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| Monday, February 19, 2024 |
| While the final reporting date for Spring Training is this Tuesday, most players have made their way to either Arizona or Florida for camp across the leagues, and you know what that means: It's time for bad news! |
| Sorry, I don't want to be negative. Spring is supposed to be a time for boundless optimism, but I live in New York City, and I'm looking out my window at a bunch of half-melted, mostly-grey snow, and I'm wearing wool socks and sitting next to my space heater, and it sure doesn't feel like spring. And I sure don't feel super optimistic. |
| And, look, the days after players start to report for spring training is also, inevitably, when we find out about the injuries that have happened over the past few months. We got a stark reminder of that with the Orioles, who shared bad news about Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Gunnar Henderson in about a five-minute span last week. |
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| In today's newsletter, I've gone through the news reports to identify 12 stories you need to know about from around the league. For the most part, what you're about to read shouldn't fundamentally change how you view any given player, but it's all stuff you need to know about. |
| And, I should point out: It's not all bad news! In fact, of the 12 items I've written about, I'd say fewer than half qualify as bad news. We've got a few injuries to talk about, sure. But we've also got guys in the best shape of their lives(!). And, among stuff that might actually matter, we've got positive news on some guys coming back from injuries, as well as stories about new pitches, new positions, and new lineup spots. |
| There's plenty to get excited about in today's newsletter, but before we get to that: I want to answer some of your questions in an edition of the FBT Newsletter later this week, and every week after that, too. What I need from you is to send your questions to FantasyBaseball@CBSi.com with the subject line "#AskFBT" to be included. Got keeper questions? Sure, I'll answer those! Wondering why we aren't higher on a specific player? I'll tell you. Just send your questions in to be answered, either in a future edition of the newsletter or an episode of the FBT podcast! |
| And now, here's what you need to know about from the first weekend of Spring Training: |
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| 1. The Orioles are dealing with a ton of injuries right now |
| I wrote about the injuries befalling the Orioles Friday, so you can get a more in-depth look at my thoughts here. But, let's start with the biggest name among the Orioles injuries: Gunnar Henderson, who is dealing with an oblique injury that has his spring on a delayed start. Given that Henderson has nothing to prove as far as his spot on the roster goes and six weeks to get healthy for the start of the regular season, I'm not moved to drop him in my rankings … yet. If we get to March and he's not swinging a bat, or anything, I will revise. |
| The other news is definitely not as easy to write off. Kyle Bradish has a UCL sprain in his pitching elbow, and he had a PRP injection and has been shut down from throwing. He's probably going to start the season on the IL, and even a best-case scenario at this point might see him making his season debut in May. I dropped Bradish down to around 70 in my SP rankings, though if we get positive reports as he starts throwing again and has follow-up imaging, I reserve the right to move him back up a bit. But definitely not to where he was before this injury. It's simply too big of a red flag. |
| And then there's John Means, who apparently hasn't suffered any kind of setback with his elbow, but seems unlikely to be part of the Opening Day rotation anyway. I still think he's an interesting late-round sleeper – his biggest issue in the past has been homers, and we haven't seen him with the new Camden Yards dimensions, really. But he'll need to start throwing before you can consider drafting him outside of 15-team leagues. |
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| 2. Hunter Greene is working on multiple pitches |
| Greene throws his fastball and slider around 95% of the time in the majors, and despite his incredible velocity, that fastball has been surprisingly hittable. He's long been a candidate to get in the lab and develop a third pitch, and it sounds like he's got two candidates this spring: A splitter and a curveball. The interesting thing about Green is, despite being just a fastball-slider pitcher so far in his career, he's actually fared worse against right-handed hitters, who have an .811 OPS against him; lefties have a .711 mark in basically the same amount of innings. |
