This weekâs TV Issue of New York Magazine is packed with tons of goodies, including a cover story on Nathan Fielder, a must-read interview with veteran showrunner Larry Wilmore, and reporting from our sister publication The Verge about trouble in Techland at Netflix. But for this weekâs Buffering, the focus is on another story in the issue: Our second annual ranking of where all the major subscription streamers stand right now. Read on for my deep dive into how this yearâs numbers came together and my own thoughts on how the platforms are performing, as well as a look at what our TV critics think of the current streaming universe. As always, thanks for reading. âJoe Adalian |
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A year ago, New York culture editor Gazelle Emami asked me to come up with a semi-scientific way of ranking where all the major streaming platforms stood in the multi-billion dollar effort to dominate the new TV battleground. Unsurprisingly, Netflix emerged on topâ but it was a lot closer than I had expected. One Hollywood agent even told me he thought it quite possible Netflixâs tenure at the top would be short-lived: âOne year from now, this list may feel very different,â he said. That turned out to be an understatement. |
As you can read in the new issue of New York magazine (or in the online version of the story which posted earlier today on Vulture), Netflix has fallen all the way to No. 3 on the 2022 edition of our rankings, behind new champ HBO Max and runner-up Disney+. While the streaming giant still makes more original content and has more subscribers than anyone else, it lost ground in every other metric we used to evaluate platforms: |
â½ Critical buzz: Weâll see what happens when the Emmy nominations are announced next week, but Netflix now seems more interested in becoming a digital version of broadcast TV than trying to match HBO in the quality department. Thatâs not to say itâs gone full network TV mode, as some pundits suggest: Series such as Maid, Squid Game, I Think You Should Leave, and The Chair are among the many awards contenders on the platform. Plus, Netflix is still investing heavily in making Important Movies with Prestige Directors. Problem is, as on the TV side, thereâs a ton more competition than ever and many projects simply arenât producing the critical attention they might have gotten just a few years ago. Case in point: Despite spending nearly five years and hundreds of millions to become the first streamer to win a Best Picture Oscar, in the end Apple TV+ got there first with CODA. |
â½ Industry respect: Like last year, we surveyed a dozen-plus Hollywood insiders and asked how theyâd rank the streamers, and again, what a difference a year made. In 2021, more than half of our respondents listed Netflix as the hottest streamer in town; this year, just four out of 14 did so. Most ranked it third or lower, allowing HBO Max and Disney+ to finish No. 1 and 2 in this category. âYou canât count Netflix out: Their scale and ubiquitous subscriber base is still significant,â one studio exec who took our survey said. âBut they need a strategy that can help them compete with all new entrants.â (Next week in Buffering, Iâll once again reveal all of the juiciest things our insiders said about all the platforms.) |
â½ Momentum: Netflix finished dead last here, and if youâre even paying a little bit of attention to the news, you know why. Its subscriber growth stalled during the first quarter of the year and the company has now forecast it will lose upwards of two million members when second quarter results get reported later this month. And as a result of that negative growth, Wall Street has punished Netflix by destroying two-thirds of its valuation as a company. Instead of innovating, the streamer is now scrambling, playing catch-up by rolling out an ad-supported plan and cutting costs through hundreds of layoffs. Everything and everywhere the news has been bad for Netflix, and seemingly all at once. |
As I noted at the top, our survey is semi-scientific. Metrics such as critical buzz and momentum are highly subjective, and even measurements which used to be fairly cut and dry â like how many people are actually watching various shows and movies â are now layered in mystery given the utter lack of transparency by the major platforms, as well as the fact that âratingsâ donât even mean what they used to. (More on that later.) Netflix also still has a big lead in the areas where it counts, like overall subscribers and how much revenue it generates from each account. Its stock is still trading at nearly twice the price of closest rivals Amazon and Disney, at least for now. So while Netflix clearly has fallen, but itâs far from sunk. |
When HBO Max launched in May 2020, most of the conversation about the new streamer focused less on the platform or its programming and more on audiences being confused about the difference between it and Classic HBO. It was a decidedly bumpy few months, which led to way too much doomsaying in some quarters of the media and Wall St. But thatâs all history now: Two years later, HBO Max is playing the hottest hand in streaming, and it had no trouble pushing Netflix out of the top spot. |
