| |
|
| Friday, October 18, 2024 |
| Hello there, and a happy Friday to you. Happy spooky season to all who celebrate! I attended a Halloween party last weekend dressed as a pickle. "I'm Pickle Gibbs!" It's an absurd reference from Rick and Morty, and it was a hit, at least as much as any cheap trick can be! |
| I love this time of year, obviously, because of football. Spooky season is also near the top of the list of reasons why, though! I love seeing how people choose to get weird and creative with their expression. I'm a kid at heart, if you couldn't tell from my job. Last year, I dressed up as Ash Ketchum, the protagonist from Pokémon. My niece and nephew absolutely loved it! |
| Happy spooky season, to all who celebrate. This Halloween, the FFT fam gets a special treat, as Dave Richard will be joining Dan and me for a Beyond the Box Score episode. That's in two weeks! As for this week's guest, we brought on another true titan of the Fantasy Football space. The YouTube commenters are calling it a Marvel-DC-like crossover episode. We're having fun with it! |
| Week 7 Beyond the Box Score episode: |
| Guest -- Mike Wright of the Fantasy Footballers |
| Mike joined us to examine rest of season value for some really interesting players. Y'all have let me know that you'd like more rest of season updates in the newsletter, and so that's what we're going to do today rather than a new 'In the Lab' installment. |
| Let's have a rest of season discussion -- Kenneth Walker RB1? |
| |
| Here's an awesome tweet from former FFT Beyond the Box Score guest, Danny Kelly: |
| |
| Here is a link to the point in the conversation with Dan and Mike at which we started discussing Kenneth Walker. He realistically is every-bit in the conversation for RB1 overall, if just comparing his efficiency metrics and expected Fantasy points with an expanded receiving role. Walker's route participation rate in healthy games was just 40% in his first two seasons. In Year 3, he has a 55% rate and has been above 50% in every game. It's not just "garbage time" receptions, Walker's receiving role has expanded just as the Seahawks coaching staff told us it would all summer. I wasn't quite sure if we could believe them. Zach Charbonnet is a dependable passing downs back. We've never seen Walker play an expanded role as a receiver. But we're seeing it now. |
| According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, only Alvin Kamara and Kyren Williams have averaged more expected Fantasy points than Walker at the RB position. The late-season schedule is not inviting (which is partially why I'm low on Charbonnet rest of season. Even if Walker were to miss time, matchups vs. the 49ers, Jets, Vikings, and Bears are no bueno), so I wouldn't take Walker straight up over Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson with awesome remaining schedules. I also do worry about re-injury with his oblique. This is an exciting time for Ken Walker, though, you can take him as high as RB1 in your rankings if you want to. He's a stud and only keeps getting better. |
| Rest of season RB rankings |
| |
| The first names that I wanna bring up are Kyren Williams and J.K. Dobbins. These two have been getting fed touches, and each had an early-season bye week. |
| |
| Dobbins is handling a workload that is unique from anything that he's had before. He saw 25 rush attempts in the first game out of the bye week. For Dobbins to make it to the first round of the Fantasy playoffs, he'd have to hold up under this workload for nine-straight games without a break. |
| Williams had a Week 6 bye and has a long road ahead of him. He'll need to hold up under heavy utilization for two months without a break. Both Williams and Dobbins have an injury history. If you're wondering why I'm a bit lower than consensus on these two, this is why. |
| It makes a lot of sense to stash Blake Corum and Kimani Vidal for this very reason. I am rooting for Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to heal up and for Williams and the Rams to make a playoff run. I'm rooting for Dobbins to keep crushing it. My Fantasy teams are prepared to benefit if either back is unable to make the long trek into winter. |
| |
| You could push Chase Brown as high as RB12 if you want to. He is trending straight upward, and who knows what to expect with the health of Zack Moss going forward. The schedule for most of the running backs ahead of Brown in the teens of my rest of season rankings are pretty rough. There's huge upside for a fun Fantasy finish from Brown. |
| If these backs -- Rhamondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, and Aaron Jones -- can hold up under a big workload, the Fantasy playoff schedule looks nice! Pollard, in particular, is probably the RB who I have ranked too low. His playoff schedule is fantastic. I just do not feel confident that he's going to make it there. The Titans are horrible. He's the only part of the offense that is working, and I think he's going to be asked to do way too much over the next month. |
| If you are in need of immediate help making it to the playoffs |
| |
| I'd target these players: |
| Kareem Hunt -- He's my top target anywhere that I'm 2-4 or 1-5 and looking to steal some wins to get back in contention. There's a chance that he's just hanging out on a team that already had RB's and doesn't need him. Go get him and ride him til the wheels fall off. |
| Chuba Hubbard -- He's one of the best Fantasy RB's on the board right now, and I expect Jonathan Brooks to be eased in. If you can get Hubbard before Week 7, that'd be incredible. He gets a prime spot vs. Washington. After that are three-straight games where the Panthers may be able to control the game on the ground and feed Hubbard 20+ touches. Hubbard has exceeded expectations so much in 2024 that there's a decent chance the team who rosters him has cruised to this point and might be looking to "sell high" on him. If you need him to get back in contention, make the move. |
| J.K. Dobbins -- Next up are four-straight games where the Chargers are likely going to be able to control the game on the ground as presumed favorites (ARI, NO, CLE, TEN). Who knows how long Dobbins can hold up under the heaviest workload he's ever shouldered as a pro, but he's probably going to be one of the highest scoring Fantasy RB over the next month. |
