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| Tuesday, May 28, 2024 |
| I'm going to assume you already know about Ronald Acuna's season-ending knee injury, his second torn ACL in the past four years, this time in his left leg. It's an injury that ends a frustrating season before Acuna ever really looked like himself, and leaves some pretty significant questions about how to value him for 2025 and beyond – not to mention, obviously, a gigantic hole in the lineup of every single person who drafted him No. 1 overall this season. |
| It's the biggest news to come out of the long holiday weekend, and I wrote about what you might be able to do to at least try to replace him in reaction to the news Monday, which you can read here. But I don't want to spend too much time focusing on that injury in today's newsletter because, well, we've just got so much else to get to from the long weekend. My thoughts about Acuna's injury, who to consider adding, and who to consider trading for in his absence are there, and I spoke with Frank Stampfl on an emergency FBT podcast Sunday about the same topic, which you can listen to here. |
| Kyle Bradish might be back back |
| Despite Bradish's spring elbow injury, his velocity remains high compared to last season. This presents a double-edged sword: while his performance is promising, questions linger about his durability. Overall, I have few concerns about Bradish's performance. If I'm considering selling high, it's primarily due to the increased possibility of injury. |
| Hunter Greene might be breaking out |
| I don't know if it's because he's just getting lost in the shuffle or because nobody believes in it, but I'm genuinely surprised at how little hype there is around Greene right now, given his 3.06 ER and 2.55 xERA so far. His strikeout rate is down to a career-low 26.7%, but that's still a terrific number, especially combined with significant improvements in quality of contact allowed. Greene's fastball is getting a bit more rise than in the past, and he's commanding it better, leading to an elite .241 xwOBA on the pitch right now – it was .345 last season. Quality of contact metrics take a long time to stabilize for pitchers, so skepticism isn't unreasonable, but I think there might be an opportunity to buy high on Greene just because of how little anyone else seems to be buying in. |
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| George Kirby, Pablo Lopez are going through it |
| Lopez's ERA has ballooned to 5.25 while Kirby's is up to 4.33 as both are really struggling in May. I'm more optimistic about Lopez figuring things out and becoming the ace we expected him to be, because the strikeouts and walk rates are both still elite, but I'd be trying to buy low on both with the expectation that they'll each shave at least a run off their current ERAs moving forward – in Lopez's case, I'd bet on close to two runs, as evidence by his 3.25 xERA. It's been frustrating to have both on your roster – I actually have both in one league – but they've got much better days coming in the future. |
| Justin Verlander turned back the clock |
| It was against the Athletics, so the caveats we typically apply there are worth keeping in mind. But this was the first time we've seen the big strikeout upside from Verlander since he came back this season, as he racked up 15 swinging strikes in this one, including at least three on his slider, curveball, and fastball. Verlander still does a good job of limiting hard contact – he's in the 91st percentile in hard-hit rate allowed so far this season – so if he can rediscover the strikeouts, there could still be some upside here. |
| Some stars are locking in |
| Jose Ramirez homered three times this week and is 14 for 41 with six homers, five doubles and 27 combined runs and RBI over his past 10 games. He had a .752 OPS in his first 43 games prior to that, and he's still a first-round caliber player in my rankings. Julio Rodriguez doubled his homer total for the season with two over the weekend. He remains maybe the most obvious buy-low candidate at hitter, and a perfect target for those of you who lost Acuna. Corey Seager started turning things around about two weeks ago, and he's now hitting .351/.478/.919 with seven homers in his past 10 games after three homers this weekend. I'm afraid you missed whatever buy-low window might have been there, unfortunately. Or, fortunately, if you have him on your team and were getting frustrated. |
| There's a whole bunch more from this weekend you need to know about, obviously, and we'll get to the biggest news in the rest of today's newsletter – and you can check out the FBT podcast episode from this morning as Frank Stampfl and I dive deep on everything you might have missed. |
