| | | | Tuesday, March 7, 2023 | | Every spring, like clockwork, one young player shines above the rest and takes the Fantasy Baseball world by storm. It starts the same, but doesn't always finish that way. It always starts with that player being a top young prospect, uncertain to make the opening day roster, but he's absolutely scorching through spring training. His ADP typically starts somewhere in the 200s and ultimately reaches an absurd level -- breaking the into double-digit draft position overall in some drafts with the most bullish of managers. That player for spring is Cardinals 3B prospect Jordan Walker. | | Walker's ADP has risen like a helium balloon in the middle of a tornado. That culminated in any weekend draft you participated in following his 4-for-4 spring game where he cracked two homers, a double and an infield single. Walker just made Scott White's Sleepers 2.0 (we'll discuss more below) and he factored in the recent ADP bump and what it now costs to get him. He's still a big-time target for Scott and a whole lot of industry analysts you'll listen to. That's kind of the point though. | | When a player gets this much preseason hype in any of the Fantasy games, the margin for error on your investment becomes so much thinner. Walker is pricing himself out of a range where I'm willing to draft him. His range of outcomes (performance wise) is wide this season, but as the price goes up, you inch closer and closer to the top of that range (.275, 20 homers, 20 steals) and in doing so lose value. | | Also, a quick note on the new stolen base dynamic. We saw Whit Merrifield take off after two mound disengagements from Mitch Keller and pick up a steal. Here's how easy that looked: | | I talked with Fank about what seeing something like this means for the Fantasy side of it. Frank is moving forward under the impression that most managers will tell their pitchers not to get to two disengagements as a way of avoiding this very instance. There will still be occasions where this happens for sure, and those will be "cheap steals" but it won't happen all that often. With that said, Frank maintains that the MBL will see a massive rise in stolen bases that could look similar to early 2000s MLB. | | We'll talk more about Walker and other key names below as we dive into Scott's Sleepers 2.0, a H2H Points style Mock with takeaways and format-based advice and some spring takeaways that you need to make sure you haven't missed. | | | | Scott's Sleepers 2.0 | | Almost a month later, Scott still has several holdovers from Sleepers 1.0 but also several newcomers who have joined the ranks since. For the complete breakdown of Sleepers 2.0, you can find that here. Here are a few of the newcomers who caught my attention. | | We kick things off with a boring, post-hype sleeper and that's exactly the type of investment I'm typically interested in. I'm similar to Scott in that way. I love these types of investments because everyone is off the scent and the ADP is likely to stabilize. For this year's boring post-hype sleeper, Scott has tagged: | | Ketel Marte, 2B, Diamondbacks: FantasyPros ADP: 196.2 | | From Scott: "How could we have gotten to this point with Marte, who's barely being drafted inside the top 200, behind the likes of Brandon Drury and Thairo Estrada ? As recently as 2019, he was putting up borderline first-round numbers, batting .329 with 32 homers and a .981 OPS, and before you say it was an aberration, note that he also hit .318 with a .909 OPS in 2021. In fact, in the three years prior to last year, he had a combined .318 batting average and .917 OPS. These are numbers you almost never see at second base. | | He's not allowed one little misstep, at age 28, still plenty young enough to recover? OK, so maybe the pandemic-shortened 2020 season was also a misstep, but even so, we're talking about premium production for two of the past four years. Amid his struggles last year, his Statcast page was still lit up in red, his max exit velocity ranking in the 96th percentile, his average exit velocity in the 72nd percentile and his strikeout rate in the 70th percentile. With those kinds of batted-ball metrics, it wouldn't be surprising to see him bounce back. We've seen him do it before, after all. | | Maybe the presumption is that he's a casualty of the juiced ball being gone, but that's not what the data shows. He seems like a safe bet to bounce back in batting average, at least, and has an outside chance at stud numbers