| Polls close in Wisconsin at 8 p.m. CT/9 p.m. ET; you'll be able to follow live primary results here, and full coverage here. As always, we'll be keeping our eyes on crucial Waukesha County. (Who's joking? Not us.) A reminder of the stakes tonight, beyond the 42 GOP and 96 Democratic delegates up for grabs: "A loss for Trump in the GOP primary could reset a Republican contest that has been dominated by his outsider candidacy and outsize media presence. ... "Winning Wisconsin would give Sanders a fresh dose of momentum — and perhaps new credibility for his claim that he has a chance to catch Clinton in the delegate count and win the Democratic nomination." | | Here's what's at stake in the Wisconsin GOP primary |
A peek at the early exits, via Post polling director Scott Clement: Democrats are more excited about their candidates than Republicans are: Over 7 in 10 Democrats say they are “excited” or at least “optimistic” about Clinton and Sanders alike according to preliminary exit polling reported by ABC News, but no Republican candidate possesses such widespread positive reviews from GOP voters. Cruz tops the list with about 6 in 10 excited or optimistic, followed by just under half who are upbeat about John Kasich and barely 4 in 10 excited who are excited about Trump, the front-runner in delegates. Wisconsin Democrats want to continue Obama’s legacy. That’s a plus for Clinton: Just over half of Wisconsin Democrats say they want the next president to continue Obama’s policies according to preliminary exit poll data reported by NBC News, while about 3 in 10 prefer a more liberal direction and 1 in 10 percent want less liberal policies. That breakdown is nearly identical to the average across contests this year, where Clinton has won consistently large majorities of Democrats who want a continuation of the Obama administration’s policies. Sanders has performed especially well among voters seeking a more liberal agenda, and he’s also done well among those favoring “less liberal” policies, capturing Obama’s critics on the left and right. Far more Wisconsin Democrats say Sanders is honest than Clinton: Nine in 10 Democratic voters in Wisconsin say that Bernie Sanders is “honest and trustworthy,” according to ABC, compared with 6 in 10 who say the same of Hillary Clinton. And roughly one-third of Wisconsin Democrats cited honesty as their most important quality, according to CNN. Across exit polls in previous contests this year, an average of 27 percent of Democratic voters and caucus-goers said honesty was the most important quality in a president, with Sanders winning these voters over Clinton by an average 40 percentage points. Wauwatosa, Wisconsin. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images) Also in those early exits: Some not-so-great news for Trump, in what may be the most #NeverTrump state to date: "Preliminary exit-poll results reported by ABC News suggest that nearly half of Wisconsin Republicans are looking for a president with experience in politics. Half say the opposite — but that so many Republicans are willing to prioritize experience is not a good sign for Trump. "After all, in voting so far in earlier states, only about 4 in 10 Republicans looked for someone with experience, and only 8 percent of those voters backed the businessman. Among the half of voters who usually express interest in an outsider, Trump has gotten two-thirds of the vote.
