Record Annual Decline in Builder Confidence

The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) has only been publishing builder confidence numbers since the mid 1980s. It's possible--if not likely--that the late 70s and early 80s would be worse than the present in terms of volatility. But even if we forget the fact that today's number represents the biggest year-over-year drop on record, the housing market is still obviously in distress. There won't be any ground-breaking insights here, so there's no sense in devoting too many words to a very simple phenomenon. Home prices rose at an unprecedented pace post-covid and were likely to face resistance regardless of the interest rate outlook. When we add the sharpest rate spike since the 1980's to the mix, it only accelerated the inevitable. One other potentially troubling facet of the current situation is that the 6 month outlook for sales has fallen below the headline confidence levels. This actually began happening shortly after the pandemic began, but it was never seen before that. This type of data isn't typically compared, so I'll leave it to you to draw your own conclusions. On the plus side, this could be as simple as housing market participants believing the brunt of the frenzy had run its course due to excessive home price gains and surprisingly strong sales in 2020 and 2021. On the downside, it could be builders' way of capitulating to the new reality for interest rates.

October 18, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Record Annual Decline in Builder Confidence The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) has only been publishing builder confidence numbers since the mid 1980s. It's possible--if not likely--that the late 70s and early 80s would be worse than the present in terms of volatility. ... (read more) MBS Commentary Fighting For Survival or Accepting Fate When salmon return to the river after spending a number of years in the ocean, they don't charge upstream immediately. They spend time moving in and out of large estuaries, stocking up on calories for the journey ahead and, some would say, accl... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Sneak By Without Much Change Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, but not without plenty of volatility in between. Mortgage lenders would prefer to set their rates once per day in a perfect world, allowing the bond market an hour or two of active trading and then... (read more) Rob Chrisman Subservicer, Processing, Non-QM, Culture Building Tools; USDA, FHA Changes; Freddie's Cash Flow Product Do you think putting together a loan is tough? How ‘bout a giant skeleton in your front yard? This dedicated individual has documented the process of his spooky creations on Instructables. This will be super helpful for when you create a giant skele... (read more) Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates Sneak By Without Much Change 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.15% +0.03% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.15% +0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.38% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.62% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.10% +0.02 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.35% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.65% +0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 10/18 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.38% +0.05% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.92% +0.26 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 6.09% +0.19 1.10 5/1 Yr. ARM 5.81% +0.45 0.20 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/13 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.81% +0.06 0.97 15 Yr. Fixed 6.12% +0.16 1.30 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.11 0.61 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/12 MBS / Treasuries Fighting For Survival or Accepting Fate UMBS 30YR 5.0 96.55 +0.11 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 96.55 +0.11 UMBS 5.5 98.72 +0.16 GNMA 5.0 97.25 +0.13 GNMA 5.5 99.25 +0.06 Pricing as of: 10/18 5:41PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.0066 -0.0059 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.431 -0.019 5 YR Treasury 4.222 -0.011 7 YR Treasury 4.128 -0.013 10 YR Treasury 4.007 -0.006 30 YR Treasury 4.027 +0.007 Pricing as of: 10/18 5:41PM EST Latest Video Digital Risk: Mortgage rates are set at a national level, but real estate i... Homebuilder sentiment drops eight points in October The 2pm Bond Report - October 18, 2022 The 9am Bond Report - October 18, 2022 Around the Web CNBC Homebuilder sentiment drops to half of what it was six months ago Calculated Risk Blog 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in September, California Sales off 30% YoY Wall Street Journal Home Buyers Flock to Florida Cities Devastated by Hurricane Ian Calculated Risk Blog Some "Good News" for Homebuilders Brookings Inst. 4 key takeaways from the September CPI report Calculated Risk Blog Housing October 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased, New High for 2022 Eye on Housing Single-Family Permits Decline in August 2022 CNBC 10-year Treasury yield hovers around 4% as stock markets rally on solid earnings CNBC Bank of America CEO says latest spending and savings data show that the U.S. consumer is healthy Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Increased 0.4 Percent in September CNBC The EU wants to limit spiking gas prices after 'excessive' moves this summer CNBC While global central banks take on jumbo hikes, Australia took a smaller step CNBC European markets expected to open higher after UK fiscal U-turns

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