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Link to full report and disclosures: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Real-Time Insights |
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Highlights |
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· A sign of a cooling labor market, initial unemployment claims have trended up since April with the four-week moving average ticking up from 170k to 230k, although the level of claims remains low by historical standards. This will be a key indicator to watch for signs of a further deterioration in labor market conditions. | |||||||||
·The crack spread, a gauge of refiner margins has fallen from its record high in late June to ~$40 per barrel, but it remains well above its historical average. Tight inventories of refined product together with limited spare refining capacity will likely set a floor on gasoline prices, even as demand softens. | |||||||||
· Manheim's Used Vehicle Value Index declined 1.3% m/m in June, which together with a moderation in durable goods prices more broadly will weigh on headline and core inflation. Reports of a spike in defaults on used vehicle loans and a further easing in auto industry supply bottlenecks point to ongoing disinflationary pressures in the used vehicle market. | |||||||||
· The seven-day moving average of seated diners from reservations fell to 4% below the pre-pandemic baseline but has been volatile in recent weeks likely reflecting seasonal variation around July 4 and the holiday season. If in-person dining data continues to soften, could this mark the start of a pull back in discretionary spending amid a squeeze on real disposable incomes? | |||||||||
· Daily new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. have averaged just over 100k since early May, but given the rise of home testing actual case counts are likely much higher. While the spread of the highly transmissible omicron BA.5 variant could lead to another spike in cases, domestic economic activity appears to have largely decoupled from the course of the virus. | |||||||||
· Measures of mobility have trended down since June with the seven-day moving average of visits to workplaces and visits to retail and recreation locations down 33% and 9.8%, respectively, from pre-pandemic levels. To what extent might higher gasoline and transportation costs skew mobility data by limiting the number of trips people make remains to be seen. | |||||||||
Week ahead: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Jul 12); CPI, Fed Beige Book (Jul 13); PPI, Initial Claims (Jul 14); Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production, U. of Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectations (Jul. 15) | |||||||||
Link to full report and disclosures: Real-Time Insights, Economic and Financial Pulse
Mickey Levy, mickey.levy@berenberg-us.com
Mahmoud Abu Ghzalah, mahmoud.abughzalah@berenberg-us.com
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