| | | | Wednesday, July 31, 2024 | | Now that the excitement of the trade deadline is done, it's time to pick through the pieces and figure out what the new Fantasy landscape looks like. The absolute biggest names on the market – Tarik Skubal, Luis Robert, and Garrett Crochet – ultimately weren't moved, but there's still plenty of fallout to sort through. | | First things first: Make sure you didn't miss any of the big news by checking out our Trade Deadline Tracker here. Scott White and I went through every relevant move over the past week and gave our spin on the Fantasy implications of each, including some thoughts on long-term, Dynasty-focused players, as well as several thousand words on the redraft fallout. | | And then it's time to look for the biggest winners and losers, which won't necessarily all be players who were traded. They won't even necessarily be players we thought might be traded but who weren't. For example: Hayden Birdsong is one of Scott's biggest winners from the deadline because the Giants found a long-term rotation spot for him by shipping Alex Cobb out to the Guardians . Birdsong is only 34% rostered despite 20 strikeouts over his past two starts, in large part because it wasn't clear when his next start would come. Now, we know it's going to be in the Giants rotation, potentially as soon as this weekend, and given the massive swing-and-miss potential he has shown across multiple pitches, he probably needs to be rostered in nearly all leagues. | | Birdsong is joined by Jazz Chisholm, Miguel Vargas, and others in Scott's writeup of the biggest winners, while Tanner Scott and Isaac Paredes headline the list of the biggest losers. You can check out Scott's column here for more on why he included those players and who else saw their value move up or down as a result of the deadline. | | In the rest of today's newsletter, we've got a deadline-focused crop of waiver-wire targets to focus on, plus the biggest standouts from Tuesday's action, and the rest of the news and notes you need to know about. We're one day away from August, and the stretch run is about to start. Let's make sure you're ready to take home a championship. | | | | Wednesday's waiver targets | | | | Jackson Holliday, SS, Orioles (65%) – It's time for Round 2. Holliday's first taste of the majors was a disaster. There's no need to sugarcoat it, he struck out 18 times in 36 trips to the plate before being sent right back down to Triple-A … where he continued to struggle, hitting .252 with a 24.3% strikeout rate in his first 40 games before going on the IL with an elbow injury. That reset seemed to help, as he hit .273/.426/.507 with much better plate discipline than he had before the injury. There were still more strikeouts than expected, but it's worth keeping in mind throughout all this that Holliday doesn't even turn 21 until this December and has played just 228 career games as a professional – for some context, Holliday is five months younger than Charlie Condon, the No. 3 pick in this month's MLB draft, and he's more than a year younger than Travis Bazzana, the No. 1 pick in the draft. We already learned Holliday is no sure thing, but it's still a bet on an elite young talent, and this time, it won't cost you a top-150 draft pick. | | Josh Bell, 1B, Diamondbacks (41%) – When Bell was traded at least year's deadline, he had just a .701 OPS before going on to hit 11 homers in his final 53 games en route to an .818 OPS. That kind of inconsistency is just par for the course for Bell, and I'll just point out that his current OPS is just two points lower than last season's. That doesn't mean he'll have a similar run here, but he's already started to heat up – five homers in his past seven games – and should be the primary first baseman for the D-Backs for the next 3-4 weeks with Christian Walker on the IL with an oblique injury. If you need power, he's certainly worth a look in a much better lineup. | | | | Alex Cobb, SP, Guardians (15%) – Cobb is going to make one more rehab start this week before making his Guardians debut, and he should be worth rostering the rest of the way with that lineup backing him up. Cobb isn't a difference maker by any means, but he has a 3.79 ERA over the past three seasons and it's reasonable to expect something similar as long as he's healthy. Based on the data from his rehab assignment, he should be in pretty good shape. | | Ben Joyce, RP, Angels (21%) – With Carlos Estevez and Luis Garcia out, it sure looks like Joyce should be the Angels closer the rest of the way. The 23-year-old hasn't been as dominant as you'd think for someone with a fastball he can dial up to 104 mph, either in the majors or minors, but it's obviously not for lack of stuff. His command is inconsistent, but Joyce is obviously a high-upside late-inning arm, and he seemingly has a clear path to whatever saves the Angels can muster the rest of the way. Though it is worth noting that, when a save opportunity presented itself Tuesday night, it was Hunter Strickland who got the ninth inning, with Joyce working the eighth with a one-run lead against the 4-5-6 hitters in the Rockies lineup. I'd still bet on Joyce getting the next opportunity, but it sure seems like less of a guarantee than expected. | | Chad Green, RP, Blue Jays (34%) – It was a mild surprise when the Blue Jays didn't move Green at the deadline, but it clears him to remain the closer likely for the rest of the season with Yimi Garcia out of the