| | | | Friday, September 6, 2024 | | If you've been reading this newsletter all season, you're surely aware that I've been a pretty big Reynaldo Lopez skeptic. And I think it's time to admit it was one of my worst takes of the season. | | But, I want to be clear about one thing: It's mostly because Lopez has, rather improbably, become the best version of himself down the stretch after coming back from an elbow injury. He struck out 11 Rockies at home Thursday night, his second double-digit strikeout effort of the season – and both have come in his four starts since coming back from his injury. | | Before the injury, Lopez was enjoying a tremendous season of course, with a 2.06 ERA that would have led the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. But his peripherals were significantly worse, with an xERA nearly two runs higher than his ERA while throwing significantly less than six innings per start and having his workload carefully monitored overall. It was a profile that looked superficially excellent, but was actually a lot less valuable than it appeared, and it made him one of the most obvious sell-high candidates in the league. | | |
Only he went out and, somehow, got a lot better after his injury. This is pretty amazing, seeing as this is the first season Lopez has been a starter this late into the season since 2019. At a time when all logic would dictate Lopez would be running out of gas, he's actually seen a significant velocity bump (96 mph since coming back from the injury), while his slider is better than it has ever been, with a whiff rate over 50% over his past four starts. | | It's not a stretch to say this is the best we've ever seen from Lopez. He has 34 strikeouts in 23 innings since coming back from the IL with just five walks and a 2.61 FIP to go with his 1.96 ERA in his past four starts, and while he still seems limited to pitch counts in the 90s, that's been enough for quality starts in three of his past four. With an upcoming schedule that looks to include the Nationals and Marlins in two of his final four starts, Lopez may very well end up putting a league-winning finish to his breakout season. | | I can't say I saw it coming. Kudos to him for putting it all together here down the stretch run. Here's what else you need to know from Thursday's action around MLB: | | | | Friday's waiver targets | | | | Matt Wallner, OF, Twins (28%) – The thing about Wallner is, the flaws in his game are so obvious that he might just never be able to truly put it all together. But this is now two seasons in a row where he's just gotten absurdly hot in the second half, making the upside clear if he ever does figure it out. This season, Wallner has hit .299 with 10 homers in 45 games since being recalled from Triple-A on July 7, a near-40-homer pace, and he isn't really showing any signs of slowing down – he's even started 13 of his past 14 games. There's a 33% strikeout rate to go along with that, and that's right on the border of being too high to sustain viable Fantasy production even with Wallner's power. But he's locked in right now and is worth using down the stretch, especially with only one lefty projected on the schedule for next week. | | Cody Bradford, SP, Rangers (60%) – Bradford's value for 2025 is going to be fascinating to discuss, because it sure looks like he's emerged as a viable starting option for Fantasy … except the sample size is going to be way too small to really say that with confidence. After limiting the Angels to just one run in six innings of work Thursday, he now has a 3.05 ERA for the season, with elite command, solid results on balls in play, and even a surprisingly decent 56 strikeouts in 62 innings of work. Add it all up, and he looks like a poor man's George Kirby . Whether he'll be able to sustain this success next season is an open question – and it's fair to wonder if he'll be able to sustain it against the Diamondbacks and their second-ranked offense vs. LHP in his next start. That's a tough one, though his next start would likely be against either the Blue Jays or Mariners, and I think I'd be willing to trust Bradford against either, so he's worth picking up even if you don't use him this week. | | | | Ty France, 1B, Reds (20%) – Way back in spring, I thought France had some sleeper appeal, and maybe he just needed a change of scenery to live up to it. He was ultimately DFA'd by the Mariners, but has been a really solid addition to the Reds lineup since joining them, hitting .344 with four homers, 12 runs, and 12 RBI over his past 27 games – and he has started eight games after going deep Thursday. It's not ideal that the Reds are playing all seven of their games away from their excellent home park next week, but if you're looking for a CI in a deeper league, France could still be worth a look. | | Rhett Lowder, SP, Reds (29%) – I wish I could be more excited about Lowder's first career quality start Thursday against the Astros . He limited them to