| | | | Wednesday, July 26, 2023 | | One of my favorite sleepers so far in Fantasy Football drafts may not qualify for much longer. | | I've been a big fan of drafting Skyy Moore this offseason, especially when his price has been significantly cheaper than Kadarius Toney's throughout the process – as of Tuesday, Toney's ADP in NFC leagues was 81.9, while Moore's was 128.9. If you wanted to bet on one of the wide receivers with early-round draft pedigree and a limited NFL track record, Moore made a lot more sense than Toney at that price. | | However, with Toney undergoing a clean-up procedure on his knee – the second since the end of last season – that has his availability for at least the preseason in doubt, attention is likely to shift to Moore. In a 0.5-PPR mock draft we did Tuesday, Moore jumped up 100th overall, and I'd be surprised if he even lasts that long in most drafts moving forward. | | | | So, of course, I pivoted my late-round attention to the other early-round wide receiver in Kansas City, as I took rookie second-rounder Rashee Rice 142nd overall in that one. When there's ambiguity in a high-profile offense, I'm just going to focus on whoever is cheapest, and that's going to be Rice now. He's going to be one of my favorite sleepers now, just as Moore was prior to the Toney injury. | | Today's newsletter is all about sleepers. Everyone's definition of a sleeper is different, but I'm going with a fairly straightforward one for my picks today: Anyone with an ADP outside of the top 100 right now. In some instances, that might mean someone who is barely going outside of the top 100, but I'm also going deeper than that; one of my picks has an ADP north of 200 right now. | | I also have the latest sleeper picks from Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings in today's newsletter, and tomorrow we'll be focusing on bust candidates. We'll head into the weekend with breakout picks Friday morning. Those guys aren't necessarily using the same definition of a sleeper as I am, which is OK; the point isn't to have unanimity, as much as it's to highlight players we think might be getting overlooked in drafts right now. The range of potential outcomes for these players is wide – some could be must-start players while some might just be low-end options to plug into your lineup – but we think all of them have a pretty good chance of surprising your league-mates with how useful they can be. | | Here are our latest, favorite sleeper picks: | | | | My Sleepers | | Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals (155.84 ADP) | | Murray has said he's hoping to be ready for Week 1, but seeing as that'll be just over nine months since he had surgery to repair his ACL, that might be asking too much. We should see him sometime early in the season, though he probably won't look like himself for a while – we know how important rushing is to his game – so you shouldn't draft Murray expecting him to be an impact Fantasy option early on. But he could certainly end up being one eventually, and he makes perfect sense as a late-round stash who could end up being a must-start Fantasy option for the most important parts of the season. Murray hasn't emerged as the elite QB we hoped he would be, but he averaged 22.7 points per game in his 10 healthy games last season (would have been QB5), and averaged 24.8 per game in 2021. | | Antonio Gibson, RB, Commands (104.11) | | Gibson saw his role dramatically diminished in the second half of last season as Brian Robinson's role grew, though I think a number of lower-body injuries, including a foot injury that ultimately required surgery after the season, probably played a bigger role than we knew at the time. Gibson's career has been defined by cycles of hype and disappointment, so I'm taking all of the talk about him being a "matchup nightmare" with the grain of salt they deserve. That being said, new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy's offense is expected to feature the running backs in the passing game plenty, and Gibson is the only back on the roster who had more than nine targets last season. Could he earn 65-70 targets while still getting close to 10 carries per game? That seems reasonable, and it could make him a must-start PPR back if things break right. | | | | Rashaad Penny, RB, Eagles (118.84) | | With an ADP more than 50 picks ahead of Penny, the Fantasy community is assuming D'Andre Swift will be the lead back for the Eagles. I'm less convinced. Sure, Penny's injury history is always going to depress his price, but I'm pretty sure Penny is a better runner than Swift – he's third in yards per carry (min. 300 attempts) since entering the NFL, and has been a standout in the NFL's NextGenStats like Rush Yards Over Expected, while Swift has been fairly pedestrian in that regard. I don't think Penny is a good bet for even 200 carries, but I think he has a better chance to be the lead back – especially near the goal line – than his price indicates. Whether I'm going zero-RB or drafting iffy early-season guys like Javonte Williams, Penny is one of my favorite post-100 targets. | | Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers (100.73) | | Between Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler , there hasn't been a ton of room for anyone else to thrive