| And it's everywhere you look | Coronavirus boosts Tesco |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for April 9th in 3:02 minutes.

🏃‍♀️ Finimized while limbering up for a Charmed TV show marathon in Boston, Massachusetts (9°C/49°F ☔️)

Today's big stories

  1. Recent economic data has shown that the global recession investors are so worried about actually began last month
  2. Our analysts look into a particularly niche market that still has the potential to give stocks a kicking – Read Now
  3. Grocery store chain Tesco’s annual update suggested it won’t be hit too hard by the coronavirus outbreak
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Peekaboo!

Peekaboo!

What’s Going On Here?

Recent economic data suggests the global recession that analysts have been predicting and investors have been dreading is already here.

What Does This Mean?

Wherever you look, there’s evidence of an imminent slowdown in – if not a total collapse of – economic activity. Looking Stateside? US exports via ocean freight were at less than half their level in early March than they were at the same time last year. Looking at Europe? Germany’s new car registrations fell 38% in March versus a year ago, and the UK’s dropped 44%. Looking further afield? Vehicle sales in South Africa tumbled 30%. And not to dig the boot in, but there are more than a few foreboding global economic surveys too…

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Psychic cyclicals.
“Early cyclical” companies like FedEx and Airbus – whose fortunes tend to follow the direction of the economy as a whole – have said it’s still too early to know how long this malaise will last, or how costly it’ll be. But they’re likely to notice the changing economic winds before anyone else: international logistics – which represents around half of FedEx’s revenue – could be one of the first things to pick up when countries reopen for business, while aircraft manufacturer Airbus will hope to see new plane orders flood in when airlines regularly start flying again.

Zooming in: Mon Dieu!
In an example of how the coronavirus shutdown is impacting economies, the Bank of France estimated on Wednesday that the French economy shrank 6% last quarter compared to the one before – the country’s biggest drop since after World War II. The French central bank reckons the economy contracted 1.5% for every two weeks of shutdown, but also that things might not be as bad this quarter as people get used to staying indoors.

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2/3 Premium

Outpacing The Market

As the economic effects of coronavirus leave consumers more strapped than a pair of Reeboks, the $2 billion sneaker resale market has fallen on tough times. But truly fresh kicks are still beating the stock market…

Get the full story in the Finimize app

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3/3

Caught Short

Caught Short

What’s Going On Here?

Tesco will be glad it stocked up on toilet paper when it had the chance: the UK’s biggest grocery chain reported annual results on Wednesday, and its stock fell 2%.

What Does This Mean?

Given that Tesco’s financial year ended in February, Wednesday’s update didn’t have much to say about the issue investors care about most: coronavirus. But the grocery chain did reveal its UK sales had recently risen 30% as consumers stockpiled food and essentials ahead of impending lockdown measures. The company also estimated it’d need to spend as much as $1.1 billion in additional staff wages and store costs, though it reckons the increased sales of food between now and August – when it hopes Britain will have returned to normal – should cover most of that bill.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Risks on aisle four.
One likely effect of Tesco’s tasty food sales is a lower profit margin, since the grocer typically earns less selling food than it does goods like clothes (whose sales have dropped). That seemed to concern investors, who pushed Tesco’s shares down on Wednesday. But they might've been more on the fence about the company’s bigger-than-expected dividend announcement, which Tesco argued is long overdue for investors who didn’t receive any payments in 2016 and 2017 following an accounting scandal. That may be, but it also leaves less cash in the bank if coronavirus proves more damaging than expected.

The bigger picture: Cash on aisle five.
Some companies in more precarious positions have rushed to raise money from new and existing shareholders. Case in point: ASOS, whose stock rose almost 30% on Wednesday after the online fashion retailer sold $300 million of new shares (tweet this). It had been unnervingly low on cash partly because of recent warehouse investments and partly because of the recent slowdown in consumer spending. But with this pick-me-up, investors were probably more confident it’d now survive the pandemic.

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💬 Quote of the day

“The little things? The little moments? They aren’t little.”

– Jon Kabat-Zinn (an American professor emeritus of medicine)
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🤔 Q&A · RE: Trial And Error

“What’s does it mean when the yield between 2-year and 10-year government bonds narrows?”

Christi in South Africa

“In normal times, short-term government bonds have a lower yield than those that are due to be repaid further down the line. That’s because investors are more confident governments will be able to meet their near-term obligations than long-term ones, which are more likely to be disrupted by some unforeseeable event. But when the current situation is uncertain, investors prefer to avoid imminent risk by buying up longer-dated bonds. That way, they improve their chances of being repaid in the future when things have calmed down. That rising demand for long-dated bonds pushes their prices up and their yields down (as the two move inversely), and toward those of shorter-term bonds. So analysts often use that as a signal of impending economic turbulence, like a recession.”

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🌏 Finimize Community

🙏 Ask and ye shall receive

Just imagine you could put that question you have about coronavirus-hit markets to, say, the Head of Global Macro and Investment Strategy at Fidelity International, Anna Stupnytska. Or maybe – just off the top of our heads – Sapna Shah, the Managing Director at Global Impact Investing Network. Oh wait, you totally can. Sign up below 👇

🌍 Finimize Workshop: How to Organise Your Own Finimize Virtual Event – 1pm UK Time, April 9th
🌍 Finimize HQ: Impact Investing In a Crisis with Jamie Broderick & Sapna Shah – 6pm UK time, April 9th
🇮🇳 India: Investing In Tumultuous Times with Gerard Colaco – 4pm IST, April 11th
🇬🇧 Finimize HQ: UK Economic Outlook with Tom Stevenson – 6pm UK time, April 14th
🇬🇧 Finimize HQ: Financial Health-Check with Jason Butler – 6pm UK time, April 15th
🇬🇧 Finimize HQ: Global Economic Implications of COVID-19 with Anna Stupnytska – 6pm UK time, April 16th
🇮🇳India: The Indian Macroeconomy with Achala Jethmalani – 7pm IST, April 16th
🇭🇰 Hong Kong: COVID-Proof Your Portfolio with Stephen Chiu – 9pm HKT, April 28th

⚡️ Lightning insights

Ray Dalio’s “all-weather portfolio” consists of 40% long-term bonds, 30% US stocks, 15% intermediate-term bonds, 7.5% gold, and 7.5% other commodities.

Idea being, the portfolio would perform well no matter what the economic weather – clearly a timely consideration. Find out how to create your own all-weather portfolio in our Pack, Investing Like Ray Dalio.

📚 What we're reading

👋 A message from our founder

“Hey guys. There’s a lot of news out there at the moment, and you ought to be feeling informed right now, not overwhelmed. So we’re here to keep things simple: we’ll bring you the stories, insights, and deep-dives you need to follow exactly what’s going on without getting lost in the coronavirus weeds. You can find it all in the Finimize app.”

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