Two points of consensus have emerged amid the recent torrent of analysis on the potential impact of a US-China trade war on Europe. First, the repercussions would be negative. Second, they should be described using aquatic metaphors.

Policymakers and journalists, however, diverge in their assessment of just how apocalyptic – and watery – these effects might be.

EU officials’ language has remained relatively dry, warning simply of a possible “wave” of Chinese goods that could “hit us here in Europe” after bouncing off the US “tariff wall.”

Media outlets, by contrast, have drenched their reporting in doom-laden prophecies and occasionally nonsensical literary flourishes.

The New York Times, for instance, has claimed that the imminent “flood” – or “tsunami” – of redirected Chinese exports could trigger an “economic disaster” in Europe.

Others feel such language is insufficiently critical of Beijing’s state-led industrial model. Deutsche Welle has exhorted EU policymakers to confront the impending “overcapacity tsunami” threatening European manufacturers.

Indeed, journalists’ hydro-literary impulse is so strong that the metaphors often end up making little sense. Politico has warned that a “wave” of Chinese goods could “pour toward” Europe as a result of Donald Trump’s sweeping levies.

All this tidal imagery can leave readers – and less literary journalists – caught in the undertow. Is the standard “dumping” metaphor too suggestive of defecation?

But let’s put all this spilled milk under the bridge. Isn’t it true that Trump’s tariffs could divert hundreds of billions of euros’ worth of Chinese goods toward Europe, sounding the death knell for Europe’s long-suffering industries?

Bloated fears

One recent study suggests not.

An analysis by Bruegel, a Brussels-based EU policy think tank, examined the €376 billion in goods sold by China to the US in 2023.

As a “proxy” for European exporters’ exposure to Chinese dumping, the analysts calculated the ratio of Chinese exports to the US to the bloc’s total exports across various product categories.

The conclusion? There are, indeed, risks in certain strategic EU sectors, such as battery production. But the most vulnerable EU product categories – such as umbrellas, wickerwork, and toys – are strategically irrelevant and represent a trivial proportion of the bloc’s total output.

The “fear of trade diversion from China is likely exaggerated,” the authors note.

There are two main reasons for this.

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