| | | | | Commentary | | The Straits Times index rose 0.21% or 6.07 pts to 2949.12 (day range: 2955.17 - 2955.17) on Tuesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 2853) and above its 50d MA (@ 2844). 80% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 87% the previous session) and 53% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 53%). Appx. 30% of the stocks are 'overbought' based on the RSI14 indicator. On a daily basis, the index remains under pressure below the repeatedly-tested short-term key resistance at 2960. Even though a a continuation of the technical rebound is likely on the intraday basis, its extent should be limited. Unless the index clears 2960, the short-term outlook remains bearish and a return to the first downside target at 2700 is likely. Alternatively, a break above 2960 will change the outlook to positive. The HSI index gained 0.75% or 169.6pts to 22675.15 (day range: 22746.67 - 22625.32) on Tuesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 22562) and below its 50d MA (@ 23010). 51% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 40% the previous session) and 40% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 35%). On the daily chart, the index has turned down against its 50-day moving average, and is consolidating around the 20-day one. Meanwhile the daily relative strength index lacks upward momentum. As long as the key resistance at 23620 is not surpassed, it is expected to return to the first downside target at 21700. |
| Straits Times Intraday: the upside prevails. | | Pivot: 2920.00
Our preference: long positions above 2920.00 with targets at 2960.00 & 2980.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 2920.00 look for further downside with 2890.00 & 2860.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
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| | | | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Straits Times |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 3000.00 | 30/12/2016 | 0.4 | BWPW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW161230% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 21.4 % | | Call | 2950.00 | 28/02/2017 | 0.5 | BYMW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170228% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 9.7 % | | Put | 2800.00 | 30/12/2016 | -0.2 | BWOW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW161230% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 19.7 % | | Put | 2750.00 | 28/02/2017 | -0.3 | BYNW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170228% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 11.4 % |
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| Hang Seng Intraday: the bias remains bullish. | | Pivot: 22500
Our preference: long positions above 22500 with targets at 22850 & 23000 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 22500 look for further downside with 22400 & 22280 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
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| | | | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Hang Seng |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 23800.00 | 26/01/2017 | 0.3 | CANW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170126% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 20.1 % | | Call | 23000.00 | 26/01/2017 | 0.5 | CAOW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170126% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 17.6 % | | Call | 24800.00 | 29/05/2017 | 0.3 | CATW | UBS | HSI UBS ECW170529% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 9.9 % | | Put | 22400.00 | 26/01/2017 | -0.4 | CAPW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170126% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 14.7 % | | Put | 21400.00 | 26/01/2017 | -0.3 | CAQW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170126% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 19.5 % | | Put | 22000.00 | 29/12/2016 | -0.3 | BZWW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW161229% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 19.2 % |
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| OCBC Intraday: further upside. | | Pivot: 9.10
Our preference: long positions above 9.10 with targets at 9.45 & 9.57 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 9.10 look for further downside with 9.00 & 8.90 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
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| | | | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for OCBC |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 9.50 | 02/10/2017 | 0.5 | CBHW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL ECW171002% | Low risk | 7.0 % | 5.5 % | | Call | 9.00 | 06/03/2017 | 0.6 | BYPW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL ECW170306% | Low risk | 7.0 % | 8.8 % | | Put | 8.50 | 27/12/2016 | -0.3 | BUNW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL EPW161227% | High risk | 10.0 % | 16.4 % | | Put | 8.20 | 06/03/2017 | -0.3 | BYOW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL EPW170306% | Medium risk | 7.0 % | 19.9 % |
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| MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.
Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.
RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14). | |
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