What pushed Max to No. 1 is pretty simple: Stellar content. Early on, pandemic delays gummed up the most important part of the Max programming pipeline, namely HBO original series. But the floodgates opened up last fall with the return of tentpoles Succession, Curb Your Enthusiasm, and Insecure. They were followed over the next few months by long-awaited new seasons of Euphoria, The Righteous Gemstones, Barry, and most recently, Westworld. These familiar faves were supplemented by a steady drumbeat of strong newcomers which bore either the HBO or HBO Max brand: The White Locust, Station Eleven, Julia, Winning Time, The Gilded Age, Somebody Somewhere, Peacemaker, Our Flag Means Death, Minx, And Just Like That, The Sex Lives of College Girls, Tokyo Vice. |
To borrow from an old radio business slogan, the offering has been all killer and (very little) filler. Yes, HBO Max has its share of shows which come and go without notice (particularly on the unscripted side), and critics have not been kind to every title. But thereâs not the same bloat which plagues Netflix or even Prime Video. The end result has been a nearly flawless evolution of HBO into HBO Max. |
Other factors contributed to Max winning the streaming throne. For one, HBOâs historic strength at scheduling, promoting, and marketing its shows has continued in the streaming era. The biggest shows (the ones from HBO) still premiere on Sunday or Monday nights at 9 or 10 p.m. ET, with episodes rolling out weekly. It maintains a sense of community around them, and makes them an event every week for two months. Plus, thereâs a logic to when shows roll out: As soon as one cozy period drama such as Gilded Age wraps, for example, another like Julia is there to try to capture a similar audience. And HBO gives its biggest shows, be they âHBOâ or âHBO Maxâ originals, proper marketing campaigns rather than just relying on an algorithm to get fans to notice. |
I also think some of the credit for why Max is doing so well right now belongs to its product team. The first year of the service was plagued by technical trouble as engineers struggled to renovate the guts of the old HBO Go service. The app itself was often buggy and prone to crashes, and the user interfaceâ while always solidâ wasnât quite there. While Iâm sure some folks are still experiencing problems (pro tip: it might be your crappy streaming device!), HBO Max is now a delight to use. |
I remain a Netflix partisan when it comes to user interface, but like so many others, I find that what was once intriguing about its endless rows of content now feels like a chore. HBO Max simply feels better curated, making it easy to find a good classic movie to watch or some classic TV to binge. Thereâs an actual personality to the descriptions of content, rather than random words strung together by computer. Like using an Apple product, browsing HBO Max feels like getting bumped up to business class or window-shopping in a trendier part of town. In an age of Too Much TV, the app which can make users feel like theyâre getting their moneyâs worth has a big advantage. |
As for the other six streamers in our survey: |
â½ Disney+ (No. 2) moved up a spot mostly because Netflix fell so far vs. last year. Still, the Mouse House platformâs IP machine continues to build up steam, cranking out a new Marvel or Star Wars title almost monthly. Thatâs a lot better than its first or even second year, when there were long stretches between interesting titles. |
â½ As someone whoâs been an Apple TV+ (No. 4) bull since day one, its progress does not surprise me. Its leadership wisely realized that with the big conglomerates preparing to claw back their best content for their own platforms, it didnât make sense to spend billions to build a library of good-not-great content based on whatever was available (like, say, MGMâs post-80s movies before the company sold to Amazon). Instead of burning cash on hand-me-downs, Apple has been paying (some would say overpaying) to woo the biggest stars and creators. Itâs a page right out of the HBO playbook, and itâs working. |
â½ Huluâs year was a lot better than its respectable middle-of-the-pack (No. 5) ranking would suggest, though it did move up a spot in the overall standings. Between Hulu-branded series, the FX pipeline, and adult-skewing movies from the Disney studios, the streaming veteran has arguably never been stronger in terms of its originals offering. Even sibling ABC stepped up its game, with Abbott Elementary and The Wonder Years finding big audiences on Hulu. The only thing holding Hulu back is its overall size: It doesnât have the budget or marketing resources of younger sibling Disney+, and that means it often gets a bit lost in the cultural conversation. Joining a supersized Disney+ under a single app just feels inevitable. |
â½ Prime Video (No.6) fell two spots this year, and itâs mostly because of stalled momentum. Yes, The Boys is a breakout hit, and the Amazon streamer continues to offer a nice mix of originals which appeal to a broad range of demographic groups â everything from Amy Poehelerâs stunningly good Lucille Ball documentary and the empowering vibe of Lizzoâs Watch Out for the Big Girrrls reality show, to summer sleeper hit The Summer I Turned Pretty. The platform makes good stuff. But perhaps because itâs spending so much on big draws such as Thursday Night Football and the new Lord of the Rings series (and blockbusters such as The Terminal List), Prime just doesnât have as steady a cadence of gotta-watch content as even an Apple or Hulu. Also, it continues to be burdened with what is easily the worldâs worst user interface, with the possible exception of⦠|
