Satellites are booming, but Earth’s orbit is filling up with dangerous junk. It's a looming crisis, and the dawn of a new industry.

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Space junk sounds like something Han Solo might grumble about while fixing the Millennium Falcon.

“It’s always gettin’ in the way, why doesn’t anyone clean this crap up?”

The idea of space junk (the technical term being space debris) isn’t a new one. From classic sci-fi novels to modern movies, there are many fictional tales which explore the concept.

But space junk is no longer science fiction. It’s real, it’s growing fast, and threatening satellites — like a silent crisis you can’t see from earth.

After getting inspired by Wyatt's musings on the space economy, today I’ll unpack why this is a serious problem, and explore the space agencies and startups who are trying to solve it.

Let's go 👇

Matt Valentine is a father, husband, and published author. He writes on the intersection of investing, business, psychology, and storytelling. He's also a lifelong gamer and lover of all things fantasy and sci-fi. Previously, he explored The Pokémon Go Acquisition. This is his second issue with Alts.

Is space junk really a problem?

While everyone is watching SpaceX launches and dreaming of Mars colonies, an orbital crisis is looming just overhead, growing worse by the day.

How big a crisis? Like, an apocalyptic-for-satellites-level crisis.

That is, unless we start doing something about it in the next 2–3 decades.

To paint a picture, let’s go back to the dawn of the Space Age.

Humans have been launching satellites, probes, shuttles, and the occasional Tesla Roadster into orbit for almost seventy years.

Every time something breaks, collides, or explodes (intentionally or not), debris gets left behind.

According to NASA, more than 170 million pieces of space junk, together weighing over 14,000 metric tons, are currently orbiting Earth; ranging from millimeter-long metal fragments to school bus-sized dead satellites.

Pretty startling to see it all shown in one place, isn’t it?

Why is space junk a problem?

1. High-speed orbital hazards

This debris is traveling at roughly 17,500 mph — fast enough to puncture a spacecraft like a bullet going through a soda can.

Between 2018 and 2023, there were 18 reported incidentsinvolving orbital debris hitting satellites or rockets, and many more near-misses.

For example, in 2021 a Chinese satellite reportedly broke apart after a collision with a piece of an old Russian rocket. The result: a cloud of metallic fragments sprayed across a wide orbital path.

That brings us to an important point: when two pieces of space junk collide, those two pieces of debris multiply to become exponentially more microparticles!

This chain reaction effect is referred to as the Kessler Syndrome. Even if we stopped launching today, debris-on-debris collisions would continue to generate more junk, making space increasingly hazardous

Here’s a rough breakdown of what’s up there:

2. Falling debris

Debris doesn’t stay in orbit forever. Eventually, gravity pulls this space junk back down. And to be fair, most of this junk burns up during reentry.

But some pieces don’t! For example, in 2021, a 20-ton Chinese rocket, the Long March 5B, fell uncontrolled back to Earth.

This wasn’t the first or last time China would allow a piece of its space junk to fall uncontrolled back to Earth, a move that NASA strongly criticized.

Luckily this rocket landed in the Indian Ocean, but next time we may not be so lucky.

3. Potential ozone depletion

When satellites burn during reentry, they create aluminum oxides. So tests are currently being performed to uncover whether aluminum, titanium, and other metallic particles could be affecting Earth’s ozone layer.

With roughly three satellites reentering our atmosphere each day, these could potentially continue to cause damage to the Earth’s ozone layer over an extended period of time.

How are we tracking all this junk?

Currently, about 42,000 objects are tracked reliably by global space surveillance networks. But there are an estimated 140 million smaller pieces, which we can’t reliably track.

After the U.S. Air Force shut down its original Space Surveillance System in 2013, there was a 7-year gap before the launch of our current system for orbital object detection, called Space Fence.

Yes, you read that right: for seven years the US had no reliable way of tracking all that junk in our orbital trunk.

Fortunately, we do now. And we’re not the only ones.

Around the world, a growing number of programs are working to monitor orbital debris and share warnings.

Most major powers now operate their own tracking systems:

There are also some international organizations helping out, like the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, and the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee.