way. Green hasn't been much of a strikeout pitcher this season, and I don't think his 1.67 ERA is at all sustainable – he has a 4.36 FIP, which is pretty alarming – but he's still a closer for a team that isn't a total disaster, which means he should probably be a higher priority than Joyce if you're just looking for saves. | | Jake Bloss, SP, Blue Jays (4%) – Bloss hasn't been great in his first few tastes of the majors, allowing nine runs in 11.2 innings over three starts, but there's clearly something to build on here. He's got a legitimate five-pitch mix with several swing-and-miss pitches, and that's led to a 1.64 ERA in 66 innings across three levels of the minors this season. It's not clear how long it's going to take Bloss to get his chance in Toronto, but with Yariel Rodriguez sent down and Yusei Kikuchi out of the picture, there's a need. In deeper leagues, Bloss is worth stashing. | | Joey Loperfido, OF, Blue Jays (15%) – Now Loperfido, one of the other key pieces in the Kikuchi trade, is going to get a chance right away with the Blue Jays. He hasn't exactly lit the world on fire in his stints in the majors, especially struggling against breaking balls (62.5% whiff rate, 84.2 mph average exit velocity, .117 expected batting average), but Loperfido has been very good across his minor-league career, including 37 homers in 155 games between Double-A and Triple-A. It's reasonable to be skeptical, but in five outfielder leagues with more than 12 teams, I think he's worth a look just in case he can figure things out down the stretch. | | | | News and Notes | | Gerrit Cole was scratched from Tuesday's start due to general body fatigue. He reiterated he's not dealing with an arm issue and that he expects to pitch this weekend, and manager Aaron Boone told reporters that Cole had been battling a stomach bug this week. That all makes sense, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little nervous about this right now, given Cole's preseason elbow injury. I'll grant I'm being a bit paranoid there, of course. | | Mike Trout had another setback in his recovery from knee surgery and is being re-evaluated. When asked if Trout could return this season GM Perry Minasian said: "We'll see." That doesn't sound good. | | Apparently, the Yankees backed out of a Jack Flaherty trade due to medical concerns. The Dodgers didn't seem to share those same concerns, at least not enough to scuttle the deal, though it might help explain why the return for Flaherty was relatively underwhelming in what was otherwise a buyer's market. | | Josh Jung was in the Rangers lineup Tuesday, batting seventh. I expect Jung to be a must-start Fantasy option once he locks in. | | Francisco Alvarez has missed two straight with left shoulder soreness. | | Mason Miller threw a bullpen session Tuesday. He's on the IL with a fractured finger on his non-throwing hand, but that's a good sign. | | Lane Thomas made his Guardians debut Tuesday, batting second in the lineup. That's a prime spot between Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez and could make Thomas one of the winners from the deadline if he's going to play every day. | | Erick Fedde will make his Cardinals debut Friday against the Cubs. | | Isaac Paredes made his Cubs debut, batting fifth, playing third base. He went 0-4. | | Christopher Morel made his Rays debut: batting third, playing second base, went 1-4 with his 19th HR. It would be pretty interesting if he played enough at second to gain extra eligibility there. | | Welcome back to St. Louis, Tommy Pham! He appeared as a pinch-hitter and launched a grand slam. | | Starling Marte hopes to start a rehab assignment as soon as next week. He's been out since June 25 with a right knee bone bruise, and I do wonder if he'll run as much when he gets back from the injury. I would love to see him still a few bases on the rehab assignment. | | Evan Carter is not expected to play again during the regular season. He's been out since late May with a lumbar sprain. This will end up as more or less a lost season, given how much Carter struggled before the injury, but I will be looking to buy low on him in drafts next spring. | | News for next year: Braves president Alex Anthopolous told reporters Ronald Acuña is likely to be ready for Opening Day. He had surgery to repair a torn ACL back in early June. | | Tuesday's standouts | | Justin Steele, Cubs @CIN: 5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 7 K – Maybe Steele just has an especially narrow margin for error? He doesn't have even average velocity and basically just throws two pitches, so he might just be a pitcher who is at risk of getting hit especially hard when he isn't at the top of his game. He hasn't been lately, allowing 12 runs over his past three starts, but it's worth keeping in mind that he had a 1.48 ERA in nine starts prior to this stretch, so I really don't have any concerns here. He should get back on track in no time. | | Robbie Ray , Giants vs. OAK: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Well, the A's do this to pitchers now, don't you know? Ray wasn't great in his one, obviously, as he struggled to command his breaking balls and had to throw his fastball 65% of the time as a result. The stuff still looked mostly fine, though his fastball velocity was actually down 1 mph from his debut, which takes the shine off that promising outing just a bit. I still think Ray is going to be a very useful fantasy option and potentially a