â½ Paramount+ (No. 7), like Hulu, also had a much better twelve months than its near-the-bottom standing indicates. Itâs down so low because itâs still new (not even 18 months old), it doesnât have the resources of the bigger guys, and, yes, the user experience â while slightly improving â seems designed to make it impossible to find something to watch from its actually big library. But its originals slate is starting to reach critical mass: Multiple spin-offs from the Taylor Sheridan Yellowstone Universe; all the Star Treks (including the current, critically-acclaimed Star Trek: Strange New Worlds); two shows from the Kings (Evil, The Good Fight); the Real World: Homecoming franchise; and one of the best new network comedies in years (CBSâs Ghosts). Paramount Pictures feature films are also heading to the app within two months of bowing in theaters (though not Top Gun: Maverick, Iâm guessing), and the live TV option for CBS fare is attractive to many cordcutters who dig Americaâs Number One Network (TM). No, it doesnât feel essential yet, but you can see a path forward. |
â½ Peacock (No. 8) once again finishes at the bottom of our survey, though because Paramount+ is new this year, the Comcast streamer actually fell a spot. Thereâs no denying Peacock had its strongest stretch yet during the first quarter of 2022: The Winter Olympics experience was vastly improved from 2021âs Summer Games, Marry Me was a delightful hit, and while critics were mixed, Bel-Air made a ton of noise. Its original comedies (Girls 5Eva, Rutherford Falls, Killing It) feel like the streaming evolution of NBCâs old Thursday-night Must-See TV comedy lineup. But the platform still seems all over the map when it comes to dramas and reality shows, and so many of its shows come and go without anyone seeming to notice. NBCâs primetime lineup will begin streaming exclusively on Peacock this fall (ditching Hulu), giving the service yet another chance to reboot as it looks for a winning strategy. |
Vultureâs TV critics make their opinions of the programing on various streaming platforms known on a regular basis through their reviews. But original content, crucial as it is to a streamerâs personality, is not the only factor which goes into how consumers (and yes, critics) interact with services. Everything from depth of library and ease of use to how it is all presented in the actual app play a role, too. Our official streaming ranking didnât include any official input from our own critics, but I was still interested to see which services they love and loathe right now. Hereâs their take on the best and worst streamers out there, as well as some thought on whoâs getting better and building momentum: |
Best Streamer: HBO Max. The HBO and broader Warner Bros. catalogue means thereâs a massive amount of existing television and films to watch and re-watch. And while the original programming coming out of HBO and HBO Max isnât all hits, the new shows tend to be of reliably high quality, in keeping with HBO tradition. |
Runner-Up: Hulu. If youâre trying to keep up with network shows but donât have cable, this is the best service by far. And they have a strong track record with originals, thanks in part to its partnerships with FX and other distributors. This year alone, Huluâs given us The Drop-Out, The Bear, Under the Banner of Heaven, Conversations With Friends, and a second season of Only Murders in the Building, and weâre only halfway through 2022. Impressive. |
Most Improved: AppleTV+. While their back catalogue is not nearly as robust as these other three, its originals have slowly but consistently become must-watches with predictably high production values and creative vision. Itâs not HBO yet. But it could be. |
Worst Streamer: Paramount+.This is not entirely about content â Evil, one of my current favorite shows, is a Paramount+ joint â but more about interface and ease of use. I often find myself digging through the bowels of Paramount+ to find shows I have viewed before and that should be more easily accessible. Itâs also hard to wrap oneâs mind around what exactly Paramount+ offers; the most popular show to ever air on the Paramount Network, Yellowstone, isnât streamable on Paramount+? Like, what? |
Best Streamer: HBO Max. Excellent library of both original HBO TV series and Warner Bros. movies, and I like how bold the homepage design is visually. Big pictures in that homepage design, good categories, and the specialty hubs (like TCM) canât be beat. |
Most momentum: Apple TV+: Severance, For All Mankind, and Pachinko are some of the best, buzziest series on TV right now, and theyâre all on Apple TV+. Severance alone seems to have done more to put Apple TV+ [on the map] than anything else, including Best Picture Oscar winner Coda, and thatâs a big deal. |
Most underrated: Peacock: Much like Apple TV+ seems to be taking big swings with sci-fi and epic series, Peacock has an array of excellent comedies that more people should be watching. Bust Down, Girls5eva, Killing It, We Are Lady Parts, Rutherford Falls â they deserve more attention than the very little theyâre currently getting. |
Worst Streamer: Prime Video: I simply have no interest in ever scrolling through Primeâs offerings on the app. The homepage design is so busy, the search function is awful, and I am not particularly compelled by too much of their original programming. |