in this Chargers offense in recent years. That could change in 2023, partially because of new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and partially because the Chargers haven't had a complementary piece like Johnston. The Chargers figure to remain one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league with Moore taking over as offensive coordinator, but it should be an even more productive passing offense as Moore will likely push Justin Herbert to be more aggressive in pushing the ball down the field – Herbert's intended air yards fell to 6.4, one of the lowest marks in the league a year ago. That should benefit Johnston, who has the size and speed to be a deep threat in the NFL, however he also fills a niche in this offense neither Allen nor Williams does as an after-the-catch playmaker who can thrive on jet sweeps and WR screens. Johnston probably needs an injury to either Allen or Williams to be a must-start Fantasy option, but he could be a boom-or-bust WR4, and those are always nice to have around on your bench. | | Michael Thomas, WR, Saints (114.31) | | You know the story by now. "If Thomas can stay healthy" has become one of the biggest ifs in the game, as he has played just 10 games over three seasons since setting the single-season receptions record in 2019. However, it's not like he's been bad in that time – his per-17 game pace in those 10 games is 95 catches, 1,035 yards and five touchdowns. No, it's not superstar production, and we're unlikely to ever see that again from Thomas at this point – Chris Olave is the superstar in the Saints passing game now – but it would be a pretty terrific outcome from someone going this late. I don't know if Thomas can stay healthy, but Saints coach Dennis Allen confirmed Tuesday that Thomas is healthy for the start of training camp, at least. That's good enough for me at this point. | | Rondale Moore, WR, Cardinals (146.01) | | I kind of love targeting the Cardinals passing game this season, because the general assumption seems to be that they're going to be one of the worst in the league. That means they don't have to be all that good to provide a nice return on investment, and that's especially true of Moore, who was actually quietly useful for Fantasy last season. From Weeks 5 through 10, he averaged 14.1 PPR points per game in between bouts with injuries. He seems like he'll be the clear No. 2 option in this offense, and a nice short-area safety valve for whoever is playing QB. Moore was second among all receivers with 50-plus targets in yards after the catch per reception at 6.9 a year ago, so he's already shown he can be a playmaker with the ball in his hands. I'm a big fan of snagging Moore late in PPR leagues. | | Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions (208.92) | | Rookie tight ends generally don't produce much for Fantasy, and I don't necessarily expect LaPorta to buck that trend. But I think his landing spot puts him in position to make the most immediate impact of any of this year's vaunted rookie class, because the Lions enter the season with very little expected from the wide receivers outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs will play a big role in the passing game, but that still leaves plenty of room for LaPorta, at least until Jameson Williams ' six-game suspension is over. LaPorta is a good athlete (4.59 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3, 245 pounds) who showed solid after-the-catch playmaking chops in college, and if any rookie TE is going to be worth starting early this season, I like his chances best. | | Jamey Eisenberg's Sleepers | | Head here for Jamey's full list of sleepers. | | Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks | | Smith had a standout season in 2022 in his first year as the starter in Seattle, and he could be even better this year. But Fantasy managers are choosing to ignore Smith since he's being drafted as the No. 15 quarterback. He finished 2022 as the No. 5 quarterback in total points and No. 9 in points per game at 20.5. Since then, Seattle committed to Smith as the starter in 2023 and added talented rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba to an already quality receiving corps with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Smith has the chance to improve on last year's production when he passed for 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while also running for 366 yards and one score. He had 11 games with at least 20 Fantasy points, and hopefully, he continues to not "write back" after everyone wrote him off. He's a great fallback option as a No. 1 quarterback in all leagues. | | Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks | | It might take an injury for Kenneth Walker III for Charbonnet to become useful for Fantasy managers in his rookie campaign. Or Charbonnet could prove to be better than Walker early in the season. We're not sure what Seattle coach Pete Carroll will do with his backfield, but I plan to roster Charbonnet on plenty of my Fantasy teams, especially with his Round 9 ADP in June. The second-round draft pick from UCLA has a tremendous skill set after running for 3,346 yards and 39 touchdowns in college at 5.9 yards per carry, and he added 75 receptions for 589 yards. He could have an immediate role