| | | | Thursday, September 26, 2024 | | As we continue to look ahead to the 2025 season, today, I'm taking a look at six pitchers we're hoping for bounceback seasons from next time out. Three, I'm willing to buy the bounceback for, and three, I'm not so optimistic about. | | Three bouncebacks to buy | | Carlos Rodon, Yankees | | I'm gonna be honest: I'm kind of surprised that I find myself optimistic about Rodon's bounceback chances. This has been a frustrating season for Rodon, who has a 3.98 ERA entering his final start of the regular season, with peripherals that mostly match that. And I'm typically inclined to just take the full-season numbers as indicative of a player's talent level. But Rodon has been significantly better over the second half of the season, with a 2.87 ERA and 30.5% strikeout rate. And the biggest thing here is probably that Rodon ditched his largely ineffective cutter at the end of June, which seems to have helped both his slider and four-seamer play better | | Four-seamer through June: .401 xwOBA, 19% whiff rate Slider through June: .241 xwOBA, 38.3% whiff rate Four-seamer since July: .370 xwOBA, 23.9% whiff rate Slider since July: .181 xwOBA, 40.3% whiff rate | | The four-seamer and slider have always been Rodon's bread-and-butter pitches, and I genuinely didn't understand why he even bothered adding a cutter this spring. With his changeup also looking better than ever, I think Rodon's second half might actually be more like what we should expect from him moving forward, and I like him as a high-strikeout target who will likely go outside of the top 30 among SPs in 2025. | | | | Bobby Miller, Dodgers | | I don't have any "since X date" stats to paint a positive picture of Miller. There's absolutely nothing positive to take away from his 2024 season. This is solely a bet on an extremely talented pitcher who we all thought was a sure-fire ace last season and who was probably just never healthy this year. Well, not "never" – he struck out 11 and walked one in his very first start of the season, after all. But he developed shoulder issues shortly after that and ended up making just two more starts before going on the IL for two months. He was clearly never right after that, and I'm willing to make a low-cost bet that a healthy offseason can get him back on track. If he doesn't? Well, at least it'll cost a lot less than a top-75 pick to make the bet on him in 2025. | | Sandy Alcantara, Marlins | | I'm not 100% sure if this one counts since Alcantara obviously didn't pitch this season, but I'm throwing him in here to make sure you haven't forgotten about him. The last time we saw Alcantara, he was a pretty big disappointment, finishing 2023 with a 4.14 ERA before suffering an elbow injury that ultimately led to Tommy John surgery. But he was significantly better in the second half of that season, putting up a 3.20 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, and is already far enough along in his recovery from surgery that he has thrown simulated games and should have no limitations by Spring Training. This is kind of a double bounceback because I'm betting on Alcantara being significantly better than he was in 2023, and I might just rank him as a top-30 starting pitcher for 2025. | | | | Three bouncebacks to fade | | Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers | | Alright, so here's the thing with Glasnow: If you drafted him in 2024, even as a top-12 SP, it was a pretty good pick! You got 134 innings, 168 strikeouts, a 0.948 WHIP, and a 3.49 ERA from him, plus wherever you got from your replacements once he was ruled out for the season. Despite the season-ending elbow injury, you did a good job rolling the dice on Glasnow. | | Can you trust it a second year in a row? It worked out this time because the injury came in late August after he basically stayed healthy for the first four months of the season. It ended up being a career-high in innings, but his season also ended decisively with a sprained elbow. And, while Glasnow is "confident" he won't need surgery … a "sprain" is just another word for a "tear" in one (or more) of the ligaments in his elbow. If this injury happened in May, it very well may have ended Glasnow's season, and you'd feel very differently about how this all went down. | | That doesn't mean Glasnow necessarily will get hurt earlier on next season or even at all. But he's never made it through a full season in the majors healthy, and it just doesn't make much sense to bet on him doing so coming off a season-ending elbow surgery. There's still plenty of upside, even with the injury risk, but this injury just reminds us that the floor is the basement for Glasnow, unfortunately. | | Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays | | The wheels never quite come off for Gausman, who is going to end up with 180-plus innings for the third time in four seasons despite a shoulder injury in Spring Training that scared many off him in drafts. But if you did draft him, are you actually happy about it? I mean, he wasn't a disaster, but he was decidedly mediocre, with a 3.83 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. And even though he stayed healthy, his 162 strikeouts were a significant disappointment. If you just left Gausman in your lineup, you were fine, but he just wasn't a difference-maker, and I just don't think it makes a ton of sense to bet on a 34-year-old to stay healthy and bounce back from a disappointing season. It's not impossible, but it generally doesn't work that way. I probably won't rank Gausman inside of my top-40 SPs for 2025. | | Jesus Luzardo, Marlins | | Luzardo figures to be healthy for the start of 2025, as he was about six weeks away from being able to throw after his lumbar stress reaction back in early August. But that wasn't the only injury he dealt with this season, as he also missed time earlier in the season with a flexor strain in his left elbow. Given Luzardo's injury history, that's a major concern, and he has now thrown more than 100.1 