just four hits over 6.1 shutout innings, which is pretty great … but it came with a less-great 1.26 ERA thanks to four walks, while he struck out just three in this one. He has walked eight over his first 10.1 innings of work, with nine strikeouts, and just hasn't quite looked like he's ready to be a difference-maker at the MLB level. On the other hand, with two starts on the schedule next week, against the Cardinals and Twins, I think he could be pretty useful, especially in H2H points leagues. | | Martin Perez, SP, PIT (33%) – There have been some less-than-ideal showings recently, but on the whole, Perez has been pretty solid since joining the Padres, and he just limited the Tigers to five hits over 6.1 scoreless innings Thursday. He struck out five and walked just one, and now has a 2.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 33 strikeouts over seven starts with the Padres. He isn't a must-start option, but as a SPARP against the Giants, I don't hate the idea of streaming him. | | Jonny DeLuca, OF, Rays (3%) – DeLuca is starting to make a little bit of an impact for the Rays, hitting .321 with two homers and six steals over his past 15 games. I don't think there's likely to be much more than fringe power in this profile, but he hasn't struck out multiple times in a game since Aug. 10, a stretch of 18 starts, and that should help the batting average (and steals as a result) play up, making him a viable option in Roto leagues if you need that specific skill set. | | | | News and Notes | | Bryce Harper was in the lineup Thursday after getting hit by a pitch on his elbow on Wednesday. | | Astros manager Joe Espada said that the hope is Kyle Tucker will be activated on Friday. It's been a long recovery process for Tucker, who was originally supposed to be just day to day back in June, with an injury that was seemingly misdiagnosed as a bruise. Let's hope he can get back to being a first-round caliber player down the stretch, though given how long he's been away, I can't say there's much of anything that could happen from here on out that would impact my view of Tucker for 2025. | | Ketel Marte could return this weekend against the Astros. | | Hunter Greene threw a bullpen on Thursday, his first time throwing off the mound since being diagnosed with right elbow inflammation. He hasn't been ruled out for the season, though he's obviously very short on time at this point. | | Jacob deGrom will make his next start at Double-A on Saturday. He is 75% rostered and could face the Mariners in his first game back, which is pretty interesting. He might be worth getting into your lineup for that one even if he only pitches four or so innings. | | Alec Bohm has missed six straight with left hand soreness. | | Luis Gil was activated ahead of his start on Friday. He could still be moved to the bullpen for the stretch run. | | The Astros are skipping Ronel Blanco's next turn in the rotation. They have a stretch of 16 games without an off day later this month, and Blanco will return to the rotation then. | | Byron Buxton will be re-evaluated after renewed soreness in his right hip. There might not be enough time for him to get back if this setback is serious. | | Matt McLain is pain-free and has been cleared to resume baseball activities. He's yet to make his season debut, had shoulder surgery earlier in the year, and then a stress reaction in his rib cage. | | Dean Kremer has been cleared to start Friday. He took a line drive off his forearm in his previous start. | | Reese Olson began a rehab assignment on Thursday. He threw two scoreless innings at Triple-A and got up to 39 pitches. He's been out since July with a shoulder injury, but could be back for his final few starts if all goes well. | | Austin Hays was placed on the IL with a kidney infection, retroactive to September 2. | | Max Kepler went on the IL with left patellar tendinitis. | | The Rays are promoting one of their pitching prospects, Mason Montgomery, but he's expected to work out of the bullpen. It's a name to keep an eye on for Dynasty, mostly. | | Thursday's Standouts | | Blake Snell, Giants vs. ARI: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – As far as I can tell, there was no injury here. It seems like the Giants just pulled Snell after a very rough, 42-pitch inning, which is understandable, but so very frustrating for Fantasy. When he's at his best, Snell is as good as just about any pitcher on the planet, but this is now three or fewer innings in two of his past three starts. The whole thing with Snell is that, once he figures it out, he tends to stay figured out for a while. I'm not sitting him next week, but I sure wish I could feel better about starting him. | | Pablo Lopez, Twins @TB: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Entering this start, Lopez had thrown just 24 pitches all season at 97 mph or harder; he had 20 such pitched in this one, including his first three pitches ever over 98 mph. He was clearly