SA Taxi's bumps and rattles

Good morning Voornaam,

Fresh out the oven:

Ghost Bites: Transaction Capital released its first set of post-WeBuyCars numbers, showing that SA Taxi's future is still uncertain. Alexander Forbes posted strong growth. Coronation's dividend is back. Look out for Collins Property, Finbond, HCI, Salungano and Tharisa as well. Get it all in Ghost Bites>>>

With elections around the corner, managing your behavioural bias is so important. In other words: don't panic! Kingsley Williams of Satrix elaborates in this article>>>

Attention: startup and tech sector enthusiasts. When it comes to startups, those in Silicon Valley tend to trade at higher multiples than global peers. Why is this? In an article I wrote for bizval, I explore this topic. Also remember to register for the bizval webinar this Thursday 23rd May, where I join the team in presenting on how platform businesses move into profitability. Register to attend here.

In case you missed it:

​Ghost Wrap: You need barely four minutes to get up to speed on KAL Group, AB InBev, Redefine, RFG Holdings and Calgro M3, brought to you by Mazars. Listen to it here>>>

​This is a massive election year, with over 60 nations going to the polls. On the latest Investec No Ordinary Wednesday podcast, Investec Wealth & Investment Chief Investment Strategist Chris Holdsworth shared his insights on the election outcomes that matter most to markets. Listen to the show here>>>​

The new Magic Markets episode covers the exceptional share price performance at Chipotle Mexican Grill and Wingstop, brought to you by Future Forex and available here with a full transcript as well.

Hermès: Birkin Mad This brand new piece by Dominique Olivier has everything from five-star meltdowns in Paris to supermodels and straw baskets. This is the Birkin bag, the iconic piece by ultra-luxury company Hermès that shows how these businesses really work. Read it here>>>

LISTEN: Chasing Returns from the Sun

Local company news:

Transaction Capital is looking more and more like an investment holding company, with a net cash position at the holding company and only the stakes in Mobalyz (SA Taxi) and Nutun remaining in the group. Everything is in flux right now, with SA Taxi's future resting on whether funders believe in the plan.
Meanwhile, Alexander Forbes is a perfect example of strategic execution done well. The group has made many changes in the past couple of years and they are working, with double-digit growth now being enjoyed.
Over at Coronation, fund management earnings per share moved slightly higher on a tax-adjusted basis. Speaking of the tax battles with SARS, the lack of dividend is no more. Coronation has returned to paying an interim dividend.
Other news includes Finbond's numbers that are roughly break-even, Collins Property ramping up its distribution per share now that it has REIT status, HCI's fair value knocks from oil and gas and casinos, a truly revolting set of 2023 numbers from Salungano and a pretty good outcome from Tharisa under the PGM circumstances.
Get all the details in Ghost Bites at this link>>>

LISTEN: Investing in Private Credit
(Reginald Labuschagne, Sanlam Private Wealth |
Harris Gorre, Grovepoint Investment Management)

International business news:

US retailer Macy's is in a turnaround strategy that involves shrinking. This isn't uncommon for old-school retailers where changes in consumer preferences have left a portion of the stores economically unviable. This means job losses of course, with the group having announced over 2,300 layoffs in January and a plan to close 150 namesake stores. The latest quarterly results show revenue in line with estimates and earnings well ahead of estimates. It's a harsh reality, but sometimes a company needs to cut some jobs to try and save the rest of them.
Although sales are down in the DIY / home builders market in the US, Lowe's managed to beat estimates in its latest numbers. The same can't be said for Home Depot, which missed expectations.
And finally, Bob Iger is making more changes at Disney. Pixar is laying off around 14% of its workforce as the group looks to focus on quality of content, not quantity. Disney lost its way completely and its going to be a hard slog to get back on track.
This week, we are covering payments giant Mastercard in Magic Markets Premium. To get access to this research and the rest of the vast library, subscribe to the platform here.

Macroeconomic Update

The dollar is largely unchanged this morning, with Fed Governor Waller commenting that the labour market remains robust and he would like to see several months of good inflation numbers before any rate cuts. Over in the UK, inflation is expected to print close to its 2.0% target today, which might mean a cut in rates at the next meeting.
The rand continues to benefit from a reduction in political risks and the unwinding of short rand positions. Local CPI data is also due today, with the year-on-year number expected to be 5.4% - up slightly from last month's 5.3%.
Gold and PGMs are softer on the back of the hawkish tone at the Fed, with Brent Crude having moved lower as well.
Key indicators: USD/ZAR R18.08; US 10-year 4.42%; Gold $2,413; Platinum ZAR R18,958; Brent Crude $82.27
This macroeconomic update is based on TreasuryONE's morning update.