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Bitcoin remains trapped in a no man's land between key levels of $7,870 – a bearish lower high created on Nov. 29 – and $7,087 – the low of the bearish inverted hammer created on Dec. 4.
A UTC close above $7,087 is needed to invalidate the lower highs setup and confirm a bullish reversal. That will likely yield a quick rally to $8,500-$8,700.
On the flip side. a move below $7,087 will likely attract stronger selling pressure, yielding a re-test of recent lows near $6,500. A drop to $7,087 could be seen if the descending 5-week moving average,currently placed above $7,500, continues to reject bullish attempts.
Long-term trend: Neutral
Bitcoin's monthly MACD histogram has dropped below zero, signaling a bearish reversal. The cryptocurrency is trapped in a five-month bearish channel.
Even so, the outlook remains neutral, as the MACD is a lagging indicator. Further, the miners’ reward halving, usually a price-bullish event, is due in May 2020.
With BTC looking oversold after a 50 percent drop from June highs above $13,800, a notable recovery ahead of the supply-cutting event can’t be ruled out – more so, as the 50-week MA has crossed above the 100-week MA, confirming the first golden bull cross since May 2016.
After all, the previous bull cross had marked the start of a long-term bull market. The cryptocurrency picked up a strong bid near $430 following the bull cross confirmation in May 2016 and charted its way to a record high around $20,000 in December 2017.
That said, the outlook as per the weekly chart would turn bullish only if and when prices break higher from the five-month long bearish channel.
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