| | | | Tuesday, January 28, 2025 | | 57 days until Opening Day ... | | What's a sleeper? There's an "I know it when I see it" quality to the phrase, but of course, everyone has their own definition. | | The definition my colleagues, Scott White and Frank Stampfl settled on is both straightforward and a little nebulous: They're looking for players who are, quite literally, being slept on. Undervalued, in other words. That could mean a player with over $100,000,000 million in career earnings, an MVP award, and an ADP inside of the first 10 rounds, like Cody Bellinger. After all, he was close to a top-50 pick this time last year and suddenly finds himself in a much better situation after an offseason trade to the Yankees. | | So, yeah, he counts, and yeah, he's on Scott's list of 2025 sleepers. Or, you could go with a much less proven option which will also cost a lot less in drafts. | | Like Matt Shaw! He's not exactly an unknown quantity if you follow prospects -- he is the No. 3 prospect entering the season, per Scott's top-100 -- but he's not someone Fantasy drafts are beating down the door to snag ... yet. In the month of January so far, his ADP sits at 212.5 in NFBC drafts, not exactly a freebie, but not much of an investment for a guy who could be the Cubs Opening Day third baseman coming off a season where he hit .284/.379/.488 and made it to Triple-A. A big Spring Training could push his price much higher, but for now, yeah, he certainly counts as a sleeper, and he made Frank's list. | | | | There is no one definition, and we're all taking a different approach to the question. I like to set some ground rules for myself, so when I put together my list of sleepers for the 2025 season, I specifically target players with an early ADP outside of the top 200. When I update the list later on in the spring, I might update that to give myself a bit more leeway in who I want to focus on, but right now, I like to focus on guys who I truly think are the best values in the later rounds in drafts. | | And yet, despite our disparate definitions, there was certainly some consensus on our picks. The following six players were tabbed as a sleeper by at least two of Scott, Frank, and I: | | Ivan Herrera, C, CardinalsKristian Campbell, 2B, Red SoxBrandon Lowe, 2B, Rays Carlos Correa, SS, Twins Michael Conforto, OF, DodgersIsaac Paredes, 3B, Astros | | For the record, Herrera, Campbell, Lowe, Correa, and Conforto were all on my list, and I'd be happy to include Paredes if I do expand my criteria to include players inside of the top 200 -- with a January ADP of 195.1, he's not far, despite landing in the absolute perfect spot for his lift-and-pull approach as a hitter. | | In the rest of today's newsletter, I've got more sleeper picks from Scott, Frank, and I, starting with three of my favorite picks for the later rounds (at least for now): | | | | Sleepers 1.0 | | | | Chris Towers' Sleepers | | Head here for my full list of sleepers, and here are a few who made the cut for me: | | Ivan Herrera, C, Cardinals | | With the Cardinals moving Willson Contreras to first base full-time for 2025, there's an opportunity for their intriguing young catching tandem of Herrera and Pedro Pages to step up, and that's exciting news for Fantasy. Pages isn't without sleeper appeal of his own – basically, any cheap catcher with conceivable upside has some sleeper appeal – but he's probably more likely to bring value with his glove than his bat. But Herrera brings legitimate upside as a hitter, even beyond his very solid .301/.373/.428 line as a part-timer in 2024. Herrera looks like he might have legitimately above-average power, and not just for a catcher – his .366 expected wOBA in 2024 was well above the league average for all hitters, as was his .160 expected ISO. Pair it with good plate discipline and swing decisions, and you don't have to squint too much to see a legitimate top-five outcome at the position here. | | | | Kristian Campbell, 2B, Red Sox | | Look, I'm not totally opposed to the idea of giving Vaughn Grissom another chance, something the Red Sox are reportedly at least considering ahead of Spring Training . And if Grissom comes out in Spring Training and wins the job, hey, more power to him. But let's be honest: The Red Sox absolutely cannot afford to be complacent about the second base spot in their lineup, because it was an absolute disaster in 2024 – their second basemen collectively had just a 45 wRC+, the worst mark by any team at the position