| | | | Wednesday, May 21, 2025 | | Velocity matters. You can overcome diminished velocity, of course – Logan Webb and Nathan Eovaldi are two of the best pitchers in baseball right now and neither exactly lights up the radar gun – but, all else being equal, a faster fastball is going to play better than a slower one. | | And Spencer Strider has lost his fastest fastball. That's not necessarily surprising with Strider coming back from elbow surgery little more than a year ago, but it's the key takeaway from his first two starts of the season, the second of which came Tuesday, in his first start back from a hamstring injury. | | Strider struggled against a pretty mediocre Nationals lineup, surrendering four runs over 4.1 innings of work, with just three strikeouts. He got a decent nine whiffs on 75 pitches but just didn't look like himself. Strider, who averaged 97.2 mph in 2023, his last healthy season, topped out at 97.0 Tuesday and averaged 95.0. How much does that matter? Well, let's just look at what Strider's fastball has done in his career when he has thrown it 97 mph or harder, compared to when it has been below 97: | | 97 mph and below | | 23.3% whiff rate, .394 expected xwOBA allowed | | 97 and above | | 29.5% whiff rate, .271 expected xwOBA allowed | | For some comparison, last season, Hunter Brown had a 29.6% whiff rate and .285 xwOBA allowed on his four-seamer, while Dean Kremer had a 23.2% whiff rate and .373 xwOBA on his four-seamer. It's not quite as simple as that – you can't just remove one of a pitcher's pitches from the rest of his arsenal, because everything plays off everything else – but the point is, at least to this point in his career, Strider's fastball has been an elite pitch when he throws it in the high-90s and a pretty mediocre one when he throws it more in the mid-90s. | | And it's an important pitch for Strider. He's not a Max Fried type who mixes in six different pitches, all with different movement profiles and velocity bands. Strider is not a subtle pitcher – he's coming at you with fastballs about 60% of the time, sliders about 30% of the time, and then the occasional changeup (or even more rare curveball) the rest of the time. In 2022, 120 of his 202 strikeouts came off the four-seamer; in 2023, 124 of 281 did. | | Strider can still be good if he's sitting at 95 mph, but he probably can't be the best pitcher in baseball. I think he'll improve on his velocity from Tuesday, too – he made that start after missing more than a month with a hamstring injury, and he didn't even go on a real rehab assignment, opting instead for a simulated game before returning. He was sitting at 95.7 mph in his three Triple-A starts before coming back the first time, and was at 95.4 in his first start before the hamstring injury, so it's not like he's fated to average 95 forever after last year's elbow surgery. | | | | But we haven't seen the old velocity come back yet. It's a small sample size, of course, but Strider is also one of the first truly elite pitchers to try to come back from an internal brace rather than a full Tommy John surgery, so we also don't have a ton of other examples we can point to. Strider is kind of an experiment in a way, and that makes it hard to say anything with certainty about how he's likely to pitch moving forward. | | But I think you have to be pretty discouraged by what we've seen in his first two starts back. Especially because Strider has struggled to maintain his velocity in both starts so far. That should get better as he continues to build his arm strength up, but it also suggests that he's tiring early despite being at a significant velocity deficit. | | I'm aware that I expressed some similar concerns with Jacob deGrom earlier in the season, and he has rediscovered most of his pre-injury velocity and once again looks like one of the best pitchers in baseball. Though, I will note, deGrom still doesn't look quite like his pre-injury form yet; it's just that his baseline was so high that even taking a real step back still puts deGrom among the very best in baseball. | | Strider has that kind of upside, but he wasn't quite on deGrom's level before his injury. And he certainly doesn't look to be on that level right now. I'm not writing him off or anything, but I do think you'll probably need to exercise some patience with Strider. I don't expect him to struggle quite as badly as Sandy Alcantara has so far, but that's another cautionary tale – and Alcantara's raw stuff looks closer to what it did prior to the injury than Strider's does. At least so far. | | I do still have faith that Strider will probably be a top-20 SP the rest of the way, but I'm not treating him that way right now. There's a buy-low window here if you're bold, but it would probably have to be a true lowball offer – I'm probably not giving up a top-30 pitcher for him, given the risk that he never rediscovers his form or the rest that he just can't stay healthy. | | Here's what else you need to know about from Tuesday's action around MLB: | | Wednesday's top waiver-wire targets | | We've got a bunch of interesting pitcher targets to consider for the waiver wire from Tuesday's games, but before we get to that, let's talk about a former top-prospect outfielder getting the call. | | With Dylan Crews nursing a back/side injury that will at least require an MRI (and could end with him on the IL), the Nationals are promoting former first-rounder Robert Hasell to make his MLB debut Wednesday. Hasell had been a top-100 prospect from 2021 through 2023 but has mostly struggled since getting to the high-minors, hitting just .238/.328/.334 at Double-A, and even worse overall at Triple-A. So, is there anything worth getting excited about here? | | Probably not, but I'm not writing him off entirely. Hasell performed well in the Arizona Fall League at the end of last season and then generated a bit of buzz as a potential long-shot to make the Opening Day roster after a big spring. He hasn't quite carried that over in Triple-A, but he has been better than last season, hitting .277/.327/.384 with a strikeout rate below 20%. He hasn't shown