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| Friday, July 12, 2024 |
| It's Steelers Day! |
| Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my base line team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (T-20th) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 20.3 (30th) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 21.1 (7th) |
| Notable coaching changes: |
| Arthur Smith takes over as offensive coordinator |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| Drafted tackle Troy Fauntanu in Round 1, center Zach Frazier in Round 2, and guard Mason McCormick in Round 4 |
| Pittsburgh's line was a problem just 2-3 seasons ago, but the Steelers have made it a priority to improve this unit. That effort was reflected in a rise to 11th in PFF's run blocking grade, and the run is clearly going to be the identity of this offense in 2024. |
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| Left guard Isaac Seumalo was Pittsburgh's highest-graded blocker in his first year with the team. Both Pittsburgh guards ranked top-six in yards before contact per rush on attempts to their direction in 2023, which is notable considering the Steelers ranked only 24th as a team on rushes to any direction. Pittsburgh has invested a Round 1 pick into the tackle spot in each of the past two seasons, so the guards may have some quality help soon if these youngsters are ready to contribute. |
| The Steelers averaged 1.57 yards before contact on inside zone attempts, up from 1.17 on all other attempts. That's not a surprise, given the strong guard play. And it's a strength that we may see this team lean into with Arthur Smith at OC in 2024. |
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| After digging into Smith's specific zone running splits a bit more, I found a glimmer of hope for Warren! |
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| What can we expect from this offense from a design standpoint? |
| The league average yards per attempt rate in 2023 was 7.0. The career rate for Arthur Smith's quarterbacks (Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, etc) is 7.6 yards. |
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| Russell Wilson's career average is 7.7. Wilson's 6.9-yard rate in 2023 marked his first season with a rate below seven yards. I'm projecting Wilson to bounce back slightly, with a 7.1-yard average in 2024. |
| What I have the toughest time deciding on is what type of passing touchdown rate I want to project this offense for. The league average in 2023 was 4.1%. Arthur Smith's QB average is 4.3%. Wilson's career rate is 5.9%, and he was at 5.8% in 2023. Russ had just a 3.3% rate in 2022, though. He's been below 4% twice in his career. |
| Another way to consider the touchdown proposition -- 58% of all touchdowns came through the air in 2023. Arthur Smith teams have produced a 53% rate and passed the ball just 45% of the time when in the red zone. The league average red zone pass rate in 2023 was 49%. In 2023, only 42% of Pittsburgh's total touchdowns came via passing TDs, the lowest rate in the NFL. In Mike Tomlin's coaching career, when Ben Roethlisberger was not on the field, his Steelers teams have produced just a 39% rate -- even lower than the league-low rate posted in 2023! |
| As Heath Cummings and I were comparing team-level projections for 2024, the Steelers stood out as our biggest difference. |
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| The Patriots and Giants are the only teams that project fewer passing scores than Pittsburgh. Vegas look-ahead lines have the Steelers finishing 24th in points, and I projected 49% of their touchdowns to come via passing scores. To me, the combination of Tomlin and Arty as the offensive brain trust is likely to be too much to overcome for even the great Mr. Unlimited in his age-36 season. It sure feels like all of Pittsburgh's offseason moves have suggested that this team wants to establish the run. |
| The Steelers were the only team with a situation-neutral (score within six points) pass rate below 50% in 2023. Just above Pittsburgh (49%) at 31st, we find Arty's tortured Atlanta Falcons (50%) team. |
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| Arthur Smith catches a lot of flak in the Fantasy streets, but the man does design a pretty efficient offense. How else could he consistently rank ahead of the league average in yards per attempt with a QB group highlighted by Ryan Tannehill? |
| There are two cheat codes for boosting pass-game efficiency, and Smith leans heavily into both. |
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| Look, a list of all the most efficient passers and Desmond Ridder! |
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| Particularly, play-action passing is almost certainly going to be a huge part of Pittsburgh's run-first offense. |
| Is George Pickens ready to step up as a WR1? |
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| Since entering the league, Pickens has averaged 15.5 yards per play action target, up from a WR positional league-wide average of 9.9. The only receivers with 20+ play action targets and a higher per-target average are Khalif Raymond (18.8) and Amari Cooper (15.7). |
