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| Monday, March 18, 2024 |
| Injuries aren't just a part of Spring Training; they are, arguably, the defining feature of spring. Last year, 162 players were placed on the IL in advance of the start of the season, and it was still 109 even if you exclude players who entered the season recovering from surgery. |
| I point this out to remind you that this happens every year. IL stints occur most frequently in March and April, and we're dodging these landmines every year … but this year feels especially bad, doesn't it? |
| Scott White has a recap of all the news from this weekend around baseball, and the biggest storyline is, obviously, Eury Perez 's sore elbow. He reported soreness in his right elbow after being removed from his past spring start – a removal that was, at least at the time, due to a recurring finger injury. Now, Perez's status for the season is up in the air, and the fact that he's going to visit surgeon Keith Meister – who did Sandy Alcantara's Tommy John surgery last fall – feels like an especially ominous sign. |
| Nothing is certain, but if you're drafting before we have an official prognosis on Perez, I think you probably have to leave him for the later rounds. It's possible this ends up being a relatively minor injury, but unlike with other spring scares like Kyle Bradish or Gerrit Cole , we haven't seen any optimistic reports since the initial injury was announced, which, again, feels ominous. I've moved Perez into the reserve round range of my rankings, and I'll be absolutely thrilled if that ends up being far too pessimistic. |
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| We had another couple of potentially serious injuries crop up this weekend, with Josh Lowe (oblique) and TJ Friedl (wrist) looking extremely unlikely for Opening Day. Lowe's injury is an oblique strain that is expected to land him on the IL to open the season, and I've moved him down to around 150 in my rankings, with the expectation he misses at least the first couple of weeks of the regular season, and potentially as much as the entire month of May; oblique injuries are notoriously tricky. |
| Friedl moves even further down the ranks after he fractured his wrist over the weekend. He'll be re-assessed in 3-4 weeks, but don't mistake that as "he'll be back in 3-4 weeks." Friedl could be cleared from the injury in that time span, but he would probably still need at least a few weeks to get back to game shape, making an April return look pretty unlikely. And, of course, if the injury hasn't healed in four weeks, you're pushing into May pretty easily. |
| I've moved Friedl outside of my top 200, while moving Will Benson and Jake Fraley into my top 300. Jonathan India also could benefit from another absence in the Reds lineup, though he has his own injury concerns. |
| We'll have more about India in the rest of today's newsletter, as he's been one of the biggest risers in Average Draft Position over the past week. But, before you scroll on to that, make sure you head here to read Scott White's thoughts on Perez, Lowe, Friedl, and all the rest of the injuries and other news you need to know from around spring action this weekend. |
| And now, let's get to the biggest risers and fallers in ADP over the past week as we get set for the biggest draft week of the year: |
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| The biggest ADP risers |
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| For this exercise, we're looking at NFBC ADP data, comparing the past week – March 10-17 – to the first nine days of March, looking at who has seen the biggest gains and drops in value. Some of these should come as no surprise if you've been reading this newsletter and following the news, but there are a few notable changes worth knowing about. |
| Here's whose value has increased the most over the past week: |
| Joel Payamps, MLW, P -- Early-March: 588.95; Past week: 356.3 |
| Okay, I guess I need to move Payamps down in my rankings. In the aftermath of Devin Williams' back injury, I moved Payamps up to around 150 in my rankings, but I guess everyone doesn't share my assumption that he's going to be the closer for the Brewers . I'm perfectly willing to keep Payamps ranked ahead of the consensus here, but I could move him down 100 spots and still potentially be the high guy in the room on him. Abner Uribe is going about 100 picks behind Payamps, with Trevor Megill another 100 picks later. |