at a position where few do." | | Scott likes a lot of these types, so here's one from the pitcher side: | | Jose Berrios, SP, Blue Jays: FantasyPros ADP: 212.6 | | From Scott: "My case for Berrios is similar to the one I made for Jack Flaherty in Sleepers 1.0. In the five years prior to this one, we drafted him like a borderline ace (and unlike Flaherty, he more or less made good on it). So after one bad year, we're tossing him on the scrap heap? He's only 28. His velocity didn't decline. His spin rates held steady. He maintained a low walk rate. It didn't make sense why he declined so precipitously, and so it wouldn't be surprising to see him bounce all the way back. | | "I don't think we'd discard Berrios so quickly if this was still the juiced ball era, when reliable starting pitchers were so scarce that anyone who proved trustworthy in the not-so-distant past got every benefit of the doubt (hence Flaherty's repeatedly high ADP). One year of pitching surplus has so rewired our thinking that there's no longer any grace for a down year. | | "For what it's worth, the Blue Jays think they've identified the issue as poor fastball location. Berrios left the pitch over the plate against lefties, and as Mitch Bannon of SI.com points out, they crushed it to the tune of a .381 batting average and 92.5 mph average exit velocity (as compared to .239 and 89.1 in 2018-19). That's more than I really need to know, though. Here's what I know: when he's right, Berrios is a reliable-innings eater on a playoff-bound team, and by the normal ways we measure these things, it doesn't seem like he went that wrong last year. For a pick outside of the top 200, I'm willing to look past the potential downside." | | Scott has FIVE more newcomer sleepers you don't want to miss and all of the holdovers -- you'll find them all here. | | | | H2H Points Mock | | The H2H Points format is so different from Roto that I love getting a look into mocks and drafts in this format. I have two H2H Points leagues and I added both to my mix last season for the first time. In this week's H2H Points Mock we see a group of checked-in drafters who haven't missed a single beat in spring training so far. | | As Scott termed it, "So the big takeaway from our latest Head-to-Head points mock is simply this: everyone is paying attention...Those things making headlines in spring training? They're having an impact on draft boards, at least among those with their ear to the ground. Most notably, Jordan Walker was the 100th player taken in this draft. Let me repeat that lest you skim past it: 100th overall, ahead of Christian Yelich, Dansby Swanson, Adolis Garcia and Rhys Hoskins , to name a few. It's true that with his 4-for-4, two-homer performance over the weekend, Walker's ADP in NFBC leagues climbed about 80 spots, into the top 140, but 100th overall is by far the earliest I've seen him go." | | You can find the full results of the mock here. | | These were the participants so after you click the link to see the mock results make sure you follow them all on Twitter (handles below): | 1) Jake Holland, formerly The Toss Up (@jakebaseball17)
2) Scott White, CBS Sports (@CBSScottWhite)
3) Michael Waterloo, The Athletic ( @MichaelWaterloo)
4) Sean Millerick , Call to the Pen (@miasportsminute)
5) George Kurtz, Sportsgrid (@GeorgeKurtz)
6) Matt Angelini, Fantasy Baseball Academy ( @MatttAngelini)
7) JR Fenton, TGFBI participant ( @JohnRussell215)
8) Tim Kanak, Fantasy Aceball Podcast (@fantasyaceball)
9) Nick Fox, NBC Sports ( @CT_FOX)
10) Chris Mitchell, FantasyData ( @CJMitch73)
11) Terry Gentzler, lucky reader who got to join in
12) R.J. White, CBS Sports (@rjwhite1) | | Five Takeaways From This Draft You Need To Know | | Mike Trout may seem like a surprising choice at fifth overall, but he's best suited for this format, which values plate discipline and devalues stolen bases. I'd still take Ronald Acuna and Julio Rodriguez over him, if only because of the injury risk, but Trout's 3.64 points per game last year ranked behind only Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez and Mookie Betts among outfielders.Another curious pick was Nolan Arenado (19th overall) over Austin Riley (22nd), but Arenado's low strikeout rate made all the difference last year. He outscored not only Riley on a per-game basis (3.40 to 3.16) but also Rafael Devers (3.30). I still prefer Devers and Riley to Arenado, believing the latter came closer to maxing out his potential last year