| Pittsburgh has ranked bottom-five in play action rate in each of his two years as a pro. Arthur Smith's offense could be huge for Pickens. |
| Displayed below is a target-hogging league leaderboard -- the receivers included in that list accounted for the highest percentage of team targets while on the field. Pickens posted a 23% rate in 2023, and if filtered to only include plays without Diontae Johnson on the field, his rate rises to 27.8%. |
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| Here are the rates for Arthur Smith's top WR by season: |
2023 - 26.6% (Year 2 Drake London)
2022 - 34.1% (Rookie Drake London)
2021 - 29.1% (Calvin Ridley's depression year)
2020 - 29.3% (Year 2 A.J. Brown)
2019 - 27.3% (Rookie A.J. Brown) |
| Smith's offenses have concentrated target shares on one primary WR in the past. And while Pickens may not be the prototypical high-volume WR1, he has given us some evidence of being able to operate as an offense's top target. |
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| For a larger sample size, you can view his career per-route data on routes run without Diontae Johnson on the field. |
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| A lot of you are probably screaming, "but these are all rate stats!" Fair. Drake London hasn't done much with his huge target shares, as the overall pie that he's getting a slice out of is quite small. What type of receiving volume can we actually project Pickens for in this offensive environment? |
| Well, as a quick aside -- Pickens has been much more efficient than London at converting his opportunities into receiving production. |
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| As for his 2024 projection, a 23% target share gets Pickens to 119 targets. There's potential for him to push much higher than 23% if healthy for 17 games. He had a 29% target share in one month of football without Diontae Johnson last year. Without getting too deep into the specifics of his projection -- Pickens averaged 1.98 PPR points per target as a rookie. His rate was 1.97 in Year 2. Providing Pickens with a 1.95 per target rate -- lower than A.J. Brown (2.45) and Corey Davis (1.96) in Smith's offense but higher than London (1.55) -- gets Pickens to a total of 232 projected points. That total would have ranked 16th at the WR position in 2023. |
| Currently, CBS average draft position has 24 receivers leaving the board before Pickens. Underdog Fantasy ADP has Pickens going even later, as the WR28. |
| Remember Pat Freiermuth? |
| The only tight ends who scored more PPR points than Pat Freiermuth did across the 2021-22 seasons were Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, Dalton Schultz, and Dallas Goedert. Those were his first two seasons in the NFL. He's being drafted as the TE18 on CBS and TE14 on Underdog Fantasy. |
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| Isaiah Likely -- a backup tight end -- has a higher CBS ADP than Pat Friermuth. |
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Maybe Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are both Fantasy values?
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| The Steelers have the highest rush attempt total and seventh-highest rushing touchdown number in my projections. In 2023, Pittsburgh finished ninth in rush attempts and 11th in rushing touchdowns. Warren finished as the RB26 in Fantasy, while Harris was the RB27 (full PPR). |
| Current average draft position: |
CBS Sports - Harris (RB21), Warren (RB37 - lol)
Underdog Fantasy - Harris (RB21), Warren (RB24) |
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| You may be surprised how many of the Steelers players that I view as value buys in 2024. I even think that Russell Wilson is fine if you decide to punt your QB2 spot in a Superflex league. No one wants to draft Wilson, he's free even in a format where quarterbacks are coveted. No one wants to click on the name of any of these Steelers players, that's the thing. Do you want to voluntarily subject yourself to Arthur Smith shenanigans again? Do you want to bet on Russell Wilson as a 36-year-old? Nobody, with the exception of my sick colleague Heath Cummings, wants to select Steelers players in 2024! We've seen enough from Arthur Smith. |
| I'm actually kinda in, though! Betting on these players at depressed price tags feels way different than using a Round 1 pick on Bijan Robinson last year. The draft cost for these players is way different than it has been for Drake London and Kyle Pitts. At these prices, I absolutely believe that some or potentially even most of the core group of skill position players for Pittsburgh may prove to be Fantasy values. |
| I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview during the month of July! Monday, we will be covering the Cincinnati Bengals. If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way. |
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