| Which is to say, while Greene would likely benefit from the addition of a reliable third pitch, I'm not sure the splitter is necessarily a panacea for him, since his biggest issue isn't overcoming platoon split problems. As PitcherList's Nick Pollack notes, the splitter tends to be a tough pitch to command, and Greene's issue isn't really with putting hitters away – it's with keeping the ball in the yard and avoiding walks. If the curveball gives him a pitch he can sneak in for strikes or generate ground balls with, that might be the most important thing he could add to the arsenal. |
| But the takeaway here is that Greene is tinkering. He knows he's not a finished product, and we want to see him putting in the work as much as anything. I'm not pushing him up my draft boards because of this, but it definitely gives us something to keep an eye on in the spring. He's a high-ceiling player whose current skill set should at least come with a ton of strikeouts and a roughly league-average ERA. Anything more than that is where it starts to get really exciting. |
| 3. Chris Paddack is aiming for around 140-160 innings |
| Paddack came back from Tommy John surgery and made a few relief appearances toward the end of last season with a big jump in velocity – up to 95.5 mph. If he can sustain that or anything close to it, I like him a lot as a sleeper for 2024, but managing his workload is going to require some flexibility on the Twins' part. |
| Paddack told reporters Sunday his goal is to throw 140-160 innings. He hasn't had any specific conversations with the Twins about an innings limit – and Twins president Derek Falvey told Jon Morosi there is no specific limit in mind – but with Paddack having thrown just 27.1 innings the past two seasons, it seems fair to assume he'll be limited in some way. Paddack is cheap enough that it shouldn't impact how you view him – his 381.5 ADP is pretty much all upside, but it's something to keep in mind. |
| 4. Shane Baz might not pitch until the summer |
| Baz is already throwing in the bullpen at the Rays complex, but it might be a while until we see him actually pitching in games. The former first-rounder is coming back from Tommy John surgery back in September of 2022, and he acknowledged this weekend he's probably going to have "a little delayed start" as the team tries to manage his innings. |
| "I think the goal is to face hitters towards the end of camp, go on some sort of rehab assignment at some point," Baz told the Tampa Bay Times. "But I am just trying to take it slow right now. We haven't really gotten too far into that. It's going to be nice. I'll just take it one day at a time thing." |
| Baz has a 4.02 career ERA in 40.1 innings with the Rays, with 48 strikeouts, and has dominated in the minors, with 133 strikeouts in 91.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. However, he has also never thrown more than 92 innings in a season, and it might be asking a lot for him to even get to 100 this season. They might be really good innings, but unless you have an IL spot you can stash Baz in to open the season, you might just have to skip over him in drafts. |
| 5. Jung Hoo Lee is likely to hit leadoff |
| A lot can change between now and Opening Day, especially for a player with no MLB experience. But the plan right now is for Lee to bat leadoff for the Giants . He signed a six-year, $113 million deal with the Giants and will be the team's everyday center fielder. However, with career-highs of just 23 homers and 13 steals in Korea, the 25-year-old isn't being viewed as much of a Fantasy contributor right now – his ADP in NFBC leagues is just 275.3. However, if he's hitting at the top of the lineup, that could certainly change things – a helpful batting average and 95 runs is useful even if it doesn't come with much speed or power. He's a fine fifth outfielder for Fantasy. |
| 6. Josh Jung is dealing with a calf strain |
| Jung suffered the injury while fielding grounders early in camp and is expected to miss around three weeks. We're early enough in the spring that it shouldn't change how you view Jung, but any further delay could. Jung has struggled to stay healthy as a pro, missing significant time in three straight seasons – however, he still managed to hit .266/.315/.467 with 23 homers in 122 games despite a broken left thumb in August. He'll go off the board around 100th overall, and if there's any discount in the next few weeks, I may take it. |
| 7. Byron Buxton is fully healthy |
| I mean … you know … for now. I'll always get pushback when I recommend drafting Buxton, even when his price is absurdly low, as it is right now – his ADP is just 267.1 right now. But there is real reason to be optimistic right now, as Buxton had knee surgery last October to remove the plica in his knee, which will hopefully "alleviate the patellar tendinitis risk ." And before you write this off as spring optimism, remember back to last year, when Buxton wasn't even in the team's outfield plans; this year, the Twins are talking about him as their everyday center fielder. Buxton clearly wasn't right last season, playing DH exclusively, but he hit .258/.316/.558 over the prior four seasons, while averaging 26 homers and 11 steals per 100 games. If you got 100 games out of Buxton, that would be enough to more than justify his current price. |
