| Good Friday afternoon, welcome back to GBU.
This Strasbourg week saw von der Leyen face the ire of MEPs, as a motion of censure offered the chance to air multifarious grievances against the Commission president. The vote itself didn't present an existential threat to the executive, as disunity among the plaintiffs made it almost inconceivable that the two-thirds majority would be reached.
But the debate three days before was entertaining nonetheless, as centrist parties upbraided the EPP for its dealings with far-right groups. And after railing against the European People's Party's "irresponsible" tactics to sideline old allies through dealings with the European Conservatives and Reformists, the Socialists landed a victory as von der Leyen promised to keep €150 billion social spending in the next budget.
Tariffs incoming
The spectacle of von der Leyen's dressing down didn't distract from the more ominous prospect of US tariffs, which had been scheduled to drop 9 July until that deadline was pushed back to 1 August – probably, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was unable to firm up on details.
The bloc's point man on trade, Maroš Šefčovič, had been on numerous missions to Washington, in a bid to avoid a baseline duty of 50% on EU exports. But with the trade commissioner's efforts so far unfruitful, hopes for an agreeable deal sank throughout the week.
Fears for the worst started on Monday, as South Korea and Japan were handed a 25% blanket levy, despite Japanese negotiators having been seven times to Washington since April. Optimism faded further as Canada was served a fat 35% – and was cautioned not to retaliate.
Addressing MEPs on Wednesday, Šefčovič was fatalistic, only able to give assurances he would continue pushing for the best deal for Europe (ie. keep doing his job). The best-case scenario now seems a 10% deal, similar that secured by the UK, and which EU ministers had scoffed at when (some) time was still on our side.
At time of writing we are still waiting for Trump's letter. The Commission told journalists on midday Friday that "we’ve grown used to things happening very quickly, or not". And so we wait.
Schengen falters
The freedom of movement that goods and citizens enjoy thanks to the Schengen treaty is being unpicked, as various signatory nations impose border controls to stem the flow of refugees and migrants.
The Oder–Neisse line between Germany and Poland has become the most vigorously guarded border, as both countries enforce checks on vehicles, sparking delays and incurring costs to businesses. The issue has stoked anti-German sentiment in Poland, with far-right activists carrying out their own patrols to apprehend migrants.
Besides the annoyance for those crossing these borders, the economic repercussions are substantial, potentially impacting some 32 million businesses with additional bureaucratic costs. | 