The fate of 2024

Donald Trump failed to push aside President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory and the 81.2 million American voters who elected him. But many followers of the twice-impeached Republican never stopped trying. Not only has the GOP pursued a nationwide effort to restrict voting access, but some in the party are looking to twist the election system into one that returns Trump to power (if he runs) whether he wins or not. Republicans who justified their efforts by falsely claiming election fraud have themselves sought to remove state officials who wouldn’t manufacture fake votes. They have changed the way elections are run in response to Trump’s conspiracy theories and nominated people for high office who parrot what’s come to be known as the “Big Lie.” Those candidates, for Congress and governor, could soon be in a position to certify the outcome of the 2024 election. With the next presidential campaign forming up, a team of Bloomberg journalists set out to find which states are most vulnerable to election interference—and what it means for voting this fall and in 2024. The bumper-sticker version of what we found: The 2022 vote should be fine. But 2024? Maybe not. Trump and his followers are pushing gubernatorial candidates who deny Biden’s victory—more than enough of them to (if they win) tilt a close race away from a winner. The future of US democracy it seems may rest with these five states. —Natasha Solo-Lyons

Bloomberg is tracking the coronavirus pandemic and the progress of global vaccination efforts.

Retail traders who lurk in forums like Reddit’s WallStreetBets are back to betting against Wall Street pros and the Fed, as rallies for meme stocks like Bed Bath & Beyond and AMC show shades of last year’s mania.

Consumer expectations for US inflation over the coming years declined sharply in the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, a finding that may ease the Fed’s concern about high prices getting baked in to household behavior.

Stocks had a hard time finding direction after a three-week rally, with a gloomy forecast from Nvidia weighing on tech shares and traders awaiting inflation data for clues on the pace of Fed rate hikes. Nvidia tumbled almost 6.5%, weighing heavily on chipmakers. Here’s your markets wrap.

House Democrats had threatened to block Biden’s massive climate and healthcare plan unless it removed what they say was a targeted attack on Democratic-leaning states back in 2017. As part of a tax cut package that largely benefitted the rich and corporations, the then-GOP controlled Senate capped deductions for state and local taxes, hurting residents of higher-taxed blue states most. But now those Democrats are signaling they’ll take one for the team and back Biden’s “Inflation Reduction Act.”

Beijing has shown a willingness to seize on perceived missteps by its rivals to tighten its grip over disputed territory. That’s now playing out around Taiwan. In recent days, the Chinese army has sought to establish a new status quo on Taiwan with a series of exercises in the wake of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit. It’s Xi Jinping’s “new normal.”

From the Suwalki Gap to the Taiwan Strait, the US military faces no shortage of potential crises. But perhaps its biggest challenge lies close to home: A dwindling number of Americans are able and willing to serve in uniform. Michael R. Bloomberg writes in Bloomberg Opinion that, to maintain the military’s edge, the Pentagon needs to rethink how it recruits and retains troops—while also preparing to fight future wars with a leaner active-duty force.

Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey tweeted the words “end the CCP” over the weekend in response to a report about China’s strict Covid-19 measures. Dorsey tweeted his terse message, ostensibly referring to China’s Communist Party, while quoting a CNN report about the rigorous testing and app-based contact tracing implemented by Beijing.

As the US housing market slows from an early pandemic-frenzy, the San Francisco area stands to be among the hardest-hit places. Higher mortgage rates are driving up the cost of ownership and fewer people are willing or able to pay a premium to live in the country’s most expensive region. And the area’s wealth economy is shuddering under the weight of tech-industry layoffs, falling stock prices and plunging cryptocurrencies.

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