| But we've got to keep on moving along, too. So, we've got the top waiver-wire targets from the weekend as well as Monday's action, plus some standout performances and more. Let's get to it. |
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| Tuesday's top waiver targets |
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| Mackenzie Gore, SP, Nationals (76%) – That's three straight where Gore has thrown at least six innings, with 20 strikeouts to six walks in 19.1 innings in that stretch. The growth of his changeup makes this the best version of Gore we've ever seen, and someone who needs to be rostered in all leagues. |
| Braxton Garrett, SP, Marlins (50%) – Garrett's overall 5.30 ERA is still pretty ugly, but all of a sudden, he has 19 strikeouts in 18.2 innings with just three walks, and a 3.28 ERA after he shut out the Diamondbacks over the weekend. Garrett is no ace, but he had a 3.63 ERA and 1.18 WHIP between 2022 and 2023, and should be rostered in pretty much all leagues. |
| Ryan Bliss, 2B, Mariners (2%) – The speed is the main draw with Bliss, who has 28 steals in 50 games this season after stealing 55 last year. However, he's not just some slap hitter, with 30 homers dating back to the start of last season, though he needs to sacrifice contact to get to that power, which is a limitation in his skill set. The likeliest outcome is he's not a difference maker for Fantasy, but that speed makes him worth a look in deeper categories leagues. |
| Ian Happ, OF, Cubs (66%) – Hamstring injuries followed Happ throughout the spring and into the start of the season, which might explain the slow start, as he had just a .635 OPS as last as May 13. However, in his past 10 games, Happ has three homers and three doubles, a sign that he's starting to turn things around. When he's right, Happ is pretty much a must-start outfielder, and he's available in more than one-third of CBS Fantasy leagues, so I'm looking for him anywhere he isn't rostered. |
| Nick Gonzales, 2B, PIT (27%) – Gonzales is a former first-round pick and top-50 prospect who fell out of favor after a pretty brutal first taste of the majors in 2023, but he never stopped hitting in the minors. Gonzales is the owner of a .300/.391/.531 line at Triple-A, albeit with little of the over-the-fence pop or stolen base upside we're typically looking for in Fantasy. But he's hitting well enough right now for the Pirates – .286/.359/.482 with very good underlying data – and playing pretty much everyday, that I think he's worth a look as a MI option. |
| Keibert Ruiz, C, Nationals (26%) – Ruiz was being drafted as a top-15 catcher this spring, but a brutal slump that saw him post an OPS below .400 through the season's first 24 games saw him dropped in many two-catcher leagues. But he's hitting .435/.417/.696 over the past nine games, and might have been dismissed by some Fantasy players a bit too soon. He still makes a ton of contact and should be a valuable source of batting average if nothing else, at a position where that remains incredibly hard to find. As a No. 2 catcher, Ruiz still has plenty of value. |
| Jonathan India, 2B, Reds (46%) – India hasn't turned his season around quite as dramatically as some of the other names here, but he did have a nice weekend, driving in six runs and scoring three over four games, with his third homer of the season. There's still a ton of upside in this Reds lineup, especially since I would expect him to move back up closer to the top once he gets going. I'm willing to bet he will. |
| Robert Gasser, SP, Brewers (47%) – Despite very good results overall, there didn't seem to be much reason to buy into Gasser when he had just six strikeouts in his first 17 innings of work. However, strikeouts were rarely an issue for Gasser in his climb up to the majors, and wouldn't you know it, he found those in his start against the Cubs Monday, fanning seven over six shutout, three-hit innings. He generated 12 swinging strikes, including six on his sweeper, which he'll need to be his putaway pitch moving forward, so that was a good sign. I don't think Gasser is a likely ace, or anything, but he's got some pedigree, a decent minor-league track record, and now, a truly great start. Let's see how he builds on it. |
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| News and Notes |
| Shohei Ohtani has been playing through a bruised hamstring but hasn't missed any time with the injury, though it might slow him a bit on the bases. He also continues to up his throwing program as a rehabs from elbow surgery, throwing from 60 feet at 80 mph last week. He isn't expected to pitch this season, but it's still good to see with an eye on 2025, where he might just be the No. 1 pick in Fantasy. |
