| | | | Thursday, September 5, 2024 | | Dread it. Run from it. The Glob arrives all the same. | | At starting pitcher, there are a handful of players at the top of the position who truly matter – they're the legitimate aces you expect six strong innings from every time they take the mound. And then there's a larger mass of players at the bottom of the position who just truly don't matter for Fantasy Baseball purposes – the guys who you would have to be truly desperate to ever even think about putting in your lineup. | | And then there's that big middle class of guys who seem to be wild cards every time they take the mound. Scott White referred to that group of pitchers as "The Glob" last season, as those pitchers who you were probably starting more often than not, but whose value seemed to fluctuate wildly with seemingly every start. Whether because they just couldn't find consistency, struggled with the long ball, or just were uniquely ill-suited to pitching in the modern game, this group of pitchers created massive headaches for Fantasy players, because they might go a month with terrific production and then they might give it all back with one huge dud or two. | | For a while this season, it looked like The Glob might be a thing of the past. Remember back in the halcyon days of April and May where seemingly every schlub who picked up a baseball and toed the rubber was firing off six innings of one-run ball? Yeah, that's done, and we're back to last year's status quo. And no pitcher better exemplifies that than Spencer Arrighetti right now. | | | | The last time Arrighetti took the mound before Wednesday was on Aug. 28, when he absolutely dominated the Phillies, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning and finishing with 11 strikeouts over 7.2 innings of work. Here's what I had to say about him in this very newsletter after that start: "But the high end is extremely high, and it's worth chasing in all formats. We might just be looking at a true breakout here, and he's certainly worth adding in the 26% of CBS Fantasy leagues where he is currently available." | | Arrighetti was rostered in 84% of leagues, and more importantly, started in 63% for Wednesday's start against the Reds, when he turned in what was one of the absolute worst performances by a starter all season, surrendering nine earned runs on six hits and three walks. Now, I'll note in the interest of fairness that some of those runs may end up coming off his line, as there was an obvious defensive miscue by Jeremy Pena that could have been ruled an error. But still, this was a disaster even if it was six earned runs instead of nine, especially for those of you saddled with what might be a completely unsalvageable -21 points in your H2H playoffs. | | If I wanted to be fair to myself, I could point out that I did say, "I still think there's quite a wide range of possible outcomes for Arrighetti moving forward." But I don't think there's anything to be gained from that kind of obfuscation here – I was extremely excited about Arrighetti last week, and even if I tempered it a bit, I don't think any of you would be wrong to point out that I was a lot more optimistic about Arrighetti than not. | | | | And why wouldn't I have been? Arrighetti has had his issues this season, but it sure looked like he had figured it out before this one, racking up double-digit strikeouts in three of his previous five starts and sporting a 2.77 ERA and 11.6 K/9 in his previous nine. Arrighetti has shown impressive stuff from the very first time he was called up earlier in the season, and it wasn't unreasonable to think he might have figured it out. | | And here's the really annoying thing: It's still not unreasonable to think he might have. This might just end up being a speed bump on the road to Arrighetti establishing himself as a very good major-league pitcher; if that was the case, I really wouldn't be surprised at all. The talent is obvious, and it might just be the case that he had one truly horrible start amid a run of otherwise exceptional pitching. He wouldn't be the first pitcher to go through something similar – George Kirby has had a few outings like that this season, as has Bailey Ober, to name just two otherwise must-start pitchers for Fantasy. | | But you don't want to hear about Arrighetti's potential for 2025 if he just helped end your 2024 season. You have my condolences if that's the case – and if it makes you feel any better, that outing basically single-handedly dropped me from third in ERA to fifth in my AL-only LABR league and probably guarantees I have no chance of winning the league after sitting in the top-five for most of the season. It stinks that it went down this way. | | But that's the problem with having to rely on The Glob. Things can be going great for weeks, even months, but these Globby pitchers can always undo that good work with one poorly timed outing. And, unfortunately, it's almost impossible to avoid those types of pitchers – you could try to focus on early-round pitchers to lock in as many aces as possible, but as we've seen throughout this season, between injuries and steps backward, that's no guarantee of a great pitching staff. | | The truth is, the next person who unlocks the secret to consistently building a great pitching staff will be the first. You're going to need pitchers like Arrighetti to have a chance to compete for a championship, just like you're probably going to need pitchers like Seth Lugo or Tyler Anderson who might just get hot for a couple of months. Every pitching staff is being held together with duct tape and a wish by this point in the season, and just because you avoided the Arrighetti landmine doesn't mean someone else won't blow up in your face. | | This is the nature of The Glob, and it doesn't look like it's going anywhere. | | Phew, that was kind of a wordy intro, so we'll skip the waiver-wire portion of the newsletter today and get right into everything you need to know from Wednesday's action around MLB beyond Arrighetti's struggles. | | | News and Notes