than did the former two, but there's an argument to be made for Arenado instead, at least in this scoring format.Between taking Ohtani late in Round 2 and Paul Goldschmidt early in Round 3, I didn't stick to my usual plan of picking outfielder in Round 1, a third baseman in Round 2 and a second baseman in Round 3. Of course, it kind of went out the window when I took Jose Ramirez in Round 1 (not that I would have taken anyone else second overall), but the point is that there is such a thing as looking a gift horse in the mouth. If you're too rigid in your thinking, that's exactly what can happen. I wasn't going to pass up two first round-caliber bats (Goldschmidt last year averaged more points per game (3.78) than even Ramirez (3.77), after all) just so that I didn't have to sweat second base later.Second base may not even be worth sweating when there isn't a third middle infield spot to fill. Beyond Jose Altuve and, to a lesser extent, Marcus Semien, Ozzie Albies and Jazz Chisholm , it's a position of incredible redundancy in this format. You could argue I waited too long, passing up the chance to grab Andres Gimenez in Round 12 and ultimately settling for Brandon Drury in Round 20, but Gimenez, for as good as he was, averaged just 2.77 points per game last year. That's compared to 2.74 for Jeff McNeil, 2.73 for Jorge Polanco and Jake Cronenworth, and 2.99 for Drury himself.Other players who, like Gimenez, slid because of too many redundancies at the same position include Dansby Swanson (119th overall), William Contreras (157th) and Nate Lowe (160th). | | | | Key Nuggets from the Spring | | Scott tackled the 15 spring developments you need to know before your drafts here. We'll highlight a few of the most notable below: | | Jordan Walker forcing Cardinals' hand? | | "Walker's 4-for-4 performance Saturday was like a Fantasy Baseball earthquake, shaking up draft boards as we all came to grips with the possibility that the 20-year-old might actually claim a job . "Sometimes players force your hand, and that's a beautiful thing," manager Oliver Marmol said. "We went into this camp saying there is going to be real competition and that's what he is making this -- a real competition." Of the two home runs Walker hit that day, one traveled 470 feet and the other came off the bat at 115 mph, which tells you all you need to know about his upside. That one game moved Walker up 80 spots in NFBC ADP, into the top 140, and in our latest mock draft, he was selected 100th overall." | | Anthony Volpe makes his case | | "The Yankees' top prospect is expected to wait his turn at Triple-A this year while fellow prospect Oswald Peraza gets first crack at the shortstop job. But Volpe is making it a competition with performances like Monday's, when he reached base three times (once on a single and twice on walks) and stole a bag. Overall, he's batting .353 (6 for 17) with a homer, two doubles and three steals. Meanwhile, Oswald Peraza is 2 for 9 and currently nursing a foot injury (albeit minor). | | "Manager Aaron Boone has acknowledged that Volpe could make the team even if Peraza and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are both healthy. "It's hard to answer what the criteria is," Boone said. "But we're paying attention." As of now, Peraza is still the one to target as a middle infield option in Rotisserie leagues, but Volpe has the potential to be a big base-stealer with some power to dream on." | | Nico Hoerner poised to lead off | | "After batting mostly fifth or lower in the Cubs lineup last year, Nico Hoerner is the early favorite to bat leadoff this year. "When I look at Nico, it's about setting a tone for our group to start a game," said manager David Ross. "He's as ready to go as anybody I've ever been around. Something about the way he plays sets a great tone for our team, so I like him starting things off." By batting average (.281 vs. .283), home runs (10 vs. 11) and stolen bases (20 vs. 18), Hoerner's numbers were almost identical to Amed Rosario's last year, but Rosario had a big advantage in runs and RBI as a No. 2 hitter. This move up the lineup for Hoerner could close the gap there and no longer justify the 45-pick ADP discrepancy between the two." | | | | | | | | Eye on College Basketball | | We Need To Talk | Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander bring college hoops to your ears, covering the biggest topics from around the sport.
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