| . (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh) On Paul Ryan's home turf, Ted Cruz tried to nip the Ryan 2016 rumor boomlet in the bud today, "sharply warn[ing] his fellow Republicans Monday not to try to nominate a candidate for president who is not in the contest right now, saying that such a move would justifiably cause an uproar among party activists," Sean Sullivan reported from Madison, Wis. (less than an hour from the Speaker's hometown of Janesville.) "This fevered pipe dream of Washington, that at the convention they will parachute in some white knight who will save the Washington establishment — it is nothing less than a pipe dream," Cruz told reporters. "It ain't gonna happen. If it did, the people would quite rightly revolt." It's easy to see why they're tempted, says Callum Borchers. "High on the list of appealing things about an off-the-board pick is this: Ryan, or some other interloper, would be fresh to the media, too, having avoided an entire year (or more) of intense scrutiny." Of course, the alternative to a year of intense scrutiny would be...the same year of intense scrutiny, but packed into three or four months. So there's that. "Nominating a new candidate in July would send the media into a frenzy. Journalists would feel — quite rightly — that they have to air every piece of dirty laundry (and even the kind of laundry you wore for only a couple of hours and didn't even sweat in) all at once. The volume of critical media attention could be overwhelming," says Borchers. "If any negative story were to resonate with voters, there would be almost no time to recover." (Yes, Ryan was on the ticket in 2012, but "the scrutiny of a potential No. 2 simply can't compare to what it would be in line for the man at the top of a ticket.") TRUMPED?: He's finding Wisconsin a bit chilly. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast) But the fact that we're talking about this at all is one sign that "the 'Never Trump' movement may — despite the fact that it arrived well after Donald Trump had jumped out to a big delegate lead — actually end up working, and the nominee may very well be someone who so far hasn't won a vote. In fact, the timing of the Never Trump movement may have been about perfect," says Philip Bump. As the month begins, Trump is getting out-maneuvered at the delegate selection level. And he's heading into what may be a rough Wisconsin vote -- a night that could make the path to the 1,237 delegates he needs a much, much steeper one. (Without a surprise Wisconsin comeback, how tough is Trump's path to a pre-convention majority? Here's a handy tool to try to game it out. Don't feel bad if you can't figure it out -- it isn't any easier for the Trump campaign.) "Cruz is much better positioned than Trump and John Kasich on a second ballot at the convention — but if Trump doesn't get the nomination in early votes, more and more of those delegates will not be bound to anyone, Cruz included. Which is how you get to the Ryan scenario. "Trump's team has proven effective at keeping its hand on the steering wheel as Trump barrels down the straight, wide highway of primary voting. But it has no apparent ability to actually organize, much less out-organize the party. "...while it is dumb to say that Ryan has a '54 percent chance' of being the nominee, it is not dumb to say that he has some chance. As do any number of other people. "The problem with fighting the establishment in a presidential nomination contest isn't that you can't beat them. It's that the final boss battle happens on their turf with their rules. And they have a very good track record of winning." MORE CONVENTION #ANALYSIS: John Kasich is still far from ready to go gently into that good night. "We have one guy with no experience and the other guy whose experience amounts to shutting down the government and calling the majority leader a liar," he said on Long Island today, referring to Trump and Cruz. "We have to win delegates," he said. "You know, Abraham Lincoln didn’t do all that hot. I think he turned out president. And I don’t want to go all the way back to Abraham Lincoln, but we’ve had 10 contested Republican conventions where only three times did the leader get picked. I mean, when we get to the convention, they’re going to wonder, who can beat Hillary, which I consistently do, and they do not, and that’s why they are starting to trash me." Kasich called Cruz "Senator Ted, the smear artist," pointing to a new Cruz spot that directly attacks the Ohio governor -- an ad whose is existence "is read as evidence that Kasich has remained competitive in at least a few of Wisconsin's eight congressional districts, raising the prospect that he could take their winner-take-all delegate haul or that he could clear a path for Donald Trump to take them," reports Dave Weigel. A WORLD OF CHOICES, RANGING ALL THE WAY FROM 'ROCK' TO 'HARD PLACE': If Trump hangs on, new Democracy Corps poll numbers put the Dilemma of the Downballot Republican in sharp relief, says Chris Cillizza:
