inflation and inflationary expectations. Fed funds futures are now pricing in a fed funds rate of 3.6% by year end, 80bp higher than what markets expected the year-end fed funds rate would be on June 1. | ||||||||
Week ahead: Existing Home Sales (June 21); MBA Mortgage Applications (June 22); Fed Chair Powell Testimony - Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress (June 22 - 23); Initial & Continuing Claims (June 23); New Home Sales, U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations June Final (June 24) | ||||||||
Link to full report and disclosures: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Mickey Levy, mickey.levy@berenberg-us.com
Mahmoud Abu Ghzalah, mahmoud.abughzalah@berenberg-us.com
© 2022 Berenberg Capital Markets, LLC, Member FINRA and SPIC
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