Plus, Amazon's prime cuts |
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Hi John, here's what you need to know for July 9th in 3:10 minutes.

  1. Samsung forecast its worst quarterly performance in a year and a half
  2. Big, sure, but for the market, this bill may not be altogether beautiful – Read Now
  3. Amazon’s Prime Day might be full of prime cuts – and we’re not talking about steaks

🇺🇸 July 4th might be over, but America should still be on your mind. The world's biggest economy looks less reliable than usual, so join us for How To Navigate Today’s US Market on July 15th. Bring your leftover hot dogs and fireworks, if you fancy. Grab your free ticket

Sam-Sunk
Sam-Sunk

What’s going on here?

Samsung is bracing for its biggest dip since 2023, warning on Tuesday that last quarter’s profit will probably come in 56% lower than the same time last year.

What does this mean?

🇺🇸 The South Korean firm can pin some of the blame on politics. US export restrictions have kept it from sending chips to China, contributing to the contract chip-making division’s massive $2.9 billion loss this year.

⏰ But Samsung will need to take accountability for the rest. The firm had a slow start with its most advanced AI memory chips, and they’re still in Nvidia’s approval process (the US company certifies its suppliers’ chips before using them). Meanwhile, rivals SK Hynix and Micron have cleared certification, locked in major contracts, and started shipping at scale.

➡️ That pace has paid off. SK Hynix and Micron now control 57% and 16% of the advanced memory chip market, respectively, and their shares are up 65% and 43% this year – while Samsung’s have only managed a 22% uptick.

📅 Samsung says it could win back some of its losses later in the year. But if those chips stay in testing for longer than expected, or if companies refuse to switch suppliers, the firm might struggle to make up for lost time.

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: Nvidia drafted its team.

Export restrictions and tariffs are complicating shipping all around the world, but America’s levies and rules are especially tough. And that’s forced a sharp cut in Nvidia’s sales to China. So the US chipmaker is working smarter: for the next generation of its Blackwell chips, Nvidia’s using TSMC and SK Hynix as suppliers. Those firms aren’t based in China, and they don’t use a single Chinese facility or packaging supplier either. That “clean” supply chain keeps Nvidia’s licences simple and shipments on time – and that keeps contracts and sales coming in.

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👀 You might've missed...

FROM OUR RESEARCH DESK

The Big, Not-Entirely-Beautiful Impact Of The New US Tax And Spending Law

Russell Burns

The Big, Not-Entirely-Beautiful Impact Of The New US Tax And Spending Law

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is nearly 900 pages long, a sprawling collection of tax breaks, spending cuts, and other measures. And, frankly, no one expects you to read it all.

But the bill – which was signed into law on Friday – is worth paying attention to.

It’s the cornerstone of the US president’s second-term agenda – and it could have major ripple effects on the markets and your money.

That’s today’s Insight: what’s in the chunky new tax and spending law – and what it means for markets.

Read or listen to the Insight here

* SPONSORED BY STATE STREET

Someone had to set the standard…

When you’re built to lead, others tend to fall in line. Just think of the iPhone, McDonald’s, Google, and Mercedes-Benz — they’re all inventions that set industry standards.

SPY, too: State Street launched the first-ever US ETF in 1993, igniting an entire industry. Now, SPY — the world’s most traded ETF — trades $41 billion a day, on average. That’s over 3 times that of Apple, or more than the trading volumes for Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta combined.1

Get to know the original S&P 500 ETF

Learn More

Footnote:

1 Bloomberg Finance, L.P., as of March 31, 2025. Average daily trading volume calculated based on a 1-month average.

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Me, Myself, And Prime
Me, Myself, And Prime

What’s going on here?

Amazon launched its famous four-day “Prime Day” sale on Tuesday – but with both sellers and shoppers spooked by tariffs, this might become a party for one.

What does this mean?

Prime Day is like Amazon’s second Black Friday, with customers scouring the site for kitchenware, beauty products, and lobster slides so deeply discounted that they’re practically free.

📈 Thing is, tariffs have pushed up costs for many manufacturers. So, desperate to protect their profit margins, plenty of independent sellers are skipping the sale or dialing down the discounts this year.

🛒 It’s not like shoppers were preparing to stuff their carts anyway. One in four said they’ll spend less this year, and over half are tracking prices more closely.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: Hopefully you like Amazon’s own-brand products…

Independent sellers already have to hand Amazon up to a fifth of each sale in fees. Add the steep new taxes on top, and you can see why they’re protecting their bottom lines.

➡️ Amazon isn’t feeling the pinch, though. The firm cleverly stocked up before tariffs hit, so it can afford to run 40 to 50% discounts on its own products. Plus, Amazon has enough cash in its just-in-case fund to make Jeff Bezos’ wedding look cheap.

➡️ The bottom line: every new levy widens the gap between established giants and the small brands that once made online marketplaces feel diverse.

The bigger picture: A deal today, done tomorrow.

July now hosts three major sale events competing for attention in the same week: Prime Day, Walmart Deals, and Target Circle Week. Adobe forecasts that trio will bring in nearly $24 billion in online spending this week – all of which would benefit this month’s economic top line (and keep package carriers busy). But if budgets run dry by September, retailers could be staring at an early end to the shopping season.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Life is like an onion. You peel it off one layer at a time, and sometimes you weep."

– Carl Sandburg (an American poet and biographer)

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4. Not everyone can spring for a flight to the Nordics. Turns out you can see the Milky Way from the US – if you pick the right backyard.

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🇺🇸 How To Navigate Today’s US Market: July 15th

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