"Let's start with the left half of the chart. That shows that roughly one in four people not voting for the Democratic candidate for Congress would be less likely to support the generic GOP nominee if that candidate supported Trump. "Now look at the right half of the chart. It's the opposite of the question on the right side. Almost four in 10 voters who aren't going to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate would be less likely to support a Republican candidate if that candidate refused to support Trump as the party's presidential nominee. "In simple terms? Donald Trump puts downballot Republicans in a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't situation. Run away from Trump? Four in 10 people who want to vote for a Republican congressional candidate say it would make them less likely to do so. Run toward Trump? One in four likely Republican or Republican-leaning voters say that would make them less likely to be for you." WISCONSIN WALKUP: U.S. Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz makes a campaign stop at the Mars Cheese Castle in Kenosha, Wisconsin, United States, April 4, 2016. REUTERS/Jim Young Both front-runners are playing defense heading into Tuesday's Wisconsin primary. A reminder of the stakes: "A loss for Trump in particular could reset a Republican contest that has been dominated by his outsider candidacy and outsized media presence. Amid scrutiny following several high-profile stumbles, state polls show Trump in a tight race with rival Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), and have prompted speculation about whether Wisconsin could mark the beginning of the high-flying candidate’s downfall," report Jose A. DelReal, John Wagner and Anne Gearan. "...Winning Wisconsin, the only state to vote this week, would give Sanders a fresh dose of momentum — and perhaps new credibility for his claim that he still has a chance to catch Clinton in the delegate count and win the Democratic nomination." You'll be able to get tomorrow night's Wisconsin primary results here. Polls close in the state at 8 p.m. CT/9 p.m. ET Tuesday. THE BERNIE SANDERS WISCONSIN LABOR PITCH TODAY, IN THREE QUOTES: / AFP PHOTO / PHOTO DESKPHOTO DESK/AFP/Getty Images 1) “I am not a candidate who goes to the unions, goes to workers, then leaves and goes to a fundraiser on Wall Street.” 2) “I’m glad that she’s going around the country talking about the need for more manufacturing. Well that’s a great idea, but maybe she should have been there 20 or 30 years ago when we started hemorrhaging manufacturing jobs in this country largely because of the disastrous trade policy.” 3) “If we win here, we’re going to have a bounce going into New York state...If we win in New York state -- between you and me, I don’t want to get Hillary Clinton more nervous than she already is, so don’t tell her this -- but I think if we win here, we win in New York state, we’re on our way to the White House.” BROOKLYN, NY - APRIL 03: An audience sings and prays before U.S. Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton (D-NY) arrives to the Christian Cultural Center in Brooklyn, NY, on April 03, 2016. (Photo by Yana Paskova/For The Washington Post) As expected, the Clinton March fundraising figures officially announced Monday fell short of the Sanders haul. By a lot: $29.5 million, compared with the $44 million raised by the Vermont senator's campaign. She has $29 million cash on hand; the Sanders campaign hasn't released that figure. (The numbers the campaign would rather people focus on, via another memo from campaign manager Robby Mook today: "The delegate math is on our side.") THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN'S 'STATE OF THE RACE' PITCH, IN THREE MOOK QUOTES: 1) "Hillary Clinton has built a nearly insurmountable lead among both delegates and actual voters." 2) "For most of the campaign, Senator Sanders has criticized the role that superdelegates play in the nominating process, but as he now campaigns without a clear path [to] nomination that relies on the voters, he’s aggressively courting their support." 3) "Hillary Clinton is winning." THE VIEW FROM THE FIELD: Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton spent the day before the Wisconsin primary...in New York, and won't be holding an official watch event Tuesday night. Clinton and Sanders will debate at the Brooklyn Navy Yard on April 14, CNN announced today. Wisconsin primary or no, Ted Cruz doesn't do cheeseheads: "'There is an ironclad rule of politics which is no funny hats,' the Texas senator said Monday as he made his way through the sprawling Mars Cheese Castle here, stubbornly refusing to don the famous yellow foam triangles meant to look like a chunks of cheddar. 'And any hat is by definition defined as a funny hat.'" (This is true.) Donald Trump was interviewed by The Post's Bob Woodward and Robert Costa, and he had a lot to say.
TRAIL MIX: The Supreme Court rejected a conservative challenge to ‘one person, one vote’: The justices ruled that legislative districts could be based on total population and not only voting-age population. A decision the other way would have shifted political power away from urban areas and toward more Republican-friendly rural areas. --Appearing for Bernie Sanders at a campaign rally, actor Tim Robbins said today that Hillary Clinton's win in South Carolina was about as significant to a Democratic candidate as a victory in Guam. This isn't just a run-of-the-mill bad argument. It's a very, very bad one. Here's why. --Tonight in Milwaukee, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are holding rallies just three blocks away from each other. The Trump event is taking place right next to a circus, apparently. --Pennsylvania primer: GOP candidates, it looks like you can save the campaign cash and skip the statewide race -- there are only 54 votes that matter. The rest are ornamental, apparently. --Americans for Prosperity is launching a $1 million campaign touting Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) Also: Today, Donald Trump re-tweeted what may have been the most amazing fan-made campaign video of the race so far. It is best experienced rather than described, but here are two details that sum it up rather efficiently: It mimics the trailer for the video game Mass Effect 2. And it includes this testimonial as a chyron: "'Donald Trump is simply awe-inspiring' – all who gaze upon him" YOUR DAILY TRAIL PIT STOP: This is a Generic Presidential Campaign Ad. (“My advisers say that these sepia-toned photos of my parents are proof of my human origins.”) | | This Is a Generic Presidential Campaign Ad, by Dissolve |
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