| | | Softbank Leans In | | By Nick Rokke, Senior Analyst, The Bleeding Edge | | |
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| I am involved in a hundred businesses, and I control the entire ecosystem. [Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg] are not my peers. The right comparison for me is Napoleon or Genghis Khan or Emperor Qin. I am not a CEO. I am building an empire. |
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| These aren’t the words of a modest man. But they are the words of a visionary. | | Masayoshi Son – the billionaire founder of Japan-based media and technology conglomerate SoftBank – doesn’t see himself as a corporate leader. He sees himself as an empire builder. | | And in some ways, he’s earned that title. | | Because while Silicon Valley lionizes founders like Elon Musk or Sam Altman, Son has quietly shaped more of the modern tech world than most people realize. His empire is made up of investments – high-stakes bets on paradigm shifts that many others couldn’t yet see. | | In 1999, he invested $20 million in a fledgling Chinese startup named Alibaba (BABA). At its peak, Son’s stake was worth $130 billion – a 6,500x return. | | In 2016, SoftBank acquired semiconductor designer ARM Holdings for $31 billion. Today, ARM’s valuation exceeds $150 billion, and SoftBank still owns 90% of it. | | He even grabbed a 4.9% stake in Nvidia (NVDA) back in 2017 (This was after Jeff first recommended Nvidia in 2016). But Son sold too early. That “measly” $4 billion exit back in 2019 would be worth over $150 billion today. Son’s misses are billion-dollar events. | | And even his “mistakes” happen at a billion-dollar scale. But the pattern is clear: Son doesn’t just invest in companies. He invests in founders with grand visions of the future. And time and time again, Son has backed the right vision. | | Now, he’s making his boldest bet yet – one that could reshape America’s industrial landscape and supercharge the AI revolution. | | A $150 Billion War Chest | | Through his two Vision Funds, Son has deployed over $150 billion into high-growth technology startups. From chipmakers to robotics firms to artificial intelligence labs, SoftBank has played kingmaker across multiple waves of innovation. | | Some of these bets created staggering gains, not just for Son but for the entire SoftBank ecosystem. | | Here’s a snapshot of how SoftBank’s portfolio has evolved over time, along with some of its biggest plays: | | | | Source: netinterest.co | | Of course, not every investment has been a winner. Son famously lost $11.5 billion backing the absolute disaster of a company WeWork. That’s the ill-fated office leasing startup led by the extremely charismatic Adam Neumann. | | But even that didn’t shake his conviction. Because over the long arc of decades, Son has proven one thing beyond any doubt… | | He has a rare ability to see where the world is going… and the courage to place massive bets when others hesitate. | | So when he talks about making big bets, investors should pay attention. |
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| Masayoshi Son’s Next Big Bet | | Son and Softbank are no strangers to raising large sums of capital. SoftBank’s first Vision Fund raised a jaw-dropping $100 billion. That’s still the largest tech-focused investment vehicle in history. Vision Fund II followed with another $56 billion, much of it from SoftBank’s own balance sheet. | | These aren’t theoretical numbers. This is real capital deployed into hundreds of high-growth technology startups around the globe. | | And Son isn’t done. Late last year, he pledged to invest another $100 billion into U.S.-based artificial intelligence and innovation. Most wrote it off as typical Son-style bravado. | | Then came April… and Son’s involvement in Project Stargate. This is a $500 billion initiative to build a hyperscale AI compute cluster in the American heartland. Backed by a coalition of government and industry partners, Stargate is expected to power the next wave of frontier AI models. | | But that was just the warm-up. Son knows that most people won’t realize the true benefits of AI until they interact with a robot – likely a humanoid robot. And once they do, the world will change. | | On June 20, Son unveiled his most audacious project yet: a $1 trillion AI and robotics industrial complex to be built in Arizona. | | His goal is to recreate Shenzhen – the technology manufacturing center of China – right here in the United States. | | Project Crystal Land | | The project’s internal codename is Crystal Land. And Son’s vision is clear. | | He wants to build a dense ecosystem of startups, suppliers, and factories. Everything to optimize the building of intelligent machines. | | In Shenzhen’s Huaqiangbei district, robotics startups can source virtually any component – screws, sensors, actuators, motors – without ever leaving the neighborhood. They can walk