innings in a season just once in the majors – and even if you count the minors, he's topped 100 four times, but has only reached even 130 once. It might be easier to talk myself into taking the chance on Luzardo if he pitched better this season, but he really struggled amid an understandable drop in velocity, and it really seems like there's a very narrow margin for error here – when he averages 96 mph-plus on his four-seamer, he's a pretty effective pitcher; anything below that, and he tends to get crushed. Given how unlikely it is you get a ton of volume from Luzardo, it just doesn't seem like the upside is there to overcome the obvious risks and limitations. | | | | Wednesday's recap | | | | News and Notes | | Francisco Lindor was set to return to the Mets lineup Wednesday, but that game has been postponed, as has Thursday's, as Hurricane Helene looms off the Florida coast. With both the Mets and Braves still playing for postseason spots, those games are expected to be made up as part of a doubleheader Monday, so check with your commissioner to make sure any stats from those games will count for your Roto leagues if you are still playing. This whole situation is kind of a mess, one that seemingly could have been avoided with a little more foresight on the part of MLB, but what's done is done. | | Yordan Alvarez will remain in Houston to work with the training staff and will miss this weekend against the Guardians. Alvarez is dealing with a sprained right knee, and is trying to get right before the postseason. | | Grayson Rodriguez has been shut down and won't pitch again this season. He's on the IL with a lat strain. His season ends with a 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 130 strikeouts over 116.2 innings, and it just feels like he should be better. He generates swinging strikes at a really high rate, so it's fair to wonder if there is more strikeout upside here, especially if he can make some tweaks to his approach. I'm neither in nor out on Rodriguez for 2025 until I see his price because I can still see the upside if he's drafted around SP30. | | Nestor Cortes was scratched from his start Wednesday and placed on the IL with a left elbow flexor strain. Cortes said he's hopeful to return if the Yankees make a deep run in the postseason. Marcus Stroman started in his place Wednesday and was not very good. | | Matt Wallner was placed on the IL with a left oblique strain. | | The Guardians activated Steven Kwan from the IL. He was in the lineup, batting leadoff, and returned with a bang, going 2 for 4 with his 14th homer. | | Seiya Suzuki was not in the lineup due to a sprained ankle he suffered on Tuesday. | | Reynaldo Lopez threw a bullpen Tuesday at about 80% intensity and feels ready to return from the IL. It's not yet clear if the Braves will indeed activate him, though it would make sense to have him pitch one half of that double-header next week if he's available. | | Bo Bichette underwent surgery Wednesday to have a pin inserted into his fractured right middle finger. He's expected to be fully ready for spring training, though whether that will happen with the Blue Jays is an open question at this point. | | Shane McClanahan touched 95 MPH in a 16-pitch live batting practice Wednesday as he continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery. He's expected to be ready for spring training next year, however, with it being his second Tommy John surgery, there's certainly elevated risk. McClanahan has ace upside, but should probably be drafted around SP40 after we saw Walker Buehler flop in his return from a second ligament replacement surgery. | | Daulton Varsho, who just had right shoulder surgery, is expected to be close to a full participant for spring training next year. | | Wednesday's standouts | | George Kirby, Mariners @HOU: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – It ended up being a pretty up-and-down season for Kirby, but he pretty much ended up where you should have expected, with a 3.53 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. I never bought the idea that he was primed for a big breakout, just because his approach simply doesn't lend itself to consistent strikeout numbers with how often he throws in the strike zone. It's an effective approach for Kirby, obviously, and you can have faith that the Mariners will continue to tinker and try to find that next level. It makes Kirby a solid SP1 if you want to wait in 2025 because there's both a high floor and at least a chance he unlocks that next level. | | Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks vs. SF: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 11 K – It's hard to know how much Gallen's gigantic jump in innings last season impacted him in 2024, but the good news when projecting forward is that he's shown signs of that elite upside again of late, with seven-plus strikeouts in six of his final seven starts after Wednesday. There have still been some control issues in that stretch, so he hasn't fixed everything, and his xERA has been over 4.00 in consecutive seasons, which is a concern. It hasn't caught up to him yet, but it does feel like Gallen is one of the more precarious high-end pitchers in Fantasy. He's probably still worth drafting as an SP2 for 2025, but I'd certainly prefer that to be on the lower end of the range. | | Yusei Kikuchi, Astros vs. SEA: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – The primary change the Astros made when they acquired Kikuchi was to get him to use his fastball a bit less, and it's hard to argue with the results, as he finishes his 10 starts with Houston with a 2.70 ERA, 0.92 WHOP and 76 strikeouts over 60 innings. We've seen stretches like this from Kikchu only to be disappointed in the long run, so I'm hesitant to just declare that he's an ace moving forward. But his peripherals have been better than his ERA all season, and he started pitching like it once he got to Houston, and that should be enough to make him a top-40 SP for 2025. | | Freddy