| Gavin Stone, LAD, P -- Early-March: 467.04; Past week: 355.01 |
| Stone is one of my favorite late-round sleeper picks at pitcher these days, and I'm taking him 75 picks ahead of even the updated ADP. He's almost certainly going to open the season in the Dodgers rotation, and this is a guy we were extremely excited to see make his MLB debut last season. He dealt with a spring injury that messed up his mechanics and led to a pitch-tipping issue last season, but he also has a career 3.19 ERA and 33% strikeout rate, so I'll bet on him figuring it out and showing some upside this season. |
| Victor Scott, STL, OF -- Early-March: 551.62; Past week: 426.61 |
| I think if Scott were announced as the Cardinals Opening Day center fielder right now, he'd be a top 150 pick in the rest of the drafts. Scott hit .303/.369/.425 with 94 steals in 132 games in the minors last season, with significantly better quality of contact metrics than someone like Esteury Ruiz has managed. Scott might just be overwhelmed in the majors and sent down after just a few weeks, but he certainly hasn't looked it in spring yet – he's hitting .367/.457/.433 with just four strikeouts in 35 plate appearances – and he's a dark horse to lead the majors in steals this season. I'll throw one of my reserve-round picks at him every single time. |
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| Jackson Merrill, SD, SS -- Early-March: 375.27; Past week: 303.14 |
| Merrill will be the Opening Day center fielder for the Padres when they take on the Dodgers in two days, and he needs to be drafted in all leagues as a result. His minor-league numbers won't jump off the page – he hit .277/.326/.444 with 15 homers and 15 steals – but he's a consensus top-20 prospect in baseball who will be making his MLB debut before his 21st birthday. He's no Jackson Holliday, but he's the cheapest blue chip prospect you'll be able to draft this week. |
| Nick Lodolo, CIN, P -- Early-March: 294.94; Past week: 241.43 |
| Lodolo may not be ready for the first turn through the rotation, but it sounds like he's put the stress reaction in his left leg behind him and isn't much behind schedule at this point. He made his spring debut against the Mariners this weekend, striking out four while allowing four baserunners in 2.2 innings of work. Lodolo has an elite 29.3% strikeout rate in 137.2 MLB innings for his career, and he had a 3.66 ERA back in 2022 when he was a rookie. If he does that again over 150 or so innings, Lodolo is going to be a steal. |
| Jonathan India, CIN, 2B -- Early-March: 303.45; Past week: 248.53 |
| India is finally playing in spring action, and he's homered twice in his first two games, which is great to see. But, I've gotta be honest … I don't love drafting him here. Noelvi Marte 's suspension and TJ Friedl's injury have cleared up some of the log jam in the Reds lineup, but India has questions even with those two out of the picture to open the season. If he repeats what he did last season, it's a steal – he was on a near 20-20 pace with 190 runs and RBI last season – but he also hit just .226 with two steals in 26 games after the All-Star break as he dealt with a plantar fasciitis issue that has continued to plague him through the offseason and into spring. India has a decent ceiling, I suppose, but given the lingering nature of the injury, he's just not at the top of my late-round target list. |
| Ryan Weathers, MIA, P -- Early-March: 662.61; Past week: 547.63 |
| With the Marlins rotation injuries, Weathers looks locked into the Opening Day rotation, and he has to be on late-round radars after looking as good as he has this spring. He's been sitting in the high-90s with his fastball and has 21 strikeouts to just four walks in 18 innings of work over five starts. It's just a small-sample size in spring, but Weathers is a former top-100 prospect and top-10 pick, and the Marlins have earned a reputation for their pitching development skills. I'm taking A.J. Puk ahead of Weathers – and Puk's ADP is up to 256.31 amidst his own terrific spring – but Weathers is a viable deep sleeper. |
| Oneil Cruz, PIT, SS -- Early-March: 62.87; Past week: 52.22 |
