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| Tuesday, November 12, 2024 |
| Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| For the second time in 11 months, the Chicago Bears have fired their offensive coordinator. Back in January, they fired Luke Getsy so that they could handpick a coordinator to work with Caleb Williams, but like everything in Chicago, that plan has fallen apart. The Bears hired Shane Waldron to replace Getsy, and he's now out of a job after being fired Tuesday. |
| In a twist of irony, Waldron was the second offensive coordinator fired in the NFL this year behind only Getsy, who was fired by his new team (the Raiders) less than 10 days ago. |
| Anyway, the moral of the story here is that the Bears continue to be bad at developing quarterbacks. I could probably write a book on why that is, but we don't have time for a book, because we have to get to today's newsletter. We'll be breaking down the Dolphins' Monday night win, plus revealing Prisco's latest Power Rankings. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends and neighbors to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Dolphins beat Rams: Grades and notes from Miami's Monday night win |
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| With the Dolphins sitting at 2-6 heading into Monday night, they needed a win in the worst kind of way and they got it by dominating the Rams in a 23-15 win. Although the scoreboard says this was close, the Dolphins were in control of the game for all four quarters. |
| Here are our grades from the game: |
| DOLPHINS GRADE: B+ |
| The Dolphins had their season hanging in the balance Monday and played like it. The defense had arguably its best performance of the season. The Dolphins got constant pressure on Matthew Stafford, which threw the Rams' offense out of sync. Calais Campbell, who came up with two batted passes, led a pass rush that sacked Stafford four times. The Dolphins' high-powered offense got off to a hot start with a TD on the opening drive, but things slowed down after that. Tua Tagovailoa turned the ball over twice, but he made up for that with an impressive second half where he was nearly perfect, going 11 of 13 for 120 yards and a touchdown. At 3-6, the Dolphins obviously aren't in a great spot, but this win gave them a fighting chance to get back in the playoff race now that they're only 1.5 games out of the final wild-card spot in the AFC. |
| Dolphins note |
| So you're saying there's a chance. The Dolphins were 2-6 going into this game and they took their first step toward possibly getting to the playoffs by beating the Rams. If the Dolphins can somehow pull off a miracle and get to the postseason, they'd become just the fourth team in NFL history to make the playoffs after starting 2-6, joining the 1970 Bengals, 2020 Commanders and 2022 Jaguars. |
| RAMS GRADE: B+ |
| The Rams (4-5) got dominated on both sides of the ball. The offense seemed out of sync for most of the night, especially on third down with the Rams only converting 2 of 11 opportunities. Although the offense did eventually have some success, it sputtered in the red zone, coming up with zero touchdowns on two trips inside of Miami's 20 (All 15 of the Rams' points came on field goals). Matthew Stafford got his favorite receivers involved (Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp), but the Rams couldn't come up with a big play when they needed it. Defensively, the Rams came up with several big plays, but they couldn't stop the Dolphins on third down. Miami converted both a third-and-13 and a third-and-19 in the game. The Rams simply got outplayed and if they look this sloppy going forward, they're not going to be in the NFC playoff race for very long. |
| Rams notes |
| Rams kept out of end zone. Matthew Stafford has been in the NFL since 2009 and this game marked just the third time in 109 home starts that his team didn't score a touchdown. All 15 of the Rams' points came from Joshua Karty, who hit 5 of 6 field goals in the game. This game also marked just the second time the Rams didn't score a touchdown at home under Sean McVay, who was hired in 2017. Wilting under the lights. Stafford has a career prime-time record of 12-21 and his .361 winning percentage is the worst by any QB since 2000 who has at least 30 prime-time starts. Only Kirk Cousins (.412) and Derek Carr (.433) are even in the same neighborhood as Stafford. |
| Finally, you can check out our full takeaways from the game here. |
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| 2. Prisco's Week 11 Power Rankings: Steelers crack the top five |
| This Sunday could go down as the biggest Sunday of the regular season, and that's because we have two games that will feature teams from Prisco's top five playing each other. Not only do we have Chiefs vs. Bills, but the Steelers cracked Prisco's top five this week, which means the Ravens-Steelers game will also feature a pair of top-five teams. |
| With that in mind, let's check out Prisco's top five: |
| Chiefs (Same as last week)Lions (Same as last week)Bills (Same as last week)Ravens (Up one spot from last week)Steelers (Up one spot from last week) |
| I'm not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since Prisco's last Power Rankings: |
The biggest jump this week went to the Eagles, but it wasn't a big jump at all. After destroying the Cowboys 34-6 in Week 10, Prisco moved Philadelphia up three spots from ninth to sixth. If the Eagles beat the Commanders on Thursday, they'll almost certainly crack Prisco's top five next week.The biggest jump in the AFC went to the Dolphins, who also moved up three spots. Thanks to their Monday win over the Rams, the Dolphins are now in the top 20 as they made the jump from 23rd to 20th. The biggest tumble this week went to the Washington Commanders. Prisco must hate the Commanders, because that's the only way to explain why he would drop them SIX spots following a close loss to the Steelers. After that one-point setback, Prisco dropped Washington from fourth to 10th. Finally, let's get the bottom of the Power Rankings. The Raiders were ranked dead last heading into Week 10 and nothing has changed going into Week 11. For the second straight week, the Raiders are the worst team in the NFL, according to Prisco.