| 8. Jordan Lawler may not have a lineup spot on Opening Day |
| There's a lot to like about the Diamondbacks' top prospect – and Scott White's No. 12 Fantasy prospect – but, "Has a path to immediate playing time" may not be part of that. Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters this weekend that Geraldo Perdomo "is going to be our starting shortstop," which really doesn't leave much room for interpretation, does it? Perdomo did make the All-Star game last year, but he also slumped badly down the stretch, leaving the hope that Lawlar could usurp him. That's not going to happen, and with Eugenio Suarez added this offseason to man third base and Ketel Marte at second, there isn't an obvious path to playing time for Lawlar right now. Life, uh, finds a way , but it looks like Lawlar is going back to Reno for some seasoning to open the season – and, in fairness, he's played just 16 games above Double-A, so it might not be the worst idea. But it makes it tough to use a draft pick on him. |
| 9. Xander Bogaerts is going to play second base |
| It probably isn't ideal that the Padres are already moving Bogaerts off shortstop with 10 years and $254.5 million left on his contract, but that's not our concern. Our concern is what this means for Bogaerts' value, and it's almost unquestionably a good thing. I think Bogaerts is probably being undervalued in Fantasy drafts as it is – he had 19 homers and 19 steals while hitting .285 last season and isn't even a top-100 pick – but adding second base eligibility only helps his cause. He's SS14 in ADP right now, but would be 2B10, just ahead of Andres Gimenez. I don't think it makes Bogaerts a screaming value, or anything – I prefer Ketel Marte at an even cheaper price – but he fits better in most team builds at 2B, and having the extra flexibility helps in-season when you're managing injuries and waiver-wire adds. It's a nice bonus. |
| 10. Jarren Duran is expected to bat leadoff |
| There's been a bit of talk lately about the Red Sox potentially considering trading Duran, but if he's on the team by Opening Day, manager Alex Cora told reporters this weekend, "That's my guy " for the leadoff spot. Duran hit .319/.356/.567 in 36 games out of the leadoff spot last season, and if he managed that kind of slash line, he'd be a first-round caliber player no matter what spot in the lineup he hit from. Assuming he won't hit quite that well, being in the leadoff spot is still obviously a good thing for his value. It means extra plate appearances and tons of run-scoring opportunities – he put up a 113-run pace in these games as a leadoff hitter, along with a 54-steal pace. There are still questions about whether the Red Sox will let him play everyday against lefties, but Duran probably has 100-run, 40-steal upside if he does, and he's not often drafted in a spot where that kind of upside is possible – his ADP is 175.93, as the No. 42 outfielder in NFBC leagues. |
| 11. Riley Green is expected to be ready for the start of spring games |
| Greene is coming back from Tommy John surgery in his non-throwing arm and told reporters he's expecting to be ready to play in games when the schedule starts later in the month. He was cleared to begin hitting in January and, while he still has a few boxes left to tick before he's cleared to play, that is expected to come. And, for whatever this means – probably not very much – Greene also said he added 10 pounds of muscle this offseason: "I feel a lot faster and more explosive at 220 [pounds] now than I did at 210 [last year]," he said. |
| The fact that Greene is coming back from Tommy John surgery is a bit of a concern – you saw how that same issue sapped Bryce Harper's power last season – but the fact that it's on his non-throwing arm is, I think, a point in his favor. Harper's injury was to his right elbow, which is the arm he leads with as a left-handed hitter – Greene throws and bats left, so his surgically repaired elbow is on the other side as a hitter. I think he could hit .290 with 25 homers and 15 steals this season, and I'm all-in on Greene for 2024 – he's the Hitter I Love, as I wrote in last week's newsletter. |
| 12. Sal Frelick is on a super-utility track |
| Frelick has been working with former MVP Dustin Pedroia to learn how to play the infield, with an eye on potentially mixing in at third and second base. You shouldn't look at this as a negative for Frelick – he's still projected to be one of the team's primary corner outfielders. But the Brewers have relative holes in the infield, and giving him another path to playing time isn't a bad thing. Outfield is probably the shallowest position in Fantasy, especially in five-outfielder leagues, so you'll probably still play him there even if he ends up eligible elsewhere. But having a bit of flexibility is always a nice thing. I like Frelick as a sleeper for 2024 after a minor-league career that saw him hit .314/.393/.451 with elite contact skills and enough speed to be helpful. |
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