amped up, and it reflected in the robust strikeout numbers. Lopez got off to that miserable start to the season, but he's had a 2.51 ERA over his past 13 starts and seems likely to more or less end up where you expected him to by the end of the season. There's more ERA volatility than you'd like, but he's an ace otherwise. | | Hunter Brown, Astros @CIN: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Brown has a 1.78 ERA over the past 10 starts and now actually has his season-long ERA down to 3.41; pretty remarkable stuff from a guy who had an 8.89 ERA on May 10. He's had a remarkable turnaround, and while I don't necessarily buy that he's just an ace forever now, I do think Brown's overall season numbers are pretty indicative of what we can expect from him in 2025. | | Ranger Suarez, Phillies @MIA: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – Suarez has regressed more or less to where I expected him to after his hot start to the season, but I'm still a little annoyed that we can't know for sure how much of his regression was to be expected vs. the result of that recurring back injury he dealt with. My suspicion is this would have happened anyway because Suarez is a good-but-not-great pitcher by nature who was just having a hot couple of months, but if you wanted to argue the injuries are the reason his season went sideways, I couldn't argue too strongly. | | Bryan Woo , Mariners @OAK: 5 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – It's kind of annoying to see Woo take a step back after a couple of deeper outings, but it's still worth noting that he threw 88 pitches in this one, so it wasn't really a pitch count issue like earlier in the season; he just wasn't quite as effective as normal. His fastball especially gave up some loud contact, so the fact that he was able to pitch around that while having to rely more than usual on his secondaries seems like a good sign, all things considered. Woo's constant injury issues early in the season still loom in the back of my mind, but at this point, I'm pretty much bought in on him as a must-start pitcher if he can stay healthy. | | Taj Bradley , Rays vs. MIN: 7 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – This was kind of the platonic ideal of a Taj Bradley start – tons of whiffs and strikeouts to get excited about, but too much loud contact to actually be as valuable as you want it to be. The emergence of his splitter earlier in the summer seemed to mitigate those issues, but he's lost the feel for the pitch lately, and he started fading it in this one; without that, the command probably just isn't good enough for Bradley to be much more than average in run prevention (at best). The flashes will still be impressive, but until he figures out a sustainable way to solve that issue, I don't think he's someone you can trust in Fantasy. | | Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks @SF: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – Kelly's changeup was working excellently in this one, as he generated six of his 12 whiffs with it, but I'm not really ready to buy back in. He still gave up 10 hard-hit balls, with an overall average exit velocity of 94.5 mph, so he was probably lucky to avoid more damage; maybe playing in San Francisco helped mitigate that. Either way, Kelly still has a whole lot more to prove before I'm willing to trust him, even against a pretty beatable Rangers lineup next week. | | Brent Rooker, OF, Athletics – Rooker is going to be one of the most fascinating players in Fantasy to rank for 2025. He entered the season as a pretty cheap, overlooked source of power, but that's just about all he was supposed to be. And yet here we are on Sept. 6 and he's eighth in the majors with a .298 batting average to go along with his 34 homers – and he's even chipped in eight steals! Rooker has just been one of the best players in Fantasy this season, an outcome I don't think anyone saw coming. And here's the thing: His underlying numbers suggest it's not just a fluke, as he has a .397 xwOBA to go along with his .399 actual mark. Why shouldn't he be a top-50 pick next year? | | Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Rockies – Tovar hasn't become the superstar we hoped he would be, but he's having a very nice season for Fantasy, hitting .270 with 22 homers and six steals after he had one of each Thursday. The overall profile is still fairly middling – it would help if he ran more – but given the step forward he's taken this year, maybe there is still room for a bit more growth. Of course, on the other hand, he has a .286 xwOBA compared to his .321 actual wOBA, so the underlying data doesn't suggest there's a ton of room to grow from here. | | | | | | | | NFL Kickoff | | Big Ten on CBS | New season, new rules, new action and it all starts SUNDAY! Watch your local game live this Sunday at 1 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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