Peralta, Brewers @PIT: 5.1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – Peralta is better than Kikuchi, but I'm not sure the gap is as wide as you might think. Since the start of 2023, Peralta's ERA is about a quarter-run better than Kikuchi's, with an edge in WHIP and strikeouts, too. That's not nothing, but it's a lot closer than their draft prices before the season would have made you think. I think the primary takeaway there is that Peralta was probably overrated coming into last season when he was drafted as a borderline SP1 on average based on a remarkable run in the second half. That dominant run never came in 2024, and I think he probably belongs more in the SP3 range for 2025. | | Erick Fedde, Cardinals @COL: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – At Coors Field? Okay, Erick. Fedde had a bit of preseason sleeper hype, and he mostly ended up living up to it, finishing with a 3.30 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his first year back in the majors. Outside of a few outlier starts like Wednesday's, the strikeouts were pretty underwhelming, and his peripherals suggest Fedde deserved something more like a high-3.00s ERA. He won't have much more hype in 2025, and there isn't much reason to think he'll deserve it. But he looks like a decent rotation filler piece in the later rounds if you find yourself needing a stabilizing force. That's not nothing; it just isn't much. | | Edward Cabrera, Marlins @MIN: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Cabrera was solid Wednesday against the Twins , continuing a solid stretch that saw him post a 3.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over his final 11 starts of the season. The problem is, "solid" was the best we got from him, and that just isn't good enough. Even in those 11 starts, he averaged barely more than five innings per start and still walked 4.0 per nine. Cabrera may yet figure it out, but heading into his age-27 season, we just haven't seen enough for him to be much more than a late-round target in 15-team leagues. | | Luis Ortiz, Pirates vs. MIL: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Ortiz continues to find success, and I continue to search for reasons to buy into it. But I just don't see it. He throws hard, but it doesn't generally lead to many strikeouts (19.2% for the season). His control is solid but not elite (7.7% walk rate), and he is basically dead-on league average when it comes to the quality of contact allowed. Add it all up, and you've got a 4.32 xERA that suggests his 3.32 actual ERA is a pretty big fluke. Ortiz won't really be on my draft board for 2025. | | Jakob Junis, Reds @CLE: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Ditto Junis, who has been very solid for the Reds, posting a 1.71 ERA and 0.57 WHIP over his past four starts. But he's only gone more than five innings once and has just 17 strikeouts in those 21 innings, so I just don't see much to get excited about here. His best-case scenario is, like, a Nick Martinez season? That's valuable for a real-life team, but I don't see much reason to be interested for Fantasy. | | Isaac Paredes, 3B, Cubs – The trade to the Cubs has mostly played out like our nightmare scenarios from the deadline suggested, as he is hitting just .227/ with three homers in 49 games. Given Paredes' lack of raw power, the park downgrade from Tampa to Chicago has just killed his power stroke, and even during a relative hot streak in September, where he has hit .301 after Wednesday's four-hit game, it has come with no homers and just two doubles. Unless Paredes is unexpectedly traded again this offseason, he might just be un-draftable for Fantasy, sadly. | | Nico Hoerner , 2B, Cubs – Hoerner has had a weird season. He had just one stolen base in April and really didn't do very much at all in the first half of the season, hitting just .256 with 48 runs in 89 games. But he's looked much more like the 2023 version of himself here in the second half, hitting .299 with three homers, 37 runs, and 16 steals in 59 games after Wednesday's two-homer game, which makes it a lot easier to see drafting him as a top-10 second baseman for 2025. That's partially an indictment of the weakness of second base as a position, but Hoerner still deserves credit for getting there. | | Cedric Mullins, OF, Orioles – Mullins' offseason could be fascinating. On the one hand, he turns 30 on Oct. 1, making him the grizzled vet among the Orioles' cast of almost-literal children. And he's due another pay raise in his final year of arbitration eligibility, and with the Orioles' glut of outfielders, they might opt to move him with a year of club control left. On the other hand, at a time when much of the lineup has been slumping, Mullins has been terrific, hitting .245 with nine homers, 14 steals, and an .805 OPS in the second half. He's going to end up with close to 20 homers and over 30 steals on the season and still has plenty of value for Fantasy in 2025 – and might have even more if the Orioles trade him somewhere with less playing time concerns. Don't forget about Mullins for 2025. | | Jake Burger , 3B, Marlins – It's been a rocky season for Burger, to say the least, but he just might end up with 30 homers when all is said and done after he hit his 29th Wednesday. There's been a ton of inconsistency, but on the whole, his second half has been very solid, as he is hitting .273 with 19 homers and a .910 OPS. He still strikes out a lot more than he did during his apparent 2023 second-half breakout, and the chances of Burger being anything more than a liability in batting average are pretty slim. Add in the poor lineup around him, and Burger seems like a pretty one-dimensional power hitter at this point, someone only worth drafting as a middle infielder for 2025. | | | | | | | | NFL | | NWSL | Quarterbacks headline a CBS Sports Sunday of NFL week 4. Watch your local game live this Sunday at 1 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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