| To a certain extent, this is just spring hype – Cruz had five homers in a four-game stretch over the past two weeks, so of course he's getting inflated in drafts. That's not the best process, but I think it's defensible for two reasons: For one, Cruz has struck out just six times in 29 PA this spring, a (small) sign that he might have figured out his biggest issue; the other reason is just that maybe some drafters simply needed to see him healthy and looking like himself before they could make the plunge. I don't love pushing players up this high for spring performance, but in Cruz's case, I already had him ranked ahead of his prior ADP, so I can't complain too much. |
| Wyatt Langford, TEX, OF -- Early-March: 109.38; Past week: 92.18 |
| I don't know how much further Langford can move without actually being named to the Opening Day roster, and I can only imagine how much higher he's going to go off the board if he actually is named to the roster. The Rangers have been non-committal about Langford's roster status despite the fact that he's been arguably the best hitter in baseball this spring. There's literally nothing more he could do as a hitter, with five homers and 16 RBI in 15 games. It might just come down to whether the team wants to relegate him to DH full time, or whether they want to sideline one of their existing outfield options. Both Josh Jung and Corey Seager dealing with injuries that could have them somewhere south of 100% healthy by Opening Day could play a role in their calculations. It's almost impossible to imagine Langford not making the roster at this point, and he might have 30-30 upside even as a rookie. I haven't drafted him yet, and I'm regretting not getting the discount when it was available. |
| The biggest ADP fallers |
| The ADP fallers section is mostly just a collection of the most high-profile injuries over the past week or so, though I did try to highlight a few fallers who aren't just dealing with injuries. |
| Gerrit Cole, NYY, P -- Early-March: 15.85; Past week: 126.13 |
| Cole has been shut down from throwing after receiving an official diagnosis of nerve inflammation and edema – a build-up of fluid in the body's tissues – and will be shut down from throwing for three to four weeks. Assuming all goes well in that time, Cole will begin the slow process of building back up, and will likely need six weeks to build up arm strength again, so we're looking at, in all likelihood, late-May return to action for Cole. Cole downplayed the injury when speaking to reporters about the diagnosis this week, but Cole is tumbling even farther in Fantasy drafts since the official diagnosis – his ADP since Friday is 171.4. I'm okay taking him there, but there's a realistic chance you don't get anything from him this season. I'd take Justin Verlander over him, personally. |
| Taj Bradley, TB, P -- Early-March: 243.15; Past week: 354.98 |
| This is another one where the "last week" ADP doesn't really tell the whole story, as Bradley was diagnosed with a strained pec last week and has fallen to 408.5 in ADP since. Bradley was an interesting post-hype sleeper, and while the hope is that this injury won't keep him out too long, if you don't have an IL spot to play with, it's gonna be tough to stash someone who is already kind of a long shot. |
| Lars Nootbaar, STL, OF -- Early-March: 216.93; Past week: 309.1 |
| Nootbaar is recovering from two non-displaced fractures in his ribcage, and as of now doesn't have a timetable for his return – the hope is the team will have a better idea by the end of this week. I'm not expecting him to be ready for Opening Day, but this is probably a nice buying opportunity for a guy who might be back in a few weeks if all goes well. |
| Emmet Sheehan, LAD, P -- Early-March: 324.12; Past week: 440.95 |
| Sheehan is opening the season on the IL, but there's a caveat there – the Dodgers are starting their season a week earlier than the rest of the league with their two-game series against the Padres. It's not clear if he will be ready for the domestic Opening Day next week, but Sheehan's injury (which has mostly been described as "general soreness") has never sounded too serious, so it might not be long. If I have a roster spot to play with, I'm definitely adding Sheehan, who should get an opportunity before long. |
| Edward Cabrera, MIA, P -- Early-March: 288.74; Past week: 391.57 |
| Of the Marlins projected Opening Day rotation, only Jesus Luzardo is going to be ready for the start of the season, and that's not even including ace Sandy Alcantara, who will miss this season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Cabrera, recovering from a shoulder issue, has already restarted his throwing this weekend, and if all goes well seemingly could be back in game action in just a couple of weeks. Cabrera has significant control issues to overcome even without the injury, but he also has a career 26.2% strikeout rate with terrific quality-of-contact results on balls in play. If he gets healthy, there's still enough upside here worth chasing in your reserve rounds. |