| | Corey Seager was placed on the IL with hip discomfort. We went from "he'll be limited at times" to "his season might be over" in about two days. Injuries remain an issue for Seager, but I do want to point out that, after a slow start to the season, he ended up hitting .296/.371/.592 over his final 91 games, with a 50-homer pace. Your opinion of Seager's value for 2025 shouldn't really be diminished in any way after this season. | | If you're looking for Seager replacements, consider these names: | | Shallow leagues: Dansby Swanson (80%), Xavier Edwards (78%)Less shallow leagues: Masyn Winn (72%), Tommy Edman (57%)Middle infield options for deeper leagues: Brooks Lee (31%), Geraldo Perdomo (30%), Paul DeJong (27%)Deep leagues: Jose Tena (11%), Otto Lopez (6%) | | Joe Espada told reporters that it's unlikely that Kyle Tucker will be activated before Thursday's game against the Reds. Tucker is basically day-to-day at this point, as he has mostly recovered from what the team only recently finally admitted was a fractured shin. | | Bryce Harper left after getting hit by a pitch in the left elbow. Harper said he felt better after getting treatment, so hopefully, he won't miss too much time. | | Yoshinobu Yamamoto will return Tuesday against the Cubs. He only built up to 53 pitches in his last rehab start, so I'd plan on sitting him in most leagues. But if he pitches well, it should be all systems go for the stretch rune. | | Aaron Boone said the Yankees will get creative with the closer role going forward, which seems to indicate some combination of Luke Weaver, Mark Leiter Jr., Jake Cousins, or Tommy Kahnle getting some opportunities. If I had to bet on someone getting the next save, it would be Kahnle, who has primarily worked the eighth inning, but I also wouldn't be surprised if Clay Holmes ultimately got some opportunities after a little time off. | | Boone also acknowledged that the Yankees might have to move either Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt to the bullpen after they both return from the IL in the next week, and either could figure into the ninth-inning plans. In fact, I think Gil is probably the best choice, given the Yankees' need to limit his innings and the fact that his stuff could play up even more in short bursts. | | Justin Steele was placed on the IL with left elbow tendinitis, which will more than likely end his season, unfortunately. Injuries bookended Steele's season, but in between, he proved his 2023 success was no fluke. He's probably a top-24 SP for 2025. | | Royce Lewis made his first-ever start at second base on Wednesday. Jose Miranda started at third with Carlos Santana at first. There probably isn't enough time for Lewis to add 2B eligibility for 2025, but it would be a nice wrinkle if they decided to make this an everyday thing. | | Grayson Rodiguez threw a bullpen session Wednesday, his first time throwing off a mound since he was diagnosed with a strained lat a month ago. I think he's a long shot to make an impact the rest of the way, but hold on to him if you have the IL spot to play with. | | Kodai Senga threw a 25-pitch bullpen session Wednesday, and there has been some talk he could return this season as a reliever. He probably won't have any kind of Fantasy value, but it would be nice to see him healthy and effective on the mound heading into 2025. | | Jorge Lopez was placed on the IL with a right groin strain, which should further ensure Porter Hodge will be the top saves option for the Cubs. | | Heston Kjerstad has cleared concussion protocol and is ramping up baseball activities. | | Ryan Weathers tossed three scoreless innings in his first rehab start at Single-A on Tuesday. He could be back in Miami's rotation before the end of the season, but would only be worth watching to see if he can give us something to get excited about for 2025. | | Paul Blackburn will rejoin the Mets' rotation early next week in Toronto. He's strictly a streamer, and I'm not sure I'd want to use him in that matchup anyway. | | Wednesday's Standouts | | George Kirby, Mariners @OAK: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – We needed this bounceback from Kirby, who had a 6.84 ERA and 1.72 ERA over his previous five starts. I never had much concern about Kirby despite both that stretch and his overall 3.61 ERA, but that's mostly because I never viewed him as the top-five pitcher some were drafting him as. He has his obvious strengths, including league-best control, but he also has inconsistent swing-and-miss stuff and a tendency to really get crushed when things aren't going well – something I think might be related to how much Kirby pounds the strike zone. Like all Mariners pitchers, Kirby is constantly tinkering with his arsenal, but I still think the missing link for him is more of a willingness to pitch effectively out of the zone. That's the path to ace-dom, if you ask me. | | Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks @SF: 6 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 8 K – All told, this is probably the best start we've seen from Gallen in a long time, but it still doesn't all quite look right. I mean, look, who am I to complain about six no-hit innings? But the control remains an issue for Gallen, whose walk rate continues to trend well above career norms. It wasn't a problem in this one, as he kept the Giants off balance and generated a bunch of weak contact. But am I ready to declare that he's back to being an unquestioned ace after this one? No, I am not. | | Shota Imanaga , Cubs vs. PIT: 7 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – Imanaga tossed the first seven innings of the Cubs' combined no-hitter, and he tossed a season-high 103 pitches in doing so. You could maybe argue the Cubs could have let him chase the complete game, but they clearly have an approach they want to take with him, and who can argue with the results? Imanaga has been one of the best pitchers in baseball as a rookie, combining solid strikeout numbers with excellent command and results on balls in play, helping him thrive despite a high flyball rate. That flyball rate didn't end up being as big of an issue as we thought it might be as the weather warmed up, and it's kept Imanaga squarely among the must-start pitcher tier basically from Day One. Between Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill, it might be tough for Imanaga to have a chance to win Rookie of the Year, but he's got a signature moment for his resume. | | Sonny Gray, Cardinals @MIL: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Gray was really going through it for most of the summer, sporting a 5.83 ERA over a nine-start stretch starting at the beginning of July. But he's bounced back nicely over the past two starts, allowing just two runs over 13 innings of work with 11 strikeouts. You'd like to see more strikeouts than that, but Gray has mixed in a few more sinkers of late to try to focus on keeping the ball in the yard after he allowed 13 homers in that nine-start stretch. Gray is one of those pitchers who is probably never quite as bad as he looks at his worst, nor is he ever quite as good as he looks at his best. At the end of the day, I think you're probably best served just leaving him in your lineup and riding the roller coaster. | | Tanner Houck, Red Sox @NYM: 5 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Houck has been playing with fire lately, and things are increasingly starting to get ugly. He allowed four or more runs for the third time in his past seven starts Wednesday, and he now has a 4.78 ERA in nine starts since the All-Star break. He has generally managed to avoid hard contact even in that run, but he couldn't quite do so in this one, giving up 13 balls in play with a 91.6 mph average exit velocity. But the bigger problem overall has just been a disappearance of strikeouts, as Houck has just 38 in 52.2 innings since the break; he had 112 in 117 innings prior to the break. I don't think I could trust Houck in a two-start week against the Orioles and Yankees next week. | | Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies @TOR: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – Sanchez has had his ups and downs this season, but on the whole, I think he's been pretty awesome, and I think his 3.45 ERA for the season is pretty legitimate. The tough stretches in the summer were frustrating, and Sanchez's lack of strikeout upside means he doesn't have a lot of ways to contribute when he isn't keeping runs off the board well. But his peripherals all suggest he's at least a mid-3.00s ERA pitcher, if not a bit better, and he's consistently pitched deep into games. He's a must-start pitcher in my eyes. | | Seth Lugo, Royals vs. CLE: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – "Is Seth Lugo a Glob Pitcher " – The greatest thread in the history of forums, locked by a moderator after 12,239 pages of heated debate. I think Lugo is probably a must-start pitcher for a lot of the same reasons as Sanchez – when things are going well, he tends to pitch very deep into games, and for the most part, he's pitched very well. But his peripherals aren't quite as good as Sanchez's, and it's not like he has the ability to limit hard contact that could make him outrun his mostly middling strikeout rate – his 3.92 xERA, which takes quality of contact into account is pretty middling this deep into the season. Lugo is fine, and when he's on, he's more than fine. But it's been a rough second half, and you should have seen that coming. | | Yu Darvish, Padres vs. DET: 2.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – This wasn't a great start, even accounting for the fact that Darvish missed three full months away from the team. His velocity mostly looked fine, though, so I think it's reasonable to expect Darvish to more or less look like himself moving forward. But here's the problem: He didn't on Wednesday, and now you have a very tough decision to make for next week with the Mariners on the schedule. It's arguably been the best matchup in the league for pitchers, but can you really trust Darvish coming off this mediocre outing? I'd be hesitant. | | Bowden Francis, Blue Jays vs. PHI: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – This was Francis' worst start in more than a month, which mostly serves to tell you how good he's been lately. He still had the elite control and got solid strikeouts, but the Phillies were able to jump on him for some hard contact, including two homers. Still, the results were good and there wasn't really anything too worrisome in the approach, so I'm not too worried about Francis moving forward. He's more or less a must-start pitcher after that run – though as Arrighetti just showed us, that doesn't mean he'll actually be good every time out. | | Mackenzie Gore, Nationals @MIA: 6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – If you need a pitcher from the waiver wire, Gore is probably the best candidate from Wednesday's action. He took a perfect game into the sixth inning and continues to turn his season around with his third consecutive quality start. Gore continues to sit at 96 mph with his four-seamer, an improvement after his velocity flagged mid-season, and he has walked just two over his past three starts, with 19 strikeouts in 18 innings of work. Gore went through some mechanical issues that he ironed out in recent weeks, and looks more like the guy we were so excited about earlier in the season when he looked like one of the league's best breakouts. I don't think we should expect continued dominance, necessarily – The Glob, and all – but with two starts next week against the Braves and Marlins, I'm probably starting him in all leagues. | | Bobby Miller, Dodgers @LAA: 5 IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 8 K – Miller keeps searching, and you can see there is still talent here in the solid whiff and strikeout numbers. But outside of that one great start against the Rays a few turns ago, he's just been miserable this season. I'm not giving up on Miller in the long run, but I'm more than fine dropping him at this point. | | Albert Suarez, Orioles vs. CHW: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – Suarez is also pretty easy to drop after struggling this badly against the White Sox of all teams. I'm not saying he won't be useful moving forward, but if you can't trust a fringe starter against the best matchup in baseball, who can you trust them against? Certainly not the Red Sox next week. | | | | | | | | Cover 3 | | NWSL | Cover 3 College Football Podcast is the perfect call for any die-hard fan. Join hosts Chip Patterson, Danny Kanell, Tom Fornelli, and Bud Elliott as they take you from National Signing Day to the national championship.
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