Postcards From The Fringe

Welcome! If this is your first time reading one of my postcards, catch up on my back issues here. And if you have questions or comments, shoot us a note anytime here or at feedback@rogueeconomics.com.

Risking Bad Weather to Check Off the Bucket List

By Tom Dyson, Editor, Postcards From the Fringe

DRIGGS, IDAHO – There was six inches of snow on the ground. The thermometer read 6 degrees Fahrenheit…

We got dressed, left the Super 8 motel, and drove to the entrance to Yellowstone National Park.

“All roads in the park are closed due to snow,” said the sign at the entrance gate…

[Featured: The One Big Threat You Face on November 3rd.]

End of a 12,000-Mile, 150-Day,
Backroad-Only Adventure

Greetings from our winter bolthole in Driggs…

Five months ago, we set out on a 12,000-mile, 150-day, backroad-only road trip to see America.

We visited all the important places we wanted to visit except Yellowstone National Park and Grand Teton National Park…

There were millions of other tourists visiting Yellowstone and Teton when we first came through Wyoming in August. (This year, several national parks have reached or broken records for number of visitors.)

We decided to skip them and come back later in the season when they weren’t so busy.

We went back last week…

Now that we’ve been to Yellowstone and Teton, we’ve checked off all the “priority places” on our “Things to See in America” bucket list.

To celebrate, Kate and I opened a bottle of Templeton Rye and poured out a couple of glasses…

“Great trip,” I said.

“Cheers,” she said.

Risking Bad Weather

We risked bad weather to visit Yellowstone and Teton so late in the year, but we got lucky…

Our first day in Yellowstone was great. (I told you all about it in Friday’s postcard.)

But as we left the park for the night, it started to snow, and we got stuck near the north entrance until a snow plough could get us out.

On our second day, we were delayed by several hours while they cleared the roads, but then we had a great day in the snow…

Here we are…

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Our kids love snow. They were born and raised in Florida
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West Thumb geyser basin in Yellowstone
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Upper Falls of the Yellowstone River
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Winter is here for Yellowstone
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Grand Teton National Park

– Tom Dyson

P.S. This is the simplest way to see how many Americans COVID-19 has killed. This chart shows the number of deaths in America – from all causes – for each of the past 6 years, adjusted for total population growth. The red line represents deaths in 2020…

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FROM THE MAILBAG

In the mailbag, the bitcoin debate continues… for one reader, the Dyson family’s backpacking adventure stirs up memories from long ago… and finally, an argument against the End of Oil, after Wednesday’s postcard – “The Great Contrarian Trade of 2020”…

Reader comment: I have really enjoyed your adventures around the world and look forward to you writing a book about the places you’ve explored. That way I can duplicate your travels one day.

I currently read way more newsletters than I probably should. Many of the guys at Bill Bonner’s endorse and recommend owning some bitcoin in a portfolio. Also, you’ve stated that Porter Stansberry is a friend of yours. He, along with most of his newsletter writers, believe having an allocation to bitcoin is a good idea. I believe even Doug Casey and his guys recommend an allocation to bitcoin.

Are you telling us to absolutely own zero bitcoin? Not even a small allocation? None? Just wanted to make sure. I hope you enjoy the ski season. Don’t forget helmets for everyone. Head injuries are a real danger.

Tom’s response: Great question. And you’re right… Just because I say bitcoin is worthless doesn’t mean you shouldn’t allocate a small percent of your portfolio to it, as a sort of “just in case” call option on much higher prices. Personally, I’m not going to do this, because I’m not afraid of missing out on a bitcoin bull market. I’m confident there’ll be more “bitcoins” in the future that I have much higher conviction in…

Reader comment: No value supporting bitcoin? Only if you think that it has no utility, you don’t recognize its philosophy, you don’t care about self custody and independence from the banks, and you place no value in software. The software value proposition is important and easily substantiated: To wit, large scale, revenue generating businesses have been built on open source software, such as Linux, and proprietary code-based giants, like Facebook.

Tom’s response: I admire the elegance and innovation of bitcoin, but I’m a pragmatist and bitcoin doesn’t solve any problems in the marketplace that the free market couldn’t solve more efficiently if the government would get out of the way…

In other words, value and utility in the marketplace isn’t deserved, it’s discovered…

Reader comment: Love your picture of Kate and the children. You have certainly been leading an unusual life but boy so interesting. I live in Hampstead, England. A good while ago, I drove up behind an old, large English car with the picnic basket on the back. I later learnt it was a family traveling the world. I think they had started in Australia and were in England.

You all look very well; keep away from the bug! Enjoy your stay, every good wish.

Reader comment: You might like to have a look at the Allam Cycle, which has just been introduced for electricity generation. It’s a modified version of the Brayton Cycle (for gas turbines) for gas turbines and is designed to sequester all the CO2 produced. It runs on natural gas or gasified coal. It can have a higher thermodynamic efficiency than the Brayton Cycle, so it could give emission-free electricity from fossil fuels cheaper than many current power plants.

8 Rivers Capital has financed a 50 Mwh demonstration plant which has been running in Texas for a year or two, and a full-scale 300 Mwh plant should fire up next year. Big Oil is starting to pile in. It could save their bacon.

Tom’s response: I’ll look into this. An emission-free solution for electricity generation from fossil fuels would be an incredible innovation…

And as always, thanks to everyone who wrote in! Please keep writing us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT…

Dire Numbers – Time to Cash Out?

“The largest, fastest change” we’ve ever seen…

Tiger 21, a club of 800 ultra-rich investors, recently started hoarding cash.

“We see no easy way out,” warns Bank of America.

Jeff Bezos—the world’s richest man—recently dumped $4.3 billion in stock.

What is going on?

The alarm bells are ringing. And what you do NOW will determine your future.

Jeff Brown – arguably America’s most accurate investor – reveals the strange “division” happening in the market right now…

Watch This Urgent Briefing Now.


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