| It’s a political conundrum that’s been plaguing Europe for a decade, and Croatia is getting a taste of it this week: A parliamentary election in the newest EU member pits a conservative party entrenched in power for almost a decade against a host of fragmented contenders, led by the fledgling Social Democrats. Neither option offers a viable economic programme, and neither is likely to win an absolute majority outright. It is essentially a duel between the conservative Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and the populist, pugnacious President Zoran Milanović, who announced in March he wants to lead the next cabinet. With a population of under four million and an economy of less than 0.5% of the EU’s total GDP, Croatia is hardly a European heavyweight. Still, Wednesday’s vote will be carefully watched as the outcome – though unlikely to change Zagreb’s economic course – might affect the balance in the European Council and its foreign policy. Milanović, a maverick former social democrat who embraced a brand of nationalist populism since becoming president in 2019, has given a last-minute lease of life to the otherwise moribund Social Democrats. The twist is that no one, including legal experts, is sure if the Constitution allows this because the head of state appoints the new prime minister-designate after the ballot. This means that should he emerge victorious, Milanović will either give himself the mandate, which is legally impossible, or resign as president, call presidential elections, and let his substitute—the parliament speaker—appoint the new premier. The country’s Constitutional Court ruled that he could not run in the campaign unless he resigned first. Still, he carried on regardless, campaigning primarily on the ticket of denouncing what he calls the endemic corruption of the ruling HDZ (EPP). | 