Remarkable Absence of Mortgage Rate Volatility

It happens, but it's rare. A Fed "dot plot" day has come and gone with mortgage rates almost perfectly unchanged from the previous day. This speaks to the level of indecision not only in the market, but also among Fed members. First off, what's a "dot plot day?" The dot plot (or simply, "the dots") refers to a chart/table in the Fed's economic projections that shows where each Fed member sees the Fed Funds Rate at the end of the next few years. These projections only come out on 4 of the 8 Fed days per year and they've grown to be a leading source of volatility for financial markets on those days. Since it was already a foregone conclusion that the Fed would not be cutting rates today, the market was forced to take its Fed-related cues from the dots and from Fed Chair Powell's press conference. The latter was just slightly negative for rates (i.e. it implied some upward pressure), but the dots did no harm. After the dust settled, the underlying bond market was flat to slightly stronger on the day due to improvement that was in place several hours before the Fed announcement. Markets are closed tomorrow for the Juneteenth holiday, but will reopen on Friday.

June 18, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Remarkable Absence of Mortgage Rate Volatility It happens, but it's rare. A Fed "dot plot" day has come and gone with mortgage rates almost perfectly unchanged from the previous day. This speaks to the level of indecision not only in the market, but also among Fed members. First off, what's a "d... (read more) MBS Commentary Once Again: Today is Not About a Fed Rate Cut Fed day is here and there's a 0% chance of a rate cut. That's been the case for just over a month due a combination of April's jobs report and the stock market recovery in May (or the underlying events that helped facilitate it). In order to cu... (read more) Rob Chrisman HELOC, Marketing, Down Payment Products; STRATMOR Tech Survey; Compliance Based on Customer Expectations Today we hear from the U.S. Federal Reserve. We can expect no change to overnight fed funds. As pointed yesterday by Dr. Paul Brewbaker, the economist who spoke here at the MBA Hawai’i conference, the Fed can only shoot at one target at a time: infla... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.87% -0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.87% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.13% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.41% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.95% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.42% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.42% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/18 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.13% -0.03% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.84% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.97% -0.02 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/12 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.93% +0.01 0.64 15 Yr. Fixed 6.16% -0.09 0.66 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.93% +0.01 0.63 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/11 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.09 +0.03 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.09 +0.03 UMBS 6.0 101.05 +0.01 GNMA 5.5 99.29 -0.06 GNMA 6.0 100.93 -0.12 Pricing as of: 6/18 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3899 +0.0055 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.939 -0.014 5 YR Treasury 3.985 -0.006 7 YR Treasury 4.173 +0.001 10 YR Treasury 4.390 +0.006 30 YR Treasury 4.890 -0.001 Pricing as of: 6/18 5:31PM EST Latest Video Powell: Best way to help housing is restoring price stability and supportin... Single-family housing construction starts slump as homebuyers pullback Housing starts hit five-year low; jobless claims down Homebuilder confidence will rebound if tariffs ease, says Powers Advisory's... Around the Web CNBC Fed leaves rates unchanged, as expected CNBC Fed sees its preferred inflation gauge topping 3% this year, higher than previous forecast CNBC Mortgage demand drops, even as rates fall to the lowest since April Eye on Housing Sharp Drop in Multifamily Production Brings Overall Housing Starts Down Forex Live US May housing starts 1.256m vs 1.357m expected CNBC The Fed is likely to keep rates the same, but give a forecast that moves markets. What to expect Market Watch Jobless claims move lower, easing some concerns about labor market health CNBC Homebuilder sentiment nears pandemic low as economic uncertainty plagues consumers Calculated Risk Blog Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts CNBC U.S. oil prices hold near five-month high as Trump weighs Iran attack CNBC Treasury yields little changed as investors anticipate Fed's rate decision CNBC These are the sticking points holding up a U.S.-EU trade deal Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Decreased 0.2% in May

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