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| If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 11 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything. |
| 3. NFL likely headed to Australia |
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| If you read this newsletter on Monday, you got a taste of what the international schedule is going to look like next year. Well, now we've got more and it's coming from CBS Sports NFL Insider Jonathan Jones. |
| Here's a breakdown of Jones' reporting: |
| NFL eyeing Australia for a game and possibly the Pro Bowl. The NFL will likely be putting a game in Australia and it could happen as soon as the 2026 season with the game likely being played in Sydney or Melbourne. The NFL is also considering the possibility of moving the Pro Bowl Down Under. Why the NFL likes Australia. From Jones: "Australia entices the NFL for several reasons. There is a vibrant sports scene there, and there's no language barrier. It is distinct from the European expansion the league has endeavored, and no other major American sports league has penetrated the market."Looking at the 2025 international schedule. The NFL will likely be playing eight international games in 2025, which is up from the five that were played this year. In 2025, the league will play games in London, Spain, Brazil, Germany, Mexico and Ireland. The NFL has also conducted site surveys in Abu Dhabi, Paris, Barcelona, Rome and Dublin, so those cities could be hosting a game in the near future. |
| You can check out Jones' full story on the NFL's international future here. |
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| 4. NFL teams with the most deceiving records |
| NFL coaching legend Bill Parcells once said that "you are what your record says you are." Well, we don't necessarily agree with that here, and to prove it, Cody Benjamin decided to take a look at three teams that have a deceiving record. |
| Let's take a look at his list: |
| Vikings (7-2). "Brian Flores' defense remains opportunistic, and Justin Jefferson always gives you a chance, but their most pleasant surprise, Sam Darnold, is gradually regressing, now leading the NFL with 13 turnovers."49ers (5-4). "Now Christian McCaffrey is back in the fold, and rookie wideout Ricky Pearsall is settling in. They may not carry the same "juggernaut" label that's rightly followed them in recent years, but to count them out as an NFC force would be perilously foolish." Bengals (4-6). "Their Week 10 loss to the Ravens was a microcosm of their season: MVP-level fireworks between Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, but no steady defense to back them up. Five of their six losses have been one-score games, and five of those six came against legitimate contenders, including the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs. That actually bodes well for their ability to make up ground down the stretch, as their offense is really rounding into form, with 30+ points in five of their last eight." |
| If you want to check out Cody's full story, you can do that here. |
| 5. Breech's Week 11 NFL picks: Bills end Chiefs' undefeated season |
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| Every Tuesday, I unveil three of my weekly picks here in the newsletter and then I beg you to click over to check out all of my picks. |
| Anyway, let's get to this week's trio of picks: |
| Commanders (7-3) at Eagles (7-2): The Commanders can't stop the run and the Eagles have one of the best running backs in that NFL. That seems like something that will definitely favor Philadelphia in this game. PICK: Eagles 27-24 over CommandersChiefs (9-0) at Bills (8-2): Although the Bills can't seem to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, that hasn't been the case in the regular season. This will mark the fourth straight year that the Bills have had to play a regular-season game against the Chiefs: They won in 2021, they won in 2022, they won in 2023 and I feel like they're going to also win in 2024. In the three prior wins, Josh Allen has averaged 292.3 passing yards per game and he's thrown nine touchdown passes compared to just one interception. Basically, he turns into Superman and I can't pick against Superman. PICK: Bills 27-24 over ChiefsBengals (4-6) at Chargers (6-3): There are definitely better games on the schedule this week, but to me, this is the most fascinating game. The Bengals are going to be desperate to keep their playoff hopes alive and they're in a good spot this week, because if you can throw the ball on the Chargers, you can beat them. The Chargers are 5-1 this season when they hold their opponent to 225 passing yards or less, but 1-2 when their opponent throws for 226 yards or more. I'll say Joe Burrow has a big game because he seems to have one every week. PICK: Bengals 27-20 over Chargers |
| If you want to check out the rest of my picks for Week 11, be sure to click here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Bears fire their offensive coordinator |
| It was a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Bears dump Shane Waldron after just nine games. When the Bears take the field this week against the Packers, they're going to have a new offensive coordinator. Thomas Brown was given the job on Tuesday after the firing of Shane Waldron. The Bears ranked 30th in yards per game, 31st in third-down conversions and 31st in sacks allowed. Basically, nothing was working. If you're wondering how bad things had gotten: They've gone 23 straight drives without scored a touchdown and Caleb Williams hasn't thrown a TD pass since Week 6. It will now be Brown's job to see if he can get things turned around. For more on this firing, you can check out our full story here. Steelers sign former All-Pro returner. The Steelers made an interesting signing on Tuesday with the addition of former All-Pro and Pro Bowl returner Jamal Agnew to their practice squad. Agnew has scored a total of six return touchdowns in his career with four coming on punts and two coming on kickoffs. You can read more about his signing here. Seahawks waive their leading tackle. In a surprising move, the Seahawks waived linebacker Tyrel Dodson on Monday. The move was a shocker because Dodson had started in every game this season and was the team's leading tackler. You can read more about Seattle's decision here.
Dak Prescott definitely done for the season. The Cowboys QB was hoping to get a second opinion on his injured hamstring that might allow him to return at some point this year, but that won't be happening. Jerry Jones said on Tuesday that Prescott will be undergoing surgery on the hamstring tomorrow in a move that will definitely end his season. You can read more about Dak's injury here . |
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