| | | | Friday, January 31, 2025 | | 54 days until Opening Day ... | | Nobody likes to be negative, but you've got to be in this line of work. It's part of the job. Every player you draft definitionally means there are countless others you didn't draft; by the end of your draft, you've got your 20-some-odd players, and 200-plus you didn't draft. Of course, there's a difference between "I didn't draft this player" and "I won't draft this player" and our bust picks are where that line lands. | | Generally, take Lawrence Butler, for example. I want to draft him, but I haven't found the opportunity to do so yet because, while I have him as my 80th player, he's going off the board closer to 65th or earlier. That may not sound like a huge gap, but at that point in the draft, it often means I would be taking him a round or two earlier than I want to. That's tough to justify, even for a player who I, again, want to like. | | Don't take these bust picks to mean we don't like these players. I actually considered making Butler both a breakout and bust pick to highlight that, while I can certainly see the upside, there are also a lot of ways that could go wrong. I didn't go that route, but I thought about it, and there will still likely be times when I end up with Butler – or some of my other "bust" picks – on my teams this season. | | | | There's less consensus with the Fantasy Baseball Today team's bust picks than our sleeper or breakout picks, with only two players making all three lists from Scott White, Frank Stampfl, and I, and only three others making at least two of three: | | Willy Adames, SS, Giants (all three) Jacob deGrom, SP, Rangers (all three) Mark Vientos, 3B, MetsPete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs Chris Sale, SP, Braves | | Earlier in the week, I gave you our sleeper and breakout picks, and now it's time to get to our bust picks. Before we do, though, make sure you head over to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast to check out a full discussion of our favorite sleeper, breakout, and bust calls for the upcoming season: | | | | And now, let's focus on who we're avoiding in 2025: | | | | Busts 1.0 | | | | Chris Towers' Busts | | Head here for my full list of busts, and here are a few who made the cut for me: | | Mark Vientos, 3B, Mets – ADP: 86.9 | | If the Mets really do stand firm on not bringing Alonso back, the bust case for Vientos does become harder to make, simply because hitting behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto could put Vientos in line for tons of RBI opportunities. The ceiling here could be very high if Vientos repeats his 2024 breakout … I just don't know that he will. Vientos' breakout was fueled in large part by improvement in plate discipline, allowing him to put his excellent raw power into play more often. However, though Vientos' plate discipline was improved in 2024 … it was still pretty bad! His zone contact rate of 75% was 197 among 207 players with at least 400 PA, while his chase rate of 32% was in just the 22nd percentile among the same group. Vientos has the power to make the most of the contact he makes, but his underlying stats suggest there was still some good fortune to end up with the numbers he did in 2024 – his .356 wOBA outpaced his .331 expected wOBA, the seventh-biggest gap of any hitter. Vientos' circumstances could make him a star, but there are a lot of ways this could go really wrong. | | | | Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs – ADP: 137.7 | | Here's something scary about Crow-Armstrong: He's one of the very few players who actually ranked lower than Vientos in those plate discipline metrics I cited just now. And Crow-Armstrong doesn't have the high-level quality of contact metrics to make up for it. What he does have going for him is arguably best-in-baseball speed and centerfield defense, which should mostly insulate him from playing time risk, which is nice. But Crow-Armstrong seems likely to be buried in the bottom of the Cubs lineup, and might just be a one-category contributor in 2025. In an era where steals are as plentiful as they are right now, you're better off waiting for Victor Robles (ADP: 196) or Cedric Mullins (219.2) for your steals. | | Roki Sasaki, SP, Dodgers – ADP: 83.4 | | I've been banging the "Sasaki's risk is being overlooked" drum for months, and I think everyone is about to catch up to me. During his intro press conference with the Dodgers, Sasaki confirmed that he dealt with elbow and shoulder issues in his time in Japan, and was even given a recommendation for Tommy John surgery at one point four years ago. He has avoided that outcome since, but it's not like it's been smooth sailing since – hence why I've been talking about the risk here for some time now. Sasaki has made just 33 starts over the past two seasons – about 60% of what he would have made without injuries – and has never thrown more than 130 innings in a season. That would be worrisome enough, but it also comes with a near two-mph drop in fastball velocity last season. Sasaki could be an impact starter right away, but given the obvious injury concerns, the workload limitations he's going to face, and how unproven he is, I can't justify drafting him 30 picks ahead of Tyler Glasnow, given his similar upside and downside risks. | | Scott White's Busts | | Head here for Scott's full list of busts. | | Jacob deGrom, SP, Rangers | | deGrom's price (ADP: 41.7) is beyond stupid. What are we doing here? For all of my misgivings about Chris Sale's injury history, he at least just proved to us he could hold together long enough to function as a Fantasy ace still. Jacob deGrom hasn't done that since, um ... 