across the street and have a conversation with a supplier in person. | | That kind of physical proximity is what turns ideas into prototypes… and prototypes into products. | | Son wants to bring that same supply chain magic to America. | | He’s already in talks with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), Samsung, and SoftBank-backed firms like Agile Robots to serve as foundational partners. The idea is to co-locate everything – component manufacturing, advanced chip fabrication, AI model training, robotic assembly – into a single, ultra-dense innovation hub. | | In Son’s own words, he’s not just investing in companies anymore. He’s building an empire. | | A Legacy in the Making | | It raises the question: Why would a billionaire investor known for bold tech bets suddenly pivot to city-building? | | Because in Son’s mind, this is about legacy. | | He’s publicly voiced frustration that, despite a few massive wins, the Vision Funds haven’t fully lived up to expectations. And in his mind, that means his place in history is still unaccomplished. | | To rewrite that story, he’s going bigger than ever. And he’s targeting the most important market of the next century: intelligent machines. | | In his recent remarks, Son laid out just how massive he believes this opportunity is. This is a long quote, but it’s important to fully understand how he views this opportunity… |
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| Some people […] say ‘You’re overspending, you’re spending $500 billion, you’re overspending! You can save so much more by spending less.’ But they are looking at it the wrong way. How much percent of GDP will be replaced by a smart system? I would say at least 5% within 10 years. That 5% is $9 trillion–or if it’s 10%, it’s $18 trillion. | | So, somewhere between 5% to 10% of today’s GDP will be replaced by this superintelligence. Well, if that’s the amount of return, you shouldn’t be scared of spending a few trillion dollars. If the return is $9 to $18 trillion per year, why should you save? Why should you try to be efficient? For what? I don’t get it. Just a little difference makes a huge return on your market share. |
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| It’s a bold perspective… But it’s also rational. | | If the upside is measured in trillions of dollars per year, what’s a few hundred billion or even a trillion in capital expenditures? | | And frankly, Son may still be underestimating the market opportunity. | | Do we really believe a world shaped by artificial general intelligence and autonomous robotics will only touch 10% of the global economy? | | A more realistic figure might be 30%… 50%… or more. |
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| The Spending Has Only Just Begun | | Even if Son’s math is conservative, the logic is sound. When the prize is measured in trillions, the spending will be relentless. | | Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, xAI, OpenAI – they’re all racing to dominate this future. And they’re accelerating spending, not pulling back. They all deeply understand what is at stake, and they all have access to the capital to pursue it. | | Look at Meta’s founder, Mark Zuckerberg. He recently launched a Superintelligence division at Meta. He invested about $15 billion for a 49% stake of Scale AI to bring on founder Alexandr Wang to leave Scale AI and head the new division. Then he reportedly poached three OpenAI researchers – likely with $100 million pay packages over four years. | | The numbers are mindboggling. This isn’t business as usual. This is the new arms race. Not one for guns and missiles, but for intelligence. | | And whether Masayoshi Son ultimately spends $500 billion or a full $1 trillion on Crystal Land is almost beside the point. | | Because what’s clear is that a generational wave of spending and investment is coming to the United States. | | That means one thing for investors. Now is the time to own the companies supplying the critical infrastructure for this new industrial revolution – from semiconductors and power chips to sensors, actuators, and robotic systems. | | These are the components that will animate the next generation of American workers. Not humans, but intelligent machines. | | If the U.S. wants to reshore manufacturing and stay competitive with China, we can’t do it with $2-a-day labor. We’ll need to rethink what “work” looks like. And more likely than not, it will be one human overseeing a fleet of intelligent robots. | | We estimate robotics will be a $100 trillion opportunity. And we haven’t even scratched the surface yet. This will be one of the most lucrative trends of our lifetime for those who know where to invest. | | | | The empire is being built. And for early investors, the rewards could be extraordinary. | | Regards, | | Nick Rokke
Senior Analyst,The Bleeding Edge | | |
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