| Dear Reader, Yesterday, I sent you the last essay in my five-part series, ending with Niall Ferguson and his belief that the post-WWII liberal international order is collapsing. Since there were many “big ideas” to think through in this series, here’s a brief recap of each essay. After I run through the essays, I have more to tell you about the personal video message I recorded that takes these “big ideas” to the next level. | 1. Jeffrey Gundlach: The Moment of Truth for the Secular Bond Bull Market Has Arrived. Anyone who started investing after 1981 has never experienced a bear market in Treasuries. With short-end Treasury yields now at their highest levels since 2008, and the 10-year yield breaking out of its long-term trend channel, could this be the end for the 36-year bond bull market? Where yields go from here will affect all asset prices and change how we invest. I believe this is the single most important trend investors need to pay attention to. | | | 2. George Gilder: The Man Who Is Laying the Foundations for a New Economics. I’ve long criticized the economics profession for its ambition to be a “hard science” and its use of models. That’s why George Gilder’s work is so interesting to me. He focuses on the real drivers of economic growth: entrepreneurs. When you read my summary of George’s ideas, it will change how you think about entrepreneurship, the economy, and the policies we should be pursuing. | | | 3. Karen Harris: The Declining Cost of Distance Is Going to Change Everything.The cost of distance—that is, the cost of moving information, people, and goods—is a key driver of business and individual decision-making. Because of technology, the cost of distance is falling rapidly. That is changing where and how businesses operate. And that will affect their stock prices. Further, the declining cost of distance is changing where you live and work. This has massive implications for real estate prices and your lifestyle. When I say this is one of the most critical concepts to grasp going forward, I mean it. | | | 4. Lacy Hunt: The Fed Has Put Itself Out of Business, Where to Now? With this installment, I cover a trend that has wide-ranging implications... not only for investors, but for everyone. That is, how the over-indebtedness of a country makes its economy resistant to fiscal and monetary stimulus. If you are allocating capital based on the potential effects of current or future stimulus packages, you need to understand this. No one understands this better than my friend Lacy Hunt. | | | 5. Niall Ferguson: What Does the End of The Liberal International Order Mean for Markets? The vast majority of us have only lived (and invested) during a period when the liberal international order—defined as the framework of rules, alliances, and institutions that has promoted economic liberalization around the world since 1945—was growing in strength. But the situation is changing fast. A backlash against decades of globalization is picking up steam. Support for populism is on the rise, and protectionist policies are coming back in style. Worse, this is happening at a time when the US is less willing to fill the global leadership role it has held since the end of WWII. How this trend develops has serious implications for financial markets and the society we live in. |
A personal video message coming your way, tomorrow In making this series, I learned (yet again) just how powerful interactions with great thinkers can be. I am lucky to have gained so much knowledge from my time with these five thinkers. My hope is that you have enjoyed reading about their “big ideas” as much as I have enjoyed writing them. I have a personal video message to send you tomorrow. Think of it as a conclusion to this series, and the gateway to what is next. If you enjoy learning about the “big ideas” shaping the future of the world, from the people working at the forefront, you’re going to like what I have to say. So, watch your inbox for an email from me tomorrow. I will reveal all then. Your excited to see the reactions to my message Analyst,
John Mauldin
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