| Trea Turner ran at a higher intensity Saturday as he continues to work his way back from a hamstring injury. He'll need to run the bases before he's cleared for a rehab assignment, but hopefully that can happen sometime this week. |
| Aaron Boone said Saturday that there's a chance Gerrit Cole will begin a rehab assignment as soon as this week. He'll likely need several weeks before he is cleared, but it appears as if all the momentum is positive here. |
| The same can't be said for Kodai Senga, who was shut down from throwing Friday after he received a cortisone shot for inflammation in his triceps. Senga has been working his way back from a spring shoulder injury, but this is now a couple of setbacks in the process, which we never want to see. Anything I get from Senga at this point is a bonus, in my eyes. |
| Mike Trout has been working out on the elliptical and exercise bike and will next progress to the treadmill. He's continuing to rehab from left knee surgery. |
| Josh Lowe was officially placed on the IL Saturday with that right oblique strain. Lowe said he's hopeful for an abbreviated stay, and expects to resume baseball activities this week, but given the recurring nature of the injury, I'm not going to hold my breath. |
| Cristian Javier was placed on the 15-day IL with right forearm discomfort, retroactive to May 24.. His velo has been down the past few starts. |
| Royce Lewis responded well to his first two minor-league rehab games but remains without a clear timeline to return from his quad injury. |
| Bobby Miller made his first rehab start on Sunday, allowing three runs over three innings at Single-A. He built up to 55 pitches and will likely need a few more starts before he can return from his shoulder injury. |
| Steven Kwan began a rehab assignment at High-A Saturday. He's been out since May 6 with a hamstring injury, but could be back within the next week, it seems. |
| Apparently Max Muncy is still feeling his oblique strain and will proceed cautiously. |
| John Means, who's on the IL with a strained forearm, will get a second opinion. I'm not expecting much from him at this point. |
| Chris Bassitt left his start Monday with neck spasms, which puts his two-start status in question. |
| Gavin Williams will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Wednesday. He's been on the IL all season with right elbow discomfort, but if you have a roster spot to play with, he's worth a look where available (57% rostered). |
| TJ Friedl could return later this week or early next week. He's been out since May 13 with a broken left thumb and, at 52% rostered, is worth stashing in all category leagues. |
| Wyatt Langford could be activated on Tuesday. He's been out since May 5 with a hamstring injury, but was really struggling prior to the injury. I still have a lot of faith in his upside, so hopefully he can get going quickly after he returns. |
| Tyler O'Neill has missed two straight with a sore right knee. |
| LaMonte Wade left Monday's game due to a left hamstring strain and is likely to go on the IL. |
| Jorge Polanco was placed on the IL with a right hamstring strain. |
| Jeffrey Springs, who's currently on a rehab assignment, will be shut down for a few days because of a lat issue. |
| Rockies young outfielder Jordan Beck is scheduled to undergo surgery on his left hand Wednesday. He suffered a broken fourth metacarpal in his left hand Saturday. |
| The Astros optioned Joey Loperfido back to Triple-A on Sunday. He hit .333 in the majors, but couldn't tap into his power enough and was striking out nearly 40% of the time. I still have some faith that Loperfido could be a useful Fantasy option, but it's hard to say he's a must-stash player, given his struggles. |
| Diamondbacks shortstop prospect Jordan Lawlar will play in rehab games this week in the Arizona Complex League. He underwent surgery in late March to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb. He has significant upside if he can get healthy and work his way into the team's lineup. |
| Players who went on the IL since Friday: |
| Dean Kremer with a right triceps strain, retroactive to May 21. |
| Justin Lawrence with a right shoulder strain. |
| Michael Massey with a lower back ligament sprain. |
| AJ Smith-Shawver made a start Thursday and went on the IL Friday with a Grade 2 left oblique strain. |
| Ross Stripling with a strained right elbow. |
| Jon Berti with a left calf strain. |
| Monday's standouts |