| |
| If you have a team that feels already positioned strongly for a playoff run |
| |
I'd target these players:
|
| Jonathan Brooks -- If you can afford it, here is your lottery ticket. If Andy Dalton is starting for the Panthers following the Week 11 bye, Brooks could be a top-10 Fantasy RB in PPR formats from that point on. The schedule is so dope. Every game from that point on offers shootout potential. |
| Blake Corum + Kimani Vidal -- Discussed above, if you didn't read the portion about Kyren Williams and J.K. Dobbins. |
| Tyjae Spears -- As discussed above, I'm a bit worried about Pollard. Spears is likely free in most Fantasy leagues at this point. If you can scoop him up and stash him away, he could be a big contributor in the end game. |
| Trey Benson -- Missed time for James Conner feels inevitable. The Fantasy playoff stretch run feels like Trey Benson time. The Cardinals have a chance to be playing with a large lead in any or all of those games. If the team is not playing well and out of contention, that also makes it more likely that Benson is getting reps. |
| |
| Rest of season WR rankings |
| |
| Of course, the Green Bay Packers WR that you really want is Jayden Reed. He is not cheap, though! I have him at WR10 rest of season, and everyone tells me that I am far too low on him. |
| I thought that Mike brought up some important perspective on Reed on Beyond the Box Score. His Week 1 performance is really boosting his efficiency numbers, and the circumstances in that game were weird. His role really hasn't increased at all, and Jordan Love still isn't targeting Reed like a WR1. Clearly, Reed is on an upward trajectory that is moving faster than either Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs. Still, it's interesting to me that their production is so similar when all three players have shared the field. |
| |
| |
| I wonder if Watson and Doubs might both be undervalued. I want as many pieces of this Green Bay offense as possible going forward. |
| |
| |
| Surely by now you have heard me make the case for Drake London as a Fantasy WR1, but in case you haven't, here's a three-tweet thread detailing his awesome Fantasy outlook. |
| |
| |
| If you have a team that feels already positioned strongly for a playoff run, I'd target these players: |
| Nico Collins -- If you can afford to wait, move Collins up to WR7 just behind Malik Nabers. If you're undefeated and can afford to truly chase pure upside, Collins is WR1. The Texans close the Fantasy season out with potential shootouts against Miami, Kansas City, and Baltimore. |
| Puka Nacua -- The schedule is not ideal, but if you can take a chance on Nacua, I think that makes sense. He'd be in the same range as DeVonta Smith and Mike Evans if I knew he would return to complete health at some point in the next month and I didn't need imminent help at WR. |
| Jaylen Waddle -- It sounds like Tua Tagovailoa is coming back. Waddle was ranked as my WR12 overall entering the season. He's an absolute stud. He produced 150 receiving yards on 52 routes run (2.88 yards per route run) with Tua at QB earlier this season. His per-route data was better than ever before last year, it just flew under the radar because Waddle couldn't stay on the field. He's healthy now and could repay his drafters for missed time if Tagovailoa makes a triumphant return. Or you could steal him from his desperate drafter. |
| |
| If you are in need of immediate help making it to the playoffs, I'd target these players: |
| Tank Dell -- I'm lower than consensus on Dell for the long run, but he makes a ton of sense as an addition for a team in immediate need of help. |
| |
| He's lined up for a likely shootout vs. a Green Bay defense that can't get any pressure on the QB, so C.J. Stroud may have lots of time to deliver downfield strikes to Dell in Week 7. After that, he faces a soft Colts secondary. Dell could realistically be a top-10 Fantasy WR scorer over the next two weeks. |
| Darnell Mooney -- Vegas has been giving the Falcons some of the loftiest implied point totals each week, which I think makes sense with how fast and effectively Zac Robinson's offense is playing offense is playing. Mooney struggled a bit in a poor schematic matchup in Week 6, so you may be able to acquire him relatively cheap. |
| Next up are three-straight potential shootouts: |
Week 7 -- Seahawks
Week 8 -- Buccaneers
Week 9 -- Cowboys |
| Jordan Addison -- I'm wary of Addison's long-term outlook, but he will probably be second on the Vikes in targets in the short-term as T.J. Hockenson is eased in. The upcoming schedule is dope. |
Week 7 -- Shootout vs. DET
Week 8 -- Rams defense
Week 9 -- Colts defense
Week 10 -- Jaguars defense |
| |
| |
| Rest of season QB rankings |
| |
| |
| I'm not so sure that the Russell Wilson experience is going to go well for Pittsburgh. This feels like an awesome time to scoop Justin Fields if that makes sense for your team. |
| Rest of season TE rankings |
| |
| |
| I owe Tucker Kraft an apology, I was not familiar with his game. Something like that, at least. I was not giving this guy enough props for what he's done as a receiver at the pro level. If you sold high on him last week, I think that was a fine and reasonable decision, as long as you got a decent haul back for him. It would not surprise me at all if he settles in as TE10 behind Dalton Kincaid and T.J. Hockenson, in which case, you aren't missing out on that much if you traded him away. His target rates are super low, regardless of what I discussed with Mike and Dan on the podcast. |
| I just wanted to make sure to update y'all on where I am at regarding Kraft as a player. He's dope. It's totally okay to admit that you did not know something! It's cool to learn! I think so, at least. |
| Alrighty, I'm outta here. I hope that you have a spectacularly spooky weekend! See you on Sunday! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
| |
| | | | | NFL | | Big Ten | CJ Stroud and Jordan Love face off while other teams hope new faces pay off after this week's monster trades! Watch your local game live beginning at 1 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
| | A Top 25 matchup is LIVE at Big Time with the Fighting Illini hosting the Wolverines! Watch live at 3:30 ET this Saturday on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
|
|
| |
| |