2019? And while I've already mentioned that Sale's injuries have largely been of the fluky variety, that's not the case for deGrom, who may be the poster child for pitchers whose actual physique can't hold up to the max-effort style of pitching demanded by today's game. | | The sad part is that deGrom was an ace even before going max-effort, winning a pair of Cy Youngs. But his average fastball velocity jumped a couple miles per hour in 2020, and he hasn't thrown even 100 innings in a season since, with every single injury being to his throwing elbow or shoulder. I get that his per-inning production has been God-like, and let's presume that it still will be as a 36-year-old coming back from Tommy John surgery. Even then, the ADP here is so pie-in-the-sky as to qualify as psychosis. | | Willy Adames, SS, Giants | | I'm not denying how good Adames was in 2024, ranking as a top-15 hitter in both 5x5 and points scoring. I'm wondering what made him so good when he had an established track record of being an order of magnitude worse than that. | | Sure, mid-career breakouts happen sometimes, but they're usually accompanied by some sort of skill change. A quick glance at his Statcast page reveals no such change, though. His average exit velocity was still just 40th percentile. It as well as his strikeout and walk rates were perfectly in line with career norms. Same for his .243 xBA and .461 x SLG. He wasn't measurably better at elevating or pulling the ball. He just had a lot go right, it seems like, resulting in his highest batting average since 2021 and career highs in most everything else. | | The one possible skill change is with regard to base-stealing, which isn't to say he got any faster, but he may have learned a year later than most of the league how to exploit the new rules aimed at increasing stolen bases. Even if we presume it continues, which is a big "if" for a guy who never had even double-digit stolen bases previously, everything else points to him reverting to the .235-hitting, 25-homer guy we knew prior to 2024. And that's who he was in Milwaukee, one of the better places to hit. His move to league's worst home run park surely lowers his baseline. | | Frank Stampfl's Busts | | Head here for Frank's full list of busts. | | Jazz Chisholm, 3B/OF, Yankees | | This one hurts. Not only am I a Yankees fan but I like Jazz Chisholm. He plays the game with flair and swag. It rubs some people the wrong way, but not me. The problem with drafting Jazz in Fantasy is that he's a boom-or-bust player who'll likely cost you a third-round pick. He has tremendous upside and flashed that with the Yankees. In 46 games with the Bronx Bombers, Jazz hit .273 with 11 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and an .825 OPS. That's a 150-game pace of 35 homers and 58 steals! If he comes anywhere close to that, we're talking about Jazz as a first-round pick next year. The problem is that he has a considerable injury history. | | Jazz had a career year last season because he was able to stay on the field. The truth is he's only played more than 124 games once in four full seasons. He's dealt with some nasty injuries, too. Back in 2022, Jazz was limited to 60 games because of a stress fracture in his back. Then in 2023, he was limited to 97 games with turf toe, which he had surgery on after the season. After getting traded to the Yankees, Jazz landed on the Injured List with a sprained UCL in his left elbow. After returning from the injury, he had a rough September, which carried over into the postseason. While Jazz did hit two homers with six steals in 14 playoff games, he hit just .182 with a .559 OPS. I don't mind boom-or-bust players. I just prefer to get them in the mid-to-late rounds. If Jazz hits his upside, I'll look foolish. I'm just not expecting it given his injury track record. | | Chris Sale, SP, Braves | | I have lots of questions regarding Chris Sale, but before we address those, I have to discuss a mental hurdle of my own. Last year Sale's ADP was 132.6. He went on to have a stellar season, earning the National League Cy Young award. Now his ADP is 38.6. I can't help but shake the classic Fantasy cliché of buy-low and sell-high. The time to draft Sale was last year when he was outside the Top-100 picks. This cost is much harder to stomach, and for good reason! Sale has an extensive injury history, some injuries more fluky than others. Just last year his season ended prematurely due to back spasms. Sale couldn't even pitch in the Braves' Wild Card series. | | There were signs he was pitching through something towards the end, too. Sale averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball last season. In three of his final four starts, Sale averaged under 94 MPH on the pitch. In his final start, his fastball was all the way down to 92.7 MPH. Maybe he just wore down towards the end? It's possible. Sale threw 177.2 innings last year, his most since 2017. How will his arm respond this year? Can he maintain Cy Young form over the course of a full season again at 36 years old? I think they're legitimate questions when you consider Sale's injury history and the fact that he just ended last season hurt. I'm betting against a repeat, and am thus avoiding in the third or fourth round of drafts. | | | | | | | | PGA Tour | | College Basketball | Some of the best in golf tee off at the sandy shores of Pebble Beach this Saturday and Sunday at 3 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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