Because objects in orbit follow the laws of physics, as long as we have the data, we can calculate where they'll end up. Radar systems track their positions over time, helping us estimate their future orbits. That lets us warn satellite operators about possible collisions

NASA’s response

NASA has launched or funded several orbital debris research programs. But shrinking budgets have made it difficult for them to lead directly.

Recent budget proposals have slashed NASA’s allocations by as much as 25%, casting a great big question mark over its ability to execute large-scale cleanup projects.

In other words, the door is wide open for anyone to solve and capitalize on the issue.

A billion-dollar cleanup opportunity

Every mess is a market waiting to happen. (I need a shirt that says that)

And this mess? It’s planetary in scale, global in relevance, and growing exponentially.

So who would pay to clean this up?

Remember, each new collision creates thousands of new potential collisions. Cleanup demand will be sky high in a decade or two as this becomes a much more pressing issue over time.

The hurdles

One of the biggest hurdles is international cooperation.

Sovereign nations don’t always play nicely, and space just complicates that. Ownership and territory go out the window, and existing laws prevent any party from touching space objects it didn’t launch. That makes joint cleanup missions legally tricky.

Ironically, startups with international investors and dual-country operations might be more agile than governments.

Which brings us to funding. NASA is funding some programs, but again, their funding is shrinking over time and may be slashed again soon.

This means that startup growth may be slow if outside investors don’t step up to the plate and recognize the issue.

But as collisions and reentries become more frequent, investor attention should follow.

Startups to watch: Who’s doing something about this?

We’re in the very early days of space junk solutions, but there are already some very cool, ambitious ideas being tested

TransAstra (Catch-and-release)

​TransAstra is working on a space cleanup tool that’s a frankencombo between a big net, an inflatable bag, and futuristic space vacuum.

The cool thing about this solution is that it isn’t just napkin sketches. The tech is based on actual asteroid-capturing methods that have been used in real NASA missions.

This makes it one of the most promising designs being developed, something that will be tested later this year when TransAstra completes its first official cleanup mission.

This solution sounds great, but it remains to be seen whether this kind of physical capture approach can scale beyond single-object retrieval.

Space lasers (Course-correct, not vaporize)

At the University of Texas, Dr. Jonathan Lee is building a space laser network.

But instead of blasting junk into oblivion like a mobile Death Star, it gently nudges it out of critical orbits as a kind of course correction tool.

Lee was granted $200,000 per year for three years by NASA to design his network of space lasers as well as the algorithm that will control them.

The lasers will be controlled by AI using a “digital twin” orbital simulation system.

This method doesn’t destroy debris, but it can lower risk by decongesting key orbital paths (though its standalone impact is limited). And while promising, it's still unclear whether this system could handle the volume or complexity of real-world debris scenarios.

ClearSpace (Tow truck)

One concept by ClearSpace is self-described as a mix between a claw and a tow truck.

The tow truck part comes from the fact that it would be guiding or pulling a single piece of debris back toward the atmosphere.

As opposed to the space laser solution, this would completely remove debris from our atmosphere.

ClearSpace’s mission, which they refer to as mission CLEAR, is to prove that it’s possible by being the first to do so, paving the way for future debris removal efforts.

Their first mission (CLEAR) recently advanced to phase 2, even after their target debris was, get this, struck by another object — ironically proving the urgency of the mission!

Closing thoughts

There are lots of global problems that could potentially get worse over time, but not all of them compound in the way that space debris does.

We may be years (decades?) away from a successful clean up method, but the opportunity is unmistakable:

I think us investors may have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to get in early on this entirely new industry. I’ll be “watching this space” (ha ha).

We may also see new tangential markets emerge around debris risk modeling, avoidance algorithms, and compliance services. Basically entire ecosystems built around helping operators mitigate and manage orbital liability.

Heck, satellite insurers are already taking debris risk into account, which could further raise premiums and drive demand for orbital cleanup solutions. (See: Satellite insurance is in freefall as space risks multiply)

While this all may be less glamorous than SpaceX, Starship Heavy, or colonizing Mars, space junk could be something of a gold rush hiding in plain sight. It feels like the kind of unsexy but necessary opportunity that few see coming.

That is, if you don’t look up. 🛰️

That's it for today!

Come find me on in the Alts Community.

Matt

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