| Gavin Williams, CLE, P -- Early-March: 163.34; Past week: 215.83 |
| Williams is dealing with elbow soreness that will also land him on the IL to open the season, though MRI results showed no damage to the elbow, so hopefully this isn't a long-term thing. He'll likely begin throwing in the coming days, with mid-April seeming like a decent timetable to aim for. There's always risk when we're talking about pitcher injuries in spring, but I'm fine drafting Williams at his cost. I may avoid him in my remaining drafts just because I already drafted him multiple times before the injury. |
| Brett Baty, NYM, 3B -- Early-March: 432.93; Past week: 555.35 |
| Baty is having a rough spring, hitting .241/.290/.379, though I don't really think it makes sense to discount him much more than he was before this at this point. The Mets were linked to J.D. Davis when he was released by the Giants, but with him signing with the Athletics , it doesn't seem like there's much playing time risk here. Baty's spring struggles certainly don't help make the sleeper case for him, but we're still talking about a career .290/.390/.507 hitter in the minors who was a consensus top-35 prospect in baseball this time a year ago. This spring hasn't made me especially hopeful about Baty's chances of figuring it out, but I'm certainly not giving up hope either. |
| Robert Stephenson, LAA, P -- Early-March: 335.86; Past week: 430.33 |
| When Stephenson was being drafted ahead of Carlos Estevez back in February, he was being drafted too early. Now? I thought his price was fine even before it dropped another 95 spots. He's dealing with a shoulder issue that has kept him out of spring action, and the lingering nature of that shoulder discomfort is certainly a concern. But Stephenson had 77 strikeouts in 52.1 innings last season (and was even better after getting to the Rays), and if he can get healthy and repeat that, I bet there's going to be a stretch where he's getting saves for the Angels. In deeper leagues – and especially holds-plus-saves leagues – Stephenson remains a fine reserve-round pick. |
| Nathaniel Lowe, TEX, 1B -- Early-March: 225.12; Past week: 285.89 |
| This is another one where, I think the price prior to his injury was probably enough of a discount that I'm still drafting him if I have an IL spot to play with. Lowe was a big disappointment last season, but he still had 82 RBI and 89 runs thanks to that Rangers lineup, and it wasn't unreasonable to expect improvement on Lowe's 17 homers. The oblique injury is certainly a complicating factor, but Lowe should be a solid starter for your corner infield spot at what is, frankly, a gigantic discount at this cost. |
| Jarred Kelenic, ATL, OF – Early-March: 208.58; Past week: 241.68 |
| The case for Kelenic is similar to Baty, except his struggles have already seemingly cost him an everyday role. Kelenic is 3 for 41 37 this spring, and the Braves just signed Adam Duvall with the express purpose of serving as Kelenic's platoon partner. It's a weird fit – Kelenic was actually better against lefties last season and his underlying data didn't suggest he was a righty-crusher just waiting to be unleashed – and I think it's more suggestive of the Braves' lack of faith in Kelenic. He's still an okay late-round sleeper target, but I really can't bring myself to get excited about this discount. |
| Junior Caminero, TB, 3B -- Early-March: 260.88; Past week: 314.39 |
| Caminero was sent to minor-league camp this week, and it didn't come as much of a surprise. The Rays almost never call their top prospects up for good without significant success at Triple-A, and Caminero hasn't played there. It's possible he stays down until June and even a 314.4 ADP ends up being a tough price to pay. But seeing as they've already started the clock for Caminero in the majors with his cup of coffee last season, they might only need to see a couple of great weeks from him to give him the call. Camerino could be a Yordan Alvarez-esque rookie impact maker, and he's only going to cost you a bench spot for the final 10 days of draft season. |
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