| Justin Steele,Cubs @MIL: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Now that's more like it. Steele's struggles this season have been unstandable, given the Opening Day hamstring injury, but it was still nice to see a true ace outcome from him after he allowed 15 runs in his previous three starts. It's worth noting that he had 15 strikeouts to four walks in those three starts and was probably always going to be fine in the long run, but I know you all can get antsy when your high draft picks are struggling. Steele doesn't have the longest track record to go on, but I really didn't have much concern even amid his struggles, and I certainly don't now. |
| Nick Lodolo, Reds vs. STL: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – I mean, sure, I'd like to see more than three strikeouts, especially against a pretty bad Cardinals lineup. But who am I to argue with these results, especially in his first game back from the IL. Lodolo has a second start coming up this week, and this was just the third start of his season where he had fewer strikeouts than innings pitched. If he's healthy, Lodolo might just be an ace. |
| Joe Ryan, Twins vs. KC: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – Fool me once … That's probably something a lot of you are thinking watching Ryan get off to another terrific start. Remember, last season, he had a 2.21 ERA through his first 10 starts last season, with very similar underlying numbers to his current run, which has him sporting a 2.96 ERA through 11. Why should we believe this time will be any different? Well, he reworked his splitter and sweeper this offseason in a way that has seemingly made both even more effective pitches, which puts less pressure on Ryan's fastball being an outlier pitch for him. Of course, there's also the fact that Ryan's velocity has been up on his fastball this season, and was up even more Monday, as he averaged 94.7 mph with the pitch en route to 11 of his 15 swinging strikes. None of that means Ryan won't fizzle out the same way he did around this time last year, but I'm really not too worried about it. |
| Bryce Miller, Mariners vs. HOU: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – Miller needed this one in a bad way after he gave up 15 runs in his first four May starts. He had to pitch out of a couple of jams and nearly blew the game wide open with his last out recorded traveling about 405 feet to the deepest part of the park, but hey, 2 ER in 6 IP is 2 ER in 6 IP. I lean toward Miller still being a sell-high candidate, given his still-limited arsenal, but he'll be useful if you do decide to hang on to him. It just might be an ERA closer to 4.00 than 3.00. |
| Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays @CHW: 5 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – In my eyes, Bassitt is kind of a random number generator. When things are going poorly for him, it never seems like there's that much of a difference from how he pitches when things are going well, and he generally ends up being a viable starter in the long run. He's on one of the good stretches right now, sporting a 2.40 ERA in the month of May, and suddenly his numbers are starting to look like we expected them to after a miserable April. That's just how things tend to go for him. |
| Charlie Morton, Braves vs. WAS: 5.2 IP, 12 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – Welp, you missed your sell-high window. When things are going well, Morton is a fine pitcher to have around thanks in large part to that Braves offense backing him up. But that offense isn't going to be nearly as good without Acuna moving forward, and now he has a 5.06 ERA in the month of May. There's a bit of strikeout and win upside here, but not enough to justify the cost to your ratios. |
| Mitchell Parker , Nationals @ATL: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – The results remain pretty good on the whole, so why can't I get more excited about Parker? Partly, it's a lack of strikeouts – even with 13 over his past 12.1 innings, he still has just a 21.5% strikeout rate this season. Of course, with his elite control and solid quality-of-contact suppression, that's less of a concern – especially if he can build on his 17 whiffs Monday. I think it just comes down to a lack of perceived upside, but maybe I'm not being fair. At the very least, he should probably be roasted in more than 34% of leagues right now. |
| Cooper Criswell, Red Sox @BAL: 4 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – Criswell was started in 20% of CBS Fantasy leagues this week (it was even higher in deeper formats), and yeah, that was a mistake. The Red Sox have wrung a lot out of their pitching staff this season, but I can't say I had much interest in Criswell against the Orioles – and even in a two-start week, I would only have touched him in H2H points leagues. For the sake of those of you who started him already, let's just hope start two against the White Sox goes better. |
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