| One of the signal features of the shift in the US view of the war in Ukraine under Trump has been the reaction from Moscow: senior official after senior official, as well as media pundits loyal to the Kremlin, have exulted in what they describe as an epochal shift in the relationship. “The new [US] administration is rapidly changing all foreign policy configurations,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said recently. “This largely coincides with our vision.” “Obviously, they can’t believe their luck at the moment,” Pjotr Sauer said. “And they welcome what’s happening in Ukraine itself, but also in a bigger global picture. They are very happy at the idea that they will be granted control of a ‘sphere of influence’ in the 19th-century sense, and that Europe may have to accept what Russia has to say about its own so-called back yard.” Is there any caution about trusting Trump? Jubilant though the Kremlin undoubtedly is, there may also be a view that Trump’s stance is an opportunity to be exploited rather than a shift to be counted on, Pjotr said. “The Kremlin is being quite careful in balancing how it treats Trump. Putin has been complimenting him, but officials have been pushing back against western proposals, endorsed by Trump, including the idea of European troops on the ground in Ukraine.” Partly, that is driven by bitter memories of the disappointment of Trump’s first term, where the Kremlin was euphoric at his victory but then saw his administration impose new sanctions on Russia and arm Ukraine. “The more experienced pro-Kremlin commentators in the media say that Russia still has to be careful, because Trump is an emotional and erratic politician who can change his mind,” Pjotr said. “There is still a school of thought that is suspicious the US is laying some sort of trap, and Trump is playing a game Russian officials aren’t understanding. But most realise this is just how he is, and that this time around, you’re getting a totally different Trump.” How is Russia responding militarily? For a country said by Donald Trump to want peace, Russia is taking a noticeably aggressive stance on the battlefield: Putin’s strategic response to the prospect of some sort of ceasefire has been to double down on its attempts to secure as much territory as possible. In this story, Dan Sabbagh reports on Ukrainian warnings that Russian troops are now being sent on “suicidal missions” to win a foothold across the Dnipro river, sending wave after wave of troops to take control of territory that would help justify their claim to control of the whole of the Kherson region. “Russia scents blood,” Pjotr said. “They sense that there is a window of opportunity before Europe has its act together properly and as American aid dries up. Their number one objective is to take back control of the parts of the Kursk region in Russia which Ukraine has occupied, and which is a huge embarrassment to Putin – that is seen as a strong card for Ukraine in negotiations.” One question about how this effort goes is whether the US switches off more of the support that Ukraine relies on, like intelligence sharing and the use of Elon Musk’s Starlink system, crucial to frontline communications. Reuters reported last month that access to Starlink could be cut if no deal on US access to Ukraine’s critical minerals was reached. (Elon Musk has denied that claim.) How big a deal would it be if the US eases sanctions? On Monday, it was reported the US is drawing up options for lifting sanctions as part of broad discussions on improving relations between the two sides. The Pentagon has also ordered a pause in offensive cyber operations against Russia. A change to the sanctions regime would be a big deal on its own, Pjotr said, and perhaps a prequel to closer economic ties more generally: “Putin has been saying that if the US wants rare minerals it should come and get Russia’s, and Marco Rubio and others have been talking up joint energy projects in the Arctic.” But the shift would be most significant in how it might open up divides over sanctions on this side of the Atlantic. “In the end, Russia’s economic ties with the US are less significant than the ones it has with Europe,” Pjotr said. “The US has such symbolic value that any change in Washington is likely to make it much harder to maintain a unified regime. Countries like Hungary and Slovakia are already sympathetic, and there are others which have been extremely reliant on Russian energy.” Could Putin seek a new confrontation with Europe? One of the key self-interested arguments for European nations alarmed by Russia’s actions in Ukraine has been that if Putin is able to escape further consequences for the invasion, he might be emboldened to act elsewhere – and against Nato countries. It’s very early to say whether Trump’s stance has made that more likely in the short term, and it may be that Putin’s interest in the White House’s continued friendship may militate against more decisive action before the next presidential election. But there is little doubt that Moscow is now oriented more vigorously towards military confrontation than it has been for decades. “It would be very speculative to talk about what Russia might do next at this point – we haven’t even reached a Ukraine ceasefire,” Pjotr said. “But what is certainly true is that Russia has a huge war economy: it would be very hard to adjust to a peacetime approach. Most European officials don’t believe that it would invite a new conflict right away, but it remains a very militarised society.” He points to a new Finnish intelligence report which says that while Helsinki has not yet been the subject of intense Russian influence campaigns, “this will probably change when Russia is able to redeploy the resources that are currently tied up in Ukraine”. “It is likely that some of these troops will be moved to other places on the border with Europe,” he said. “It doesn’t mean a war, but it does ramp up tensions. Putin’s whole ethos and reason to exist is the confrontation with Europe.” Could Russia become an ally for the US against China? Those seeking a coldly rational explanation for Trump’s recent behaviour suggest that he sees Moscow as a potential partner in a new era of great power politics. Keith Kellogg, the Trump administration’s Russia-Ukraine envoy, said at the Munich security conference that severing the Russia-China alliance was one of the key goals of the new administration’s strategy. Pjotr is sceptical of whether such a play can come off. “Most serious observers think that’s a very naive way to view the world,” he said. “Putin and Xi have a personal relationship, and Russia is so dependent on China – which has proven a very loyal partner. Putin couldn’t sustain the war economy without Chinese support.” Crucially, he points out, Moscow views the US as a much more fickle partner, whose stance might easily change at the next election if a Democrat wins it. “Putin knows that Xi is as unlikely as he is to go anywhere in the coming years, barring health issues,” he said. “Clearly, the US thinks that it can peel Russia away from China. But that may stem from the fact that there are not a lot of Russia experts working in the White House.” | 