Best Streamer: HBO Max. Itâs in a magical zone where it still has the inherited oomph of HBO curation, but itâs begun to broaden out into more wide-appeal offerings without losing that impression that most of what it does is, at the very least, interesting. It also has one of the better interfaces and deep-cut libraries. This pains me to admit, because I do not like Hacks. |
Runner-up: Apple TV+. I think itâs possible that Apple TV+ is mainly driven by what Tim Cook personally likes watching. I canât prove that, but it just seems like maybe thatâs whatâs happening here. Even if thatâs the case, though, clearly enough people love Ted Lasso that somethingâs working for them. One thing I do want to note, that is maybe less visible for people who donât have kids, is that Apple has quietly been building the strongest roster of original childrenâs programming in streaming. There is a huge gap in shows meant for later-elementary aged children, and Puppy Place, Ghostwriter, Wolfboy and the Everything Factory, Harriet the Spy, and Pinecone and Pony are all remarkably good. |
Honorable mention: Peacock. Based on how little attention it seems able to garner, I assume Peacock is actually on the verge of collapse. It also cannot seem to get its act together for a big, sticky, exciting drama show, which it definitely needs in order to boost its sense of indispensability. (It could be Yellowstone, but apparently that is not allowed.) But some of my favorite comedies are Peacock comedies, and itâd be so nice if that continued to still be true for another couple of years. |
Worst Streamer: Prime Video. Prime is the worst platform. Iâm sorry! Its UI sucks. Did you know that on its Apple TV app, when you type in a show title you have to scroll down and actually click the title to make the dang thing search for you? Why canât you search automatically like every other search function on Godâs green earth! The advantage of Prime is that itâs easy to use it to subscribe to other platforms. Sadly thatâs about it! |
One of the biggest headaches of the streaming era is trying to figure out whether a show is really, truly successful. Audience measurement systems similar to Nielsen ratings are still in their infancy, and even when there are ânumbersâ available, itâs not always clear what they mean for a showâs long-term prospects. This sense of uncertainty is frustrating for reporters like me who cover the business, but itâs doubly so for the people who actually make the shows. Platforms really donât tell them much more about whoâs watching their shows than they let the rest of us know. OurTV critic Kathryn VanArendonk had the idea of reaching out to various showrunners and granting them anonymity so they could honestly detail how theyâre coping in this age of uncertainty, and she and I spoke to X creators about the matter. The highlights are gathered in this weekâs TV Issue of New York, or you can read the story online here. |
As a bonus for Buffering readers, I ask VanArendonk to describe the overall mood of the writers she spoke to about this issue, and whether or not they think the situation will get better anytime soon (i.e., will streamers ever become more transparent about viewing data.) Hereâs what she told me: |
âFor several of the people I spoke with, I think itâs safe to characterize their feelings about how their platforms share information with them as furious and resigned. The showrunners who say theyâre totally fine with the system are definitely resigned, and the people who say they wouldâve done nothing differently if theyâd had more information are sometimes furious but generally accept that this is the norm. For the people who do feel like they were treated terribly, theyâre angry, and thereâs a sense that theyâre operating in a black box, but no one can picture where the lever might be that might persuade the platforms to behave differently. Maybe if one outlet is egregious enough, thereâll be some chilling effect among the people theyâre trying to work with? The scale would have to be enormous, and itâs hard to imagine that happening. But I will say that more than one showrunner I spoke with told me that they shudder at the prospect of working with Netflix. |
I do think thereâs some reason to suspect it wonât be this way forever, and itâs because as a few of these showrunners point out, they do not actually know how any one specific show makes a platform money. Clearly, for the undeniable global hits, one title can drive subscriptions. But for everything else, the direct connection between âwe put this show out thereâ and ânow we make money because this show existsâ is ⦠tenuous. At best. And iIt does seem like weâre finally at a point where eternal subscriber growth is clearly not going to be sustainable. So maybe thatâs the point when things like audience demographics and fervent fan bases might start to matter? |
The one other thing I do think might change pretty quickly is that third party analytics companies are not going away. It doesnât seem wild to imagine a world where Nielsen and other companies get much, much better at measuring streaming viewership. Even if Netflix or Apple wonât tell its showrunners who watches their shows, other companies may be able to once again become a go-to metric for how a show is doing. Funny to think of a bright future for Nielsen as a utopian future, but here we are!â |
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