| Good morning Voornaam, I come to you in what feels like a pasta and chocolate coma. It was a truly lovely weekend with family and friends. I hope yours was also excellent!
It was actually quite a busy day in terms of JSE news on Thursday. The mining sector was particularly active, with a number of production updates being released. The one that will probably be of most interest is Sasol, where so many new investors during the pandemic either sold and banked their gains, or watched the share price wash away to current levels. The latest production guidance doesn't exactly tell a story of growth, either.
You can contrast this to the narrative at the likes of BHP and South32, where production is on track. BHP is also a great way to see why "record production" isn't always exciting, as it tells you nothing about the extent of growth vs. the prior year. Adding their names to the list of mining updates, we find Alphamin and Merafe.
Outside of mining, Ninety One released its latest Assets Under Management (AUM) numbers, while Zeder gave an update on its Net Asset Value (NAV) per share. Those are acronyms that you'll come across pretty often in the world of investing.
These details and the Nibbles are available in Ghost Bites at this link>>>
For those who enjoy doing detailed research on single stocks, the most recent edition of Unlock the Stock gives you a great opportunity to learn more about CA Sales Holdings. This has been one of the genuine success stories on the JSE in recent years, with a business model that has no direct peer on our market. Learn more here>>>
The latest episode of Magic Markets is packed with insights, particularly if you've ever wondered how carry trades work and what their impact on currencies and yields can be. We talked about the global asset ownership web in general, a particularly relevant point in the current geopolitical context. Get it here>>>
Have a great start to your week and good luck finding motivation after the break! |
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| GHOST STORIES: Diversification - the way to survive market chaos |
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| | | With the markets in disarray in the aftermath of tariffs, it looks like the theme this year is more around risk management in a bear market rather than which growth stocks to buy.
This is where strategic asset allocation becomes key, as discussed with Kingsley Williams of Satrix in this podcast.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| GHOST STORIES: Debt markets - the other side of the coin |
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| | | Intengo Market is a digital marketplace for debt instruments in South Africa, driving outcomes like increased liquidity and price discovery.
CEO Ian Norden joined me on this podcast to give an overview of the debt markets in South Africa. From trends in public vs. private markets through to how Dutch auctions work, there's so much in here - and you can expect many more insights in months to come.
Learn all about the debt markets in this podcast>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: Q1 winners on the JSE |
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| In considering how the first few months of the year have played out, some surprising winners have emerged. The performance in gold is simply a case of the sector carrying on where it left off in 2024, but what about platinum? And where did that telecoms rally come from? Also, have retail stocks continued their slide since the previous episode of Ghost Wrap that focused on that issue?
You can find the recording and the transcript (with charts) at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | Sasol's production update tells a story of many headaches. BHP and South32 have good news at least, while Alphamin and Merafe also find themselves with struggles. Ninety One and Zeder gave us non-mining news to consider. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| Unlock the Stock - CA Sales Holdings |
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| In the 51st edition of Unlock the Stock, regular attendee CA Sales Holdings returned to the platform to talk about the recent performance and strategic focus areas for the group. The recording of the management presentation and interactive Q&A is available at this link>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Colombia has a cocaine hippo problem |
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| | | Ecosystems are like very complicated Jenga towers: one wrong move, and suddenly you’ve got starlings in New York, hippos in Colombia, and scientists frantically trying to put the pieces back together. Dominique Olivier tells the story of Pablo Escobar's hippos in this piece>>> |
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| INVESTEC PODCAST: Positioning for tariff turmoil |
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| | | In this special edition of Investec’s No Ordinary Wednesday podcast, Jeremy Maggs is joined by Chris Holdsworth and Osagyefo Mazwai to delve into the recent market turmoil following President Donald Trump's controversial tariff announcements. Get the insights in this podcast>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| After many examples of companies reducing their earnings guidance in response to market uncertainty, Netflix came out and maintained its 2025 guidance. I can believe it actually, as such affordable home entertainment is surely one of the last things that consumers will cut. Going out for just one restaurant meal as a family pays for a good few months of Netflix. Remember, the company is no longer reporting subscriber numbers, with the market having to focus on revenue instead. At a time when many companies have suffered a sharp sell-off this year, Netflix is up 11.5%!
The Netflix guidance doesn't surprise me. But the one that did make me raise my eyebrows was chips giant TSMC, which maintained its forecasts despite all the worries about tariffs and a potential global recession. Although an argument could probably be made that we will see an East vs. West AI development race that can only be good news for TSMC, it still seems unlikely that they will be immune to this environment.
This week in Magic Markets Premium, we've covered Delta Air Lines. They came into this year expecting their best year ever. Now, they've pulled full-year guidance. Talk about a deterioration! As our subscribers will find out in the Delta research, the issue is more around uncertainty than observable problems - for now, at least. |
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| ICYMI: Magic Markets - Trade Wars and Trading |
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| | | Magic Markets: With the markets all over the place and practically impossible to predict, Moe is busy with a day-trading strategy and Ghost has bought a few dips, ranging from technology through to golf. Is there method in this madness? What is really going on out there? And should we be thinking more and more about China?
Volatility can be wild, but it’s also a key feature of the markets and a very exciting time for those who like to see action on the screens. In this episode, our passion for the markets really shines through. We invite you to join us.
To learn more, listen to this podcast>>> |
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| Macroeconomic indicators and IG Markets macro update |
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| European markets are poised for gains after the holiday break, buoyed by ECB monetary easing and cautious optimism around trade developments, though geopolitical and US policy risks continue to temper enthusiasm. Investors are increasingly looking at undervalued stocks as potential opportunities amid this cautiously positive backdrop.
However, President Trump's renewed criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has raised concerns about the Fed's independence and potential disruptions in monetary policy. This, combined with heightened trade tensions and tariff uncertainties, has weighed on investor confidence and sent US markets notably lower overnight.
The dollar index is trading at 15-month lows while gold is pushing further into new high territory, supported by tariff and Fed uncertainty. Meanwhile, progress in US-Iran nuclear talks has raised expectations that Iranian oil exports could return to the market, potentially increasing supply and putting downward pressure on prices.
Despite US market weakness, China and Hong Kong stocks are firmer this morning, and we are seeing a rebound in European index futures in early trade.
The rand has gained against a softer US dollar, and on balance we are expecting a slightly firmer start for the JSE All-Share Index as it balances influence from weakness in US markets against gains in China and Europe.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.68/$ | US 10yr 4.43% | Gold $3,478/oz | Platinum $976/oz | Brent Crude $66.94
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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