Longstop dates - a critical component in corporate finance, as deals simply cannot be open-ended forever. At some point, the parties either need to have gotten the deal across the line, or they must walk away.
It becomes so much more interesting than that in practice, as longstop dates give the parties an opportunity to get out of a deal no matter how close it is to being concluded. Even if there's just one condition left, the deal can fall over. Sometimes, this becomes a get-out-of-jail card for one of the parties, particularly where there's been a significant change in circumstances.
Thanks to the hearing at the Competition Tribunal falling after the longstop date for the deal, Sun International has been able to walk away from the Peermont acquisition. The official line is that the parties mutually agreed to end the deal, but I cannot imagine why the sellers would've wanted that outcome. Casino assets are getting worse by the day, hence why I think Sun International got lucky here. The market's positive reaction to the news supports my thesis here.
At the other end of the luck spectrum, we find Bytes shareholders and a 30% drop in that share price. This catastrophic response was driven by something as tame as an AGM update regarding flat earnings for the first half of the year. This is the problem with growth stocks - they are held to impossibly high standards by the market.
In other news, KAP's subsidiary Safripol has lodged a complaint against Sasol with the Competition Commission, Castleview is raising R200 million from its controlling shareholders, and finally, Goldrush has released a statement in response to all the noise in the market around the award of the National Lottery Licence.
Along with numerous Nibbles covering the smaller stories, you can get these insights in today's Ghost Bites at this link>>>
Oil. Tariffs. The South African outlook. These are the macro concepts that drive so many of the stock-specific moves that we see in the market. I firmly believe that you ignore the macro at your peril. A great example of how to stay on top of things is the latest No Ordinary Wednesday podcast, brought to you by Investec. Jeremy Maggs speaks with Annabel Bishop and Phil Shaw in this show>>>
The latest Magic Markets podcast gave us an opportunity to dig into insights from some of the companies we've covered on Magic Markets Premium. To learn more about Berkshire Hathaway, BAE Systems, 3M, Waste Management and Alibaba, click here>>>
In case you missed the first webinar, there's still time to sign up for Jaltech's Section 12B investment webinar at 12pm today. Offering up to a 235% tax deduction, this is an interesting way to reduce your tax liability.
Have a great day! |
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SATRIX: The liquidity advantage - why ETFs should play a bigger role in institutional asset allocation |
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| | Institutional investors are increasingly incorporating Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) into their portfolios, attracted by their cost efficiency, transparency, and liquidity. As the investment landscape becomes more complex and cost-sensitive, ETFs are proving to be a powerful tool for modern portfolio management.
Duma Mxenge explores their growing role in institutional investing, advantages over traditional investment vehicles, and their impact on market liquidity and institutional strategy.
Enjoy this piece at this link>>> |
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GHOST WRAP: The JSE Winners' Club in 2025 |
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| | At the halfway mark in 2025, we've lived through some huge geopolitical shifts. The world's gaze has shifted beyond just the US market.
Many investors choose to stick with what they know in times like these. This means homegrown favourites on the JSE.
But which stocks have been the big winners thus far this year, and what do they have in common?
Enjoy it here>>> |
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PODCAST: Capital Markets in South Africa - the Think Big South Africa Competition |
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PSG Financial Services is the proud sponsor of the Think Big South Africa competition, in collaboration with Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA).
PSG wants to encourage South Africans to get involved in their country at the highest level, bringing forward policy ideas and constructive solutions to drive conversations and real change in our country. PSG CEO Francois Gouws joined me to explain why they are such strong supporters of this initiative.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | Bytes Technology shed nearly a third of its value based on the AGM update. Sun International walks away from the Peermont deal. KAP is fighting with Sasol over ethylene supply. Goldrush responds to the noise around the National Lottery Licence. Castleview raises R200m. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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Unlock the Stock - Tharisa |
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In the 56th edition of Unlock the Stock, Tharisa returned to the platform to talk through their recent numbers and strategy in the PGM and chrome market. The recording of the management presentation and interactive Q&A is available at this link>>> |
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DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - The catch that's catching up with us |
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Beneath the waves, a silent collapse is underway. As fish stocks dwindle, so do the jobs, meals and communities built around them. But it’s not too late for us to make a meaningful change. Dominique Olivier explains how to balance conservation with people whose livelihoods depend on the ocean. Read it here>>> |
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INVESTEC PODCAST: No Ordinary Wednesday - tensions, tariffs and the fragile global economy |
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| | At the midpoint of 2025, the global economy stands at a precarious intersection of cooling inflation on one side and rising geopolitical tensions on the other. In this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs speaks with Investec Chief Economists Annabel Bishop (South Africa) and Phil Shaw (UK) about the shocks and signals shaping markets. Enjoy it here>>> |
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International Business Snippet: |
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The reasons why I avoid being long or short Tesla were on full display yesterday. It's still a meme stock, with an after-hours rally of 5% despite a 14% decline in vehicle deliveries. The general feeling in the market is that even though the numbers sucked, they didn't suck as badly as people feared they might. This would explain the rally, but it certainly doesn't explain the overall market value of Tesla in the context of how the underlying business is actually doing.
It's not just the risks in China that are problematic. Tesla is also vulnerable to Trump's general view on EVs, with the collapsed bromance between Trump and Musk only leading to greater risk of a negative impact on renewable energy and EV assets from changes to how the US fiscus spends its vast amount of money.
This week, we are covering PepsiCo and all its problems that have led to massive recent underperformance vs. Coca-Cola. The entire research library in Magic Markets Premium is available for just R99/month. Invest in yourself and give it a try! |
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Magic Markets: Insights from five global companies |
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| | In this episode of Magic Markets, Mohammed Nalla and The Finance Ghost decided to each choose three companies from the recent research in Magic Market Premium, with the goal being to discuss some of the most interesting insights that came out of each one.
Both chose Berkshire Hathaway (predictably), so there were actually only five companies to discuss. Luckily, this left more than enough meat on the table. This podcast highlights some of the best insights from research into Berkshire Hathaway, BAE Systems, 3M, Waste Management and Alibaba.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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Macroeconomic indicators and macro update |
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US stock futures are steady following record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq last night, supported by a new US-Vietnam trade deal. European futures are slightly higher, while Asian markets show mixed but generally positive movement ahead of key US jobs data.
President Trump announced the US will impose a 20% tariff on all Vietnamese imports, significantly lower than the previously threatened 46%, though still higher than past rates. Meanwhile, trade talks with Japan remain stalled with little progress.
The US dollar has given up most of its gains from yesterday after optimism over the US-Vietnam trade agreement, as investors now focus on the upcoming US payroll report to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next moves.
Market attention is on the US Labour Department’s June employment report, due Thursday before the July 4 holiday, especially after private payrolls unexpectedly declined for the first time in over two years.
Gold prices have eased slightly after gains yesterday.
Oil prices rebounded yesterday but have softened this morning, remaining vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. Middle East supply concerns persist but are somewhat eased by a ceasefire and rising US inventories.
Despite pulling back from its best levels reached yesterday, the South African rand remains firm, with expectations of a flat to modestly higher open for the JSE All-Share Index.
This update is provided by Shaun Murison. Connect with him on LinkedIn here.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R17.54/$ | US 10yr 4.26% | Gold $3,359/oz | Platinum $1,422/oz | Brent Crude $68.46 |
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