At this stage in the game, there's a mountain of polling that's pulling us (get it?) in all sorts of directions. Donald Trump is ahead in so-and-so states. No wait, Trump just tweeted something at 5:30 a.m. making fun of someone. Now Clinton is ahead. No, wait, her vice-presidential nominee didn't have a great debate. Now Trump has the edge. It's best not to get caught up in all this — both for your sanity and because polling can lead you astray. Instead, says The Fix's polling guru, Philip Bump, think of presidential polling in swing states like a tug-of-war match: That little flag dangling over the middle of the state gets yanked one direction or the other. If it's hanging over the Democratic side when voting is done, Hillary Clinton wins the electoral votes. If it's over the Republican side, they go to Donald Trump. A poll a month before the final tally is less a predictor of the final result than it is an indicator of how the rope is being tugged. A number of tugs in one direction over a short period of time tells you something about how the race will end up! But most polling consists of little tugs in either direction, without much movement overall. Yeah, but ... can you still tell me who's going to win? With that major caveat in mind, yes. Keep in mind that the presidential election isn't decided by one, big national vote. It's decided by 50 votes in 50 states. So Bump built a tool that keeps track of the latest polling in the latest swing states and overlays it on our electoral map showing how many electoral votes each state is worth. The result is basically the presidential election if it were held literally right this minute. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win, and right nowish, polling tells us that Clinton has more than enough: But who won the vice-presidential debate, you say? Our partners at mic.com have the roundup: Two polls on Wednesday morning show Trump with slight leads ahead of Clinton, like within a point or three. But polling averages still show Clinton leading Trump by three percentage points, even when you include the two third-party candidates. Again, we caution: The 2016 presidential election is basically a game of tug-of-war right now. The 2016 race, millennial edition Turns out young people more than other people would really like to vote for someone for president not named Clinton or Trump. Like, anyone. Bump also combed through some new polls and found that even though a quarter of young voters said they'd never heard of Democratic VP nominee Tim Kaine (click this link if you haven't either), they'd prefer him to Trump by 22 points. Something similar happens when Fairleigh Dickinson polling matches up Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R) with Clinton: Young voters in particular don't know who he is (click this link if you're among them), but sure, they'll vote for him over Clinton. | 