| Good morning Voornaam, Good morning and welcome to this edition of Ghost Mail, which is at least partially a rant about cautionary announcements.
The market only works if investors, traders, companies and everyone else have faith in the system. They need to believe that the information they are acting on is current and correct. This is why the concept of a cautionary announcement exists, as it forces companies to give an early warning when there's something major on the table and news of it might leak to the market. Generally, companies take a cautious approach to cautionaries (this makes it easy to remember what the good practice is). In some cases, companies are actually too quick to release them!
I distinctly recall that when I did the JSE Sponsor training, the thing to remember about cautionaries was that when you're in doubt, you should release one. Even if it's a bland cautionary, at least you're covered.
But at Renergen, they've pushed the boundary so far with the offer from soon-to-be-JSE-listed ASP Isotopes that I cannot see how the JSE won't act here. To go from nothing to a firm intention announcement is genuinely incredible. There's an independent board committee, there are irrevocables from shareholders - heck, it's even been to the Takeover Regulation Panel already! But no cautionary announcement.
If there are no repurcussions here, then I cannot see why any listed company would ever bother with a cautionary announcement again.
Moving on, Sasol's capital markets day is a strong reminder that the price of oil is on a sideways trajectory. They just want the Southern Africa business to be flat for the next few years, with all the growth expected to come from the international chemicals business.
Other financial updates came in from Alexander Forbes, Ethos Capital, Gemfields, Nutun (sigh) and Stefanutti Stocks.
These details and the Nibbles are available in Ghost Bites at this link>>>
For those interested in Calgro M3, they are back on Unlock the Stock this Thursday at 12pm. With a new CEO in the hot seat, I'm looking forward to unpacking the tricky recent results and the outlook for the company. As ever, attendance is free, but you must register here to be on the webinar and to pose your questions.
Investec is celebrating 100 episodes of their excellent No Ordinary Wednesday podcast, hosted by Jeremy Maggs. This episode looks back on four years that have been anything but dull, while considering the regional trends that will shape the years to come. I always enjoy these episodes and I highly recommend making time for them. Find it here>>>
As a break from listed company and macroeconomic news, you can enjoy Dominique Olivier's latest piece on the IP web related to Spider-Man. Sony and Marvel (part of Disney) have been at the negotiating table several times, showing just how much value is attached to iconic characters and the related opportunity to make money off them. Enjoy it here>>>
Have a great day! |
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| SATRIX: A Day in the Life of a Portfolio Manager at Satrix |
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| | | Ever wondered how the nuts and bolts of ETFs work? What goes into index tracking and making sure that it is achieved at the lowest possible cost? And are all indices created equal from a complexity perspective?
Lauren Jacobs (Senior Portfolio Manager at Satrix) shows you what a day in the life of a portfolio manager looks like.
Get ready to learn and be inspired at this link>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: April's droppers and whoppers |
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| There may have been many public holidays in April, but that didn't stop the market from reacting to the broader geopolitical turmoil. With recession concerns as a key theme, which stocks did well and which ones delivered a nasty drop? This podcast is an overview of recent big share price moves among larger local companies on the JSE, revealing some interesting trends. Ghost Wrap is brought to you by Forvis Mazars. You can find the recording and the transcript at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | Renergen laughs in the face of cautionary announcement good practice with the ASP Isotopes offer. Sasol's capital markets day is worth a look. Numbers came in from Alexander Forbes, Ethos Capital, Nutun and Stefanutti Stocks. Gemfields released the prospectus for the rights offer. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| Unlock the Stock - ASP Isotopes |
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| In the 52nd edition of Unlock the Stock, ASP Isotopes joined the platform for the first time to give investors insight into the company before it lists on the JSE later this year. The recording of the management presentation and interactive Q&A is available at this link>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Sony's stuck in a Spider-Man spiral |
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| | | Sony, once a post-war electronics wunderkind best known for pioneering devices like the Walkman and the Trinitron TV, now finds itself tangled in a web of its own making – one spun not from copper wire or silicon wafers, but from red spandex and Hollywood contracts. Dominique Olivier explains why the IP around Spider-Man is so complex in this entertaining piece>>> |
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| INVESTEC PODCAST: Episode 100 - a world in flux |
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| | | From a global pandemic to fractured supply chains, energy shocks, inflation spirals, rate hikes, AI disruption, war, and geopolitical realignment - the last four years have been anything but dull. The 100th episode of No Ordinary Wednesday is a discussion on regional trends that will shape the years to come. Get the insights in this podcast>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| Home Depot has maintained its full-year guidance, despite missing estimates for the first quarter. They don't plan to hike prices because of tariffs. This of course plays straight into Trump's narrative, with Home Depot pushing the pressure further up the value chain because they are a large retailer. Small businesses in the retail space have no such chance of putting pressure on suppliers, so my fear is that the tariffs will be fine for the largest retailers and really tough for the mom-and-pop shops.
To be fair, Home Depot's resilience here isn't just because of their ability to make tariffs their suppliers' problem. They've worked hard to diversify their supply chain, noting that by next year, no country outside of the US will represent more than 10% of Home Depot's purchases.
The approach to tariffs will become a key competitive advantage (or disadvantage) going forward. This is how capitalism works.
This week in Magic Markets Premium, we've covered Novo Nordisk. Straight after we released our report, the news broke of a chance in CEO at the company, so that gives you a great indication of how this has lost its shine. Does that mean that it is finally a buy? As our subscribers will find out in the research, the US pharma sector is treacherous, but is certainly filled with opportunity. |
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| Magic Markets: Mesh.Trade - Unlocking Private Markets |
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| | | Magic Markets: As the recent trend in IPOs and delistings on public markets tells us, an increasing number of companies are looking to private markets for their capital raising needs. This means that retail investors are being shut out of these opportunities, which is particularly problematic as these early-stage opportunities usually offer the highest potential returns.
Mesh.Trade is committed to increasing access for investors, which is why the platform is designed to enable issuers to raise debt and/or equity funding.
Connie Bloem joined us to talk about why access to good quality private assets is so important in the South African market. To learn more, listen to this podcast>>> |
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| Macroeconomic indicators and IG Markets macro update |
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| US stock futures are showing slight weakness this morning, with the Dow Industrial Average and S&P 500 futures down about 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures have dipped approximately 0.3%. This pullback comes after a strong six-day rally that brought the S&P 500 near all-time highs, but market sentiment has cooled amid renewed concerns over tariffs and economic growth.
Investors are confronting the reality that despite some easing in trade tensions, President Trump's tariffs remain elevated by historical standards, potentially impacting economic performance and corporate earnings, particularly in the retail sector.
European markets are expected to open flat today, following a session where European indices reached nine-week highs.
Asian markets showed modest strength, with Hong Kong and Tokyo gaining around 0.8%. The broader MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rose 0.5%, though Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.18%. Investor sentiment remains cautious due to high bond yields, concerns over fiscal health in developed economies, and stalled progress on trade deals.
The dollar index continues to weaken today, pressured by growing concerns about the US economic and fiscal outlook, as well as Moody's recent downgrade of US sovereign credit from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising debt and widening deficits.
The rand has strengthened against the weakened dollar, and the JSE All-Share Index is expected to open slightly lower this morning.
Gold prices have climbed to a two-week high, supported by the weaker dollar and escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Israel-Iran developments.
Oil prices have surged over 1% following reports that Israel is preparing strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions. The geopolitical risk is heightened by fears that Iran might retaliate by blocking oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R17.97/$ | US 10yr 4.52% | Gold $3,313/oz | Platinum $1,049/oz | Brent Crude $66.01
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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