since the 2021 Orioles. If the Red Sox want to be serious about contending in 2025, they can't have a black hole in the lineup like that again. | | The good news is, they have a viable backup plan now in case Grissom looks overmatched again. And, frankly, Campbell should probably just be the Plan A at this point. He doesn't have a long track record, but he just put together one of the most impressive seasons by anyone in the minors in 2024, hitting .330/.439/.558 while getting all the way to Triple-A and more than holding his own. He's a universal top-20 prospect (at least), and while I can see the case for giving him a bit more time in the minors to prove it was 100% for real – he only played 19 games at Triple-A and only 75 above A ball – Campbell might be the team's best option for the keystone right now. It shouldn't be long before we see him there one way or the other. | | Carlos Correa, SS, Twins | | Let's go with another seemingly boring old guy who might not actually be all that boring. Correa has had trouble staying healthy over the past few years, a problem that isn't likely to get better in his 30s, which is why he's being drafted around 250th overall these days. But when Correa was on the field last season, he was still a force, hitting .310/.388/.517, with a 25-homer, near-100-RBI-and-run pace. You can expect some time on the IL at this point in Correa's career, but he still looks like a must-start option when he's on the field, and you just don't get many of those around 250 in ADP. Take one when he's there. | | Scott White's Sleepers | | Head here for Scott's full list of sleepers. | | Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Yankees | | "How do I justify calling Bellinger a sleeper only a year after calling him a bust? Location, location, location. If there's one venue that can salvage a left-handed slugger whose exit velocities have gone down the drain, it's Yankee Stadium, home to the most famous short porch in baseball. The Yankees themselves must realize this, acquiring Bellinger from the Cubs this offseason, and just like that, I'm seeing his improbable 2023 -- when he hit .307 with 26 homers, 20 steals, and an .881 OPS to re-enter the MVP conversation -- in an entirely new light. | | The prevailing sentiment going into last year was that there was no way he'd repeat it, hence the bust call. His average exit velocity ranked in the bottom quarter of the league, his max exit velocity in the bottom half, and his hard-hit rate in the bottom 10 percent. Home runs are still possible with that profile, but only when the hitter sells out for them, consistently lofting the ball toward the shortest part of the outfield fence. Bellinger has the lofting part down, his fly-ball rate regularly exceeding 40 percent, and pulls those fly balls at a nice rate as well, but Wrigley Field is notoriously deep at the foul poles, placing it among the worst venues for such a hitter. Isaac Paredes found this out last year (more on him in a bit). | | Fittingly, Bellinger came back down to earth in 2024 as the same batted-ball profile yielded more mathematically feasible results, but again, that was at Wrigley Field and not Yankee Stadium, where Statcast estimates Bellinger would have hit six more home runs. I suspect it'll be more once he gets in a groove there, his swing being naturally geared for pull-side power. If he can get back to the 25-30 range and remain reasonably healthy, then the other numbers will improve as well, putting that 2023 stat line back in reach (only at a lower price tag this time)." | | Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays | | "Bichette has been more or less a stud since the time he entered the league six years ago, so what's he doing in a sleepers article? Hey, that's what I want to know. I actually thought he was overrated back when we were drafting him Rounds 1, 2, and 3 -- like, you know, just last year -- but to see him go in Round 12 all of a sudden makes me question my sanity. | | I did say he's been more or less a stud from the beginning, and well, last year he was less. But normally, players with his sort of track record get a pass for the rare misstep. He'll only be 27 this year, for goodness' sake, and actually has a pretty good explanation in that he tried playing through a calf injury that twice landed him on the IL. The core metrics haven't changed. His contact quality was down a bit, but to a level where we've seen him thrive before (see 2020). He wasn't missing on pitches