"What's more, a large chunk of Wisconsin Republicans say that they are 'scared' of the prospect of a Trump presidency, again according to ABC News. Among Cruz and John Kasich supporters, that jumps to 6 in 10." Trump's magic number heading into tonight's results is about 61 percent; that's the percentage of remaining pledged delegates he needs to claim in upcoming primary contests to hit the 1,237 majority ahead of the convention. "That's a higher percentage than he needed a few weeks ago, because he didn't get as many pledged delegates in recent contests as he would have needed to stay on track," notes Philip Bump. "That is also why his likely loss in Wisconsin on Tuesday will be such a setback. If he needs 61 percent of pledged delegates and ends up getting shut out of the state's 42 delegates, the percentage of the remaining delegates that he needs to win jumps to 64 percent." #NeverTrump probably won't be popping the champagne just yet, though: "The question is: How likely is it that Trump will get that 61 percent of delegates — or, if he loses Wisconsin, that 64 percent? And the answer is: It's more possible than it might sound." For instance: if Trump breaks the 50 percent mark in the April 19 New York primary -- a not-inconceivable result -- he not only gets all the statewide delegates; a showing that strong would likely mean he would be able to nab a majority of delegates available at the congressional district level. And that sort of solid Trump showing in his home state could effectively erase any delegate deficit he might suffer tonight. Whether it would entirely counter the effect of a potential two-week Cruz victory lap -- that's another question. SHINY OBJECT ALERT: La Crosse, Wisconsin (REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski) Donald Trump has often said that as president, he'll make Mexico pay for a border wall with the United States. He's never said precisely how he'd make that happen. Until now. He would do it, according to a two-page memo he sent The Washington Post, by "threatening to cut off the flow of billions of dollars in payments that immigrants send home to the country, an idea that could decimate the Mexican economy and set up an unprecedented showdown between the United States and a key regional ally," report Bob Woodward and Robert Costa. "The proposal would jeopardize a stream of cash that many economists say is vital for Mexico’s struggling economy. But the feasibility of Trump’s plan is unclear both legally and politically, and it would test the bounds of a president’s executive powers in seeking to pressure another country," they write. (Here's more on the math behind the plan.) Milwaukee. (REUTERS/Jim Young) This is the part where we note that that right now, Donald Trump would much rather have people talk about the wall than about Wisconsin, or about reports of major campaign disarray and layoffs, or about the epically lousy week he just had. And so it's also worth noting that there's more where that came from. A lot more. Trump, "facing a likely setback in Tuesday's Wisconsin primary, plans to shift gears in the coming weeks, and give a series of policy speeches in settings more formal than the freewheeling rallies that have become his political signature," Karen Tumulty and Robert Costa report. "Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski said in an interview Tuesday that a memo published by The Washington Post detailing how Trump plans to get Mexico to pay for his proposed border wall is a prelude to a series of moves that flesh out the policies that Trump has been speaking about in general terms in his rallies and in interviews. "Among the topics he will address are how to strengthen the nation's military, specific education reforms and the criteria by which a President Trump would select Supreme Court justices. The campaign hopes to stage those speeches in settings such as economic clubs in various cities and possibly the National Press Club in Washington, Lewandowski said." Stay tuned. MORE CAMPAIGN #MATH: (Photo by Darren Hauck/Getty Images) On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders might well walk away from Wisconsin Tuesday night with more pledged delegates than Hillary Clinton. But he won't leave the state much closer to the Democratic nomination. Here's a reminder of the cold, hard campaign #math in one chart, ahead of tonight's results: To put it another way (via ABC's Ryan Struyk): OVERHEARD ON THE TRAIL: Candidates, don't try this at home. OVERHEARD, PART II: It's hard to pick this year's most irritating campaign trend, but this one has got to be near the top of the list.
TRAIL MIX: Your biggest contested GOP convention questions answered, here. --Some reports of Election Day trouble in crucial Waukesha are greatly exaggerated. --Hillary Clinton says Donald Trump doesn’t understand how to run for president. --President Obama said Tuesday that he routinely has to respond to international concerns about what GOP presidential hopefuls have had to say on world issues so far: "I think that I’ve been very clear earlier that I am getting questions constantly from foreign leaders about some of the wackier suggestions that are being made," he told reporters. "I do have to emphasize that it’s not just Mr. Trump’s proposals. You're also hearing concerns about Mr. Cruz’s proposals." --A timeline of Ted Cruz's evolving joke about Chuck Norris's pajamas. --Meet Trump's television army. --We will not include that speculative photo of what Donald Trump might look like without his tan. But we will link to it, in case anyone hasn't seen it, and for some reason wants to. YOUR DAILY TRAIL PIT STOP: If you live in D.C., and you're anything like us, you worked through yesterday's double rainbow. Either way: who doesn't love a good double rainbow? Nobody, that's who. So here's a lookback: | 