difference-maker, but this throws a bit of cold water on him being a must-start option already. | | Gavin Williams, Guardians @DET: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – I'm still not sure what's going on with Williams' slider, which is coming in 2.1 mph harder than last season and just hasn't been the swing and miss pitch it was last season. It didn't matter in this one, as he overwhelmed the Tigers mostly with his fastball, which generated 12 of his 16 swinging strikes. But I think having another reliable putaway pitch would help Williams get through lineups a bit more efficiently, as he has just one start with more than 5.1 innings in his first five. Still, he's been more good than bad overall and has 17 strikeouts to three walks over the past two outings, so I think Williams is worth adding where available (he's 71% rostered right now). | | Chris Bassitt , Blue Jays @BAL: 4 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – The mental aspect of the game is one thing we know we can't quantify, but you have to wonder how much the trade deadline was affecting Bassitt as his name swirled in rumors. He had a 3.24 ERA at the end of June, but with this start, he's up to 4.02 for the season, as he gave up 20 runs in 25.2 innings in July. His control was a bit shakier than usual, but otherwise, everything pretty much looked like we expected it to for Bassitt, whose velocity was actually up across the board Tuesday. I'm fine sitting him right now, but I'd rather not drop a pitcher with Bassitt's track record, especially when we've seen him pull out of worse slumps in recent seasons. | | Jeffrey Springs, Rays vs. MIA: 3.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Alright, we expected better from Springs against the Marlins . But I will say, there's a reason we typically keep expectations in check for a player's first game back from the IL, especially a long layoff like Springs'. His fastball velocity was notably down 1.8 mph from last season, which is obviously concerning as he is coming back from Tommy John surgery. Springs did get a solid 10 whiffs on 36 swings, so I definitely don't want to overreact to one bad start. But I'll put him in the "Give me a reason to trust you" basket of pitchers. | | Sean Manaea, Mets vs. MIN: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K – Manaea generated 23 swinging strikes in this one, matching the record for the Mets in the pitch-track era. That's a heck of an achievement, but I don't really see any reason to think it was anything more than an aberration – Manaea's velocity was actually slightly down across the board, and yet he somehow managed to generate 13 swinging strikes with his sinker and four-seamer. We saw a nine-strikeout showing from Manaea earlier in July and he followed it up with five runs in five innings and one strikeout. We know who this guy is, and he's a streamer at best. | | JP Sears, Athletics @SF: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Sears is on a nice little run right now, striking out 30 with just four walks and a 3.07 ERA over his past five starts. It has coincided with some small tweaks to his approach, namely throwing his four-seamer and sweeper more and his sinker and changeup less, which is probably a good move if you're looking for more whiffs. Of course, in this game, the changeup was his second most-used pitch and he only threw seven sweepers. Which is to say, I don't think there's much here to make this success sustainable. He does get the White Sox next week, so the run could continue, but I'm not expecting Sears to be a must-start pitcher moving forward or anything. | | David Festa, Twins @NYM: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Festa isn't a high-end prospect or anything, but he's been a name to know for a while, so seeing a solid start like this does open your eyes a little bit. Of course, he also threw just 68 pitches as the Twins are pretty clearly trying to limit his exposure to just two turns through the batting order. Festa has some interesting minor-league stats, but right now, he doesn't really look like someone you can rely on at the MLB level. | | Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Diamondbacks – Suarez looked pretty cooked before July, hitting just six homers with atrocious quality of contact metrics and a sky-high strikeout rate. Since the calendar turned to July, that's all changed; he has 10 homers after Tuesday's three-homer game, he has cut his strikeout rate to 26%, and his average exit velocity is up to 92.5 mph in the month. He'll cool off at some point, but I'm fine with riding Suarez while he's locked in like this. | | Jazz Chisholm, OF, Yankees – Maybe Chisholm was just born to play in front of the big lights. He homered two more times Tuesday against the Phillies , giving him four in his first three games, a Yankee franchise record. He even hit one of those homers off a tough lefty reliever, giving him three against lefties this season; he had three in the 2022 and 2023 seasons combined. It's not hard to see a rejuvenated Chisholm continuing to play like a star the rest of the way in this Yankees lineup – and he hasn't even had the opportunity to take aim at that short right field fence in the Bronx yet. | | | | | | | | International Friendly | | USL | Two international giants face off in a summer match tonight at 8 PM ET on the Golazo Network and streaming on Paramount+.
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