inside the zone or chasing pitches outside of it -- not any more than usual, anyway. Altogether, it seems like we should just chalk it up as a lost season and not look too much deeper into it. | | So that's how I was approaching it before any ADP data became available, slotting Bichette about 70th in my rankings. Again, I thought he was overrated in Rounds 1-3. His base-stealing days are long behind him, and his emphasis on hitting the ball the other way has rendered him more of a 20-homer guy than a 30-homer. But one thing we could always count on him to deliver was batting average. He had never hit less than .290 prior to last year, and with good health, I expect him to return to that standard. To see him go twice as low as I rank him -- behind Anthony Volpe , of all people, who's an obvious liability for batting average -- tells me that people believe Bichette is catastrophically broken. I don't see the evidence for it." | | Frank Stampfl's Sleepers | | Head here for Frank's full list of sleepers. | | Josh Lowe, OF, Rays | | "Let's rewind to a year ago. Josh Lowe was coming off a breakout 2023 where he hit .292 with 20 home runs and 32 steals. He finished 44th overall in Roto and averaged 3.1 Fantasy points per game, tied for 15th among outfielders. As a result, Lowe was being drafted as a top-75 pick in early drafts. Then disaster struck as Lowe was diagnosed with a right oblique strain during spring training. He landed on the Injured List twice last season and was limited to just 106 games. Honestly, I don't think he was ever right. As we know, oblique injuries are extremely tricky for baseball players to overcome. Despite playing hurt, Lowe still managed 10 homers with 25 steals across 106 games, not completely useless. | | I think Lowe bounces back this season, closer to the player he was in 2023. I'm not sure he has huge raw power but I think there are reasons for optimism. Even with the injuries last season, Lowe posted a career-high 90.8 MPH average exit velocity, which ranked in the 76th percentile. On top of that, the Rays are playing their home games in George M. Steinbrenner Field this upcoming season. GMS Field has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, including that short porch in right field. According to Statcast, Yankee Stadium is the third-best ballpark when it comes to left-handed power. Lowe looks like a strong bet to post a career-high in homers this season while providing 30-plus steals. Look for Lowe as your OF3 in Roto/category leagues but more of a bench piece in H2H points." | | Parker Meadows, OF, Tigers | | "Parker Meadows is a name we've heard about for a while now. He was a second-round pick by the Tigers back in 2018 and the younger brother of former Major Leaguer, Austin Meadows . Parker got called up late in 2023, showed off a little power and speed, and earned some late-round buzz in drafts last offseason. It didn't exactly work out. Meadows got off to a bad start, hitting .096 with a .443 OPS and 38% strikeout rate in his first 32 games. No surprise but he was sent back to Triple-A, where he crushed. In 51 games with the Toledo Mud Hens, Meadows slashed .292/.388/.495 with eight homers and 19 steals. The Tigers recalled Meadows in July where he instantly hurt his hamstring. | | Meadows returned in early August and played well. Over his final 47 games, he hit .296 with six homers, five steals, and an .840 OPS. He kept his strikeout rate to a very manageable 21% during this stretch. Meadows played so well, he was moved up to the leadoff spot against right-handed pitching. He kept that job throughout the Tigers' miraculous run in the playoffs. If everything clicks, Meadows should lead off again with plus speed and decent power. I actually think there's playing time upside, too. It's a small sample but Meadows has performed well against left-handed pitching in his career. In 91 plate appearances against lefties, he's hit .266 with a .737 OPS and 111 wRC+. My guess is Meadows will provide a lower batting average in the .240-.250 range but can pop 15-20 homers with 25-30 steals and a lot of runs scored leading off for the Tigers. Target him as your OF3/4 in Roto/category leagues and a bench piece in H2H points formats." | | | | | | | | Matchday Mayhem | | Champions Club | Eighteen matches all at once?! Kick off a thrilling end to the League Phase of the UEFA Champions League tomorrow at 3 PM ET with every match streaming live on Paramount+.
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