| | | | | Commentary | | The Straits Times index jumped 0.7% or 22.33pts to 3233.15 (day range: 3234.16 - 3211.1) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 3231) and above its 50d MA (@ 3191). 47% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 30% the previous session) and 50% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 43%). Trading volume on the index was high, 83.4% above the 3 months average. On a daily basis, the index is rebounding on the support of its 50-day moving average, and has returned to the upside. The relative strength index is reversing up and has crossed above its neutrality area at 50. Even though a continuation of the consolidation in current stage cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. As long as 3185 holds as the key support, further upside is expected. The HSI index rose 0.58% or 148.57pts to 25809.22 (day range: 25834.75 - 25614.61) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 25245) and above its 50d MA (@ 24682). 91% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 81% the previous session) and 88% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 84%). Trading volume on the index was high, 75.4% above the 3 months average. On the daily chart, the index remains on the upside, and is looking for a higher top. Both 20-day and 50-day moving averages should maintain the bullish bias. And the daily relative strength index is above its neutrality area at 50, showing upward momentum. As long as 25000 is support, further rise is likely. |
| Straits Times Intraday: the downside prevails. | | Pivot: 3240.00
Our preference: short positions below 3240.00 with targets at 3205.00 & 3198.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 3240.00 look for further upside with 3248.00 & 3255.00 as targets.
Comment: as long as 3240.00 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
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| | | | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Straits Times |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 3050.00 | 31/08/2017 | -0.4 | CFWW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170831% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 14.0 % | | Put | 3050.00 | 31/08/2017 | -0.4 | CFWW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170831% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 14.0 % | | Call | 3300.00 | 31/08/2017 | 0.3 | CFVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170831% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 8.6 % | | Call | 3300.00 | 31/08/2017 | 0.3 | CFVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170831% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 8.6 % |
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| Hang Seng Intraday: supported by a rising trend line. | | Pivot: 25600
Our preference: long positions above 25600 with targets at 25980 & 26130 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 25600 look for further downside with 25475 & 25310 as targets.
Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.
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| | | | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Hang Seng |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 25800.00 | 28/07/2017 | 0.4 | CGYW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170728% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 15.5 % | | Call | 25200.00 | 29/06/2017 | 0.6 | CGIW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170629% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 19.9 % | | Call | 25000.00 | 28/07/2017 | 0.6 | CGRW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170728% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 14.3 % | | Put | 24400.00 | 28/07/2017 | -0.3 | CGSW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170728% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 19.9 % | | Put | 24400.00 | 28/07/2017 | -0.3 | CGSW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170728% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 19.9 % | | Put | 24400.00 | 28/07/2017 | -0.3 | CGSW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170728% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 19.9 % |
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| United Overseas Bank Intraday: under pressure. | | Pivot: 23.24
Our preference: short positions below 23.24 with targets at 22.86 & 22.65 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 23.24 look for further upside with 23.45 & 23.65 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.
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| | | | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for United Overseas Bank |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 21.50 | 16/10/2017 | -0.3 | CGUW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL EPW171016% | Medium risk | 12.0 % | 7.8 % | | Put | 21.50 | 16/10/2017 | -0.3 | CGUW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL EPW171016% | Medium risk | 12.0 % | 7.8 % | | Call | 24.50 | 16/10/2017 | 0.4 | CGVW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL ECW171016% | Medium risk | 12.0 % | 10.2 % | | Call | 22.50 | 01/11/2017 | 0.6 | CBRW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL ECW171101% | Low risk | 12.0 % | 7.8 % |
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| MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.
Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.
RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14). | |
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