much over-the-fence power, but Hasell has also put together a solid 91.1 mph average exit velocity, with a respective 110.5 max. The problem is more about an inability to consistently lift the ball, but the tools are here for Hasell to at least matter, especially with plus speed and an aggressive approach on the bases. | | I'm not sure Hasell needs to be added in any points leagues, and even most 12-team Roto leagues are probably too shallow to really justify running out and adding him. But in a 15-team Roto league, where 75 outfielders are started and probably closer to 100 are rostered, I can certainly see the case for adding him. Not in every league, but if you've got a roster spot to play with, why not see if you can catch lightning in a bottle? | | | | Ryan Weathers, SP, Marlins (59%) – The Marlins probably regretted taking Weathers out after five innings and 80 pitches Tuesday, as the bullpen completely imploded after he was gone, and maybe there's a lesson to be found there. Weathers' line won't blow you away – one run on five hits while striking out four over five innings of work – but it's worth remembering that this was his second straight start against the Cubs, and hitters tend to see pitchers better the more they see them. That Weathers was able to overcome that is a testament to the jump in stuff quality he has experienced. The Cubs loaded the lineup with righties and he responded with increased changeup usage, and that pitch and the fastball performed well, combining for nine whiffs and an 82.8 mph average exit velocity on 13 balls in play. His sweeper is a terrific weapon against lefties, too, so there's plenty to like about the whole arsenal. Wins are going to be tough to come by unless Weathers is perfect, but he's looked terrific in his first two starts and should be rostered in all formats at this point. | | Logan Henderson, SP, Brewers (73%) – And Henderson isn't far behind him. He generated 20 whiffs against the Orioles Tuesday, the third-most by any pitcher against them all season . Henderson also made it through just five innings (his on 90 pitches), but he limited the Orioles to just two hits and a pair of walks without allowing a run and while striking out seven. That changeup/fastball combo has been awesome for him, and his cutter showed up to generate three whiffs on eight swings in this (plus four fouls!), which is a nice expansion of the arsenal. He has more strikeouts than innings in all three starts to date, with 23 strikeouts to just four walks in his first 16 MLB innings. I don't think Henderson is a future ace or anything, but he looks great right now, and I can't imagine leaving him on waivers anywhere he is available right now. | | Will Warren, SP, Yankees (66%) – It's also hard to imagine leaving Warren on waivers right now with the way he's pitching. He struck out a career-high 10 batters in 5.2 innings against the Rangers and now has a 1.50 ERA and 25 strikeouts to three walks over 18 innings in his past three starts. He leaned on the sinker more for weak contact in this one but continued to generate plenty of whiffs with his four-seamer and sweeper as well, while the changeup has looked pretty good for him overall. Warren's overall numbers aren't nearly that impressive, as he was struggling with control and hard contact earlier on, but he seems to be figuring it out these days and is worth adding in most leagues where available right now. | | Hayden Birdsong, SP, Giants (52%) – Birdsong made his first start since returning to the rotation Tuesday and it went pretty well, as he allowed just one unearned run over five innings of work, with five hits, four strikeouts, and most importantly, zero walks. Control was the biggest issue for Birdsong last season, and while he showed some signs of improvement in that regard in the bullpen to open the season, a 10% strikeout rate is still pretty rough. He got up to 80 pitches in this one, so there should be some opportunity for more length moving forward, and I do think Birdsong could be pretty solid, though I'm not sure I buy that there is as much upside as some others think. | | | | Tuesday's standouts | | Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers vs. ARI: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – Yamamoto took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and dominated despite struggling to command his splitter as well as he normally does. He turned to his curveball more and got through it, which speaks to the depth and quality of the entire arsenal here. Yamamoto carries a bit of injury risk after missing much of his rookie season with a shoulder injury, but he sure looks like a top-12 SP when healthy. | | Dylan Cease, Padres @TOR: 7 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Cease has turned his season around by just spamming sliders. He hasn't had a start with more fastballs than sliders thrown since April 13, and he's consistently been right around 50% or higher with his usage of that pitch lately. It's a great pitch, though I do think it's fair to wonder whether he's grown too reliant on it – does he have a counter if hitters figure out how to handle the slider? It's probably not a big concern, especially because at least some shakiness has always been the price of doing business with Cease. I'm viewing him as a must-start pitcher moving forward. Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays vs. SD: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Bassitt hit a snag around the end of April, allowing 15 runs over a four-start stretch, but he's pulled out of it nicely, with one run allowed over his past two starts. The nice thing is, the strikeouts have been pretty solid throughout for Bassitt, and that makes his hot start a little easier to buy into – his 24.9% strikeout rate is his best since 2021. Under the hood, there isn't a ton different about Bassitt, whose velocity is actually down a tick from last season, so I'm not sure I expect him to maintain that strikeout rate or low-3.00s ERA, but I do think he'll continue to be better than he was in 2023, at least. | | Clay Holmes, Mets @BOS: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – I still can't really figure out Holmes. I think he's pretty good, but probably not much more than that – a top-60 pitcher, but probably not a top-40 one. He's holding his own as a starter, but his control can still be pretty shaky, and I do wonder how he's going to hold up to his first season as a full-time starter in years as the innings continue to pile up. But I'm also not sure anyone is likely to give you enough to make it worth calling him a "sell-high," so I think you're just holding him. | | Jameson Taillon, Cubs @MIA: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – Taillon is usually just about as good as his next matchup, and it's no real surprise that he was good in this one. And he gets the Rockies and Reds next week, both in Chicago, so I expect him to be pretty good next week too. Whether you should hang on to him beyond that is, of course, dependent on his upcoming matchups. | | Walker Buehler, Red Sox vs. NYM: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – Buehler was tossed for arguing balls and strikes in the third inning of this one, which is frustrating because he actually looked pretty good. His velocity was up, so we'll keep an eye on this one in his next outing to see if there's anything to build on here. | | Nick Martinez, Reds @PIT – 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – Martinez has gotten back to last year's strike-throwing ways, and it's helped him put together five straight quality starts. It's been a run of pretty favorable matchups too, of course, which is probably the most relevant factor in his success. He gets the Royals and Cubs next week, which probably makes Martinez more of a H2H pick, with just fringe appeal in Roto leagues. | | Bailey Falter, Pirates vs. CIN: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – Falter's ERA for the season is now down to 3.50, and his xERA is right in that same range (3.71 entering Tuesday), so it's not like this is necessarily a fluke. He's earning his solid results of late by generating a lot of weak contact. But his strikeout and walk rates remain mediocre overall, which makes it hard to buy in. I don't hate his next matchup against the Pirates, though a second start in San Diego next week is a little worrisome, so I'm not looking at Falter as a high-priority pickup at this point. | | Brandon Walter, Astros @TB: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Walter has a deep pitch mix and strong control, and we've seen guys like Seth Lugo and Bassitt find success with that combination. But he's also a 28-year-old with almost no MLB experience to his name and pretty mediocre numbers at Triple-A, so I'm finding it hard to get excited about this one. It's not even clear if he's going to remain in the rotation moving forward, though if he does, his next start seems likely to come next week against the Athletics. That's not a bad matchup (especially away from Sacramento), but with just six whiffs on 80 pitches in this one, I don't think Walter showed enough upside to be worth chasing. | | Adrian Houser, White Sox vs. SEA: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – On the one hand, Houser shut down a pretty good offense in this one, and he did it while throwing both a new cutter and throwing harder than he has since 2019 when he was a pretty useful Fantasy option. On the other hand, he had a 5.03 ERA with the Rangers Triple-A team before the White Sox signed him. Not to oversimplify things too much, but if there were a real reason to get excited about Houser, he probably wouldn't have had to sign with the White Sox in mid-May, right? | | News and notes | | Dave Roberts said Shohei Ohtani remains without a date to begin facing hitters. He's been working some of his breaking balls into his flat-ground throwing sessions but still seems like he's a long way from returning as a pitcher. I'm still more or less expecting nothing from Ohtani as a pitcher this season. | | Roberts also said that Tyler Glasnow could throw a bullpen later this week. He's out with a shoulder injury but seems to be making decent progress for a June return. | | Mike Trout told reporters that he won't require a minor league rehab assignment before being activated from the IL. We could see him back by next week if he clears the next step, which is running the bases at full speed. | | Bryce Miller threw a bullpen on Tuesday, his first time since going on the IL with elbow inflammation. | | Dylan Crews left early Tuesday with back/side tightness. He will have an MRI taken, and with Hassell getting called up, I'm worried we're going to see Crews go on the IL. | | Ian Happ was activated and back in the leadoff spot for the Cubs. As expected, Moises Ballesteros was optioned back to Triple-A. | | Speaking of the Cubs, they officially placed Porter Hodge on the IL with his oblique injury. | | Jacob Wilson left Tuesday after getting hit by a pitch on his left forearm. | | Colton Cowser will begin a rehab assignment at High-A on Wednesday. He's been out since late March with a fractured left thumb. | | Parker Meadows began a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Tuesday. | | Meadows has been out since spring training with a nerve issue in his right arm. I would rather stash Meadows than Cowser, for what it's worth. | | Max Scherzer threw a 33-pitch bullpen on Tuesday. His previous two scheduled sessions were scrapped due to back tightness, so hopefully he doesn't have any issues after this one. | | Kristian Campbell is not close to playing first base in games. He's been in a deep slump lately, so forcing him into a new position might just be asking too much of the rookie. | | The Rangers placed reliever, Chris Martin, on the IL with right shoulder fatigue, retroactive to May 19. | | The Athletics placed JT Ginn back on the IL with a right quad strain. | | | | | | | | Golazo Network | | UEFA Europa League Final | Watch LIVE global soccer coverage on the CBS Sports Golazo Network, available FOR FREE on the CBS Sports App, Pluto TV and streaming on Paramount+.
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