in the passing game, but he could be a star if given the starting job. You also could be frustrated with Charbonnet on your roster if Walker continues to dominate the workload, but I'd be surprised if Charbonnet doesn't contribute in Fantasy and reality in some capacity each week. Given Walker's June ADP in Round 5, I'd rather wait and draft Charbonnet if you want a piece of the Seattle backfield this year. | | Gabe Davis, WR, Bills | | Davis is a post-hype sleeper who failed to deliver as a breakout in 2022. His CBS ADP last year was No. 60 overall, but he finished with just 48 catches for 836 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 12.8 PPR points per game. That number is a little skewed because he had four games with at least 16 PPR points and six games with six PPR points or less. Now, you can make some valid excuses for Davis, who injured his ankle in Week 1 and missed Week 2. He seemed fully healthy in Week 5 against the Steelers when he had three catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns on six targets, and he followed that up with three catches for 74 yards and a touchdown on six targets at Kansas City in Week 6. Then, in Week 9 at the Jets, Josh Allen hurt his elbow, and the Bills ' passing game wasn't as explosive. As a result, Davis averaged just 10.0 PPR points per game in his final eight outings. I'm expecting Davis to bounce back in 2023 since he's still a big part of Buffalo's offense, and you can get him much cheaper this year with a June ADP in Round 9. That should end up being a steal this season. | | Dave Richard's Sleepers | | Head here for Dave's full list of sleepers. | | Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts | | I intend on being bullish on Richardson because of what he's capable of succeeding at immediately in the NFL: running the ball. Richardson is a big dude with good speed and a total understanding of when to run and how to do well on the ground. Jalen Hurts ' first year as a starter wasn't great as a passer (61.3% completion rate, 16 passing touchdowns) but he more than supplemented with his rushing (784 rush yards, 10 touchdowns) and finished as a top-12 quarterback on a per-game basis. His play-caller that year is Richardson's play-caller now -- Shane Steichen. Expect plenty of rushing baked into Indy's offense, and expect Richardson to be smart with the ball when throwing. He has a strong arm and he makes good decisions on where to throw; it's his accuracy that could cost him some turnovers. | | Tank Bigsby, RB, Jaguars | | Bigsby impressed in minicamp with his hands, which is good considering running backs can't do much else during non-padded drills. That's a bonus on top of Bigsby's physical style and elusiveness, talents the world knew he had coming out of Auburn. He's also been incredibly good in short-yardage situations, be it at the goal line or anywhere else on the field. There seems to be a movement toward taking touches off Travis Etienne this season -- Etienne said himself that a committee approach "keeps the wear and tear off my body. I don't have to go and bang myself up each and every play. I've got someone else take a couple of hits off of me. I love that." If Bigsby can find a gig where he gets around eight touches per game (including some catches) as well as goal-line work, he could have some appeal as a stand-alone flex in deeper leagues with obvious lotto-ticket upside if Etienne misses a game or two. | | JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Chiefs | | I doubt Smith-Schuster's ADP is anywhere near the end of Round 10 by the time we get to August, but for now he's become a forgotten man in Fantasy circles. Maybe forgotten is the wrong word -- maybe he's just sort of unwanted. He shouldn't be since he's in line to be the top target-getter for the Patriots. Replacing Jakobi Meyers as a middle-field target for Mac Jones is just the beginning -- last year Smith-Schuster posted three-year highs in Average Depth of Target (ADOT) with 7.35 and Yards After Catch per Reception (YAC/reception) with 5.96. He can build on those while seeing solid volume in an offense void of a true No. 1 wideout. That should lead to a safe PPR floor close to what he offered last year: 11.6 per game. | | Heath Cummings' Sleepers | | Head here for Heath's full list of sleepers. | | Sam Howell, QB, Commanders | | Howell is the favorite to beat out Jacoby Brissett and start for the Commanders this year. There's immense upside in this situation due to the presence of Eric Bienemy, Terry McLaurin, and Jahan Dotson . There's also sneaky rushing upside for Howell, who ran for 35 yards in his only start last year and 828 adds and 11 TDs in his final season at North Carolina. If everything goes right, Howell could be a one-QB starter by season's end. | | Samaje Perine, RB, Bengals | | Once Javonte Williams is 100% we expect Perine to be the 1B in the Denver backfield. As J.K. Dobbins showed us last year, we shouldn't bank on that being Week 1, but even if it was, I think Perine would be worth his consensus ranking. Williams has never been a feature back and I don't expect the Broncos will choose to try it for the first time in his first year off an ACL tear. If Williams misses time, Perine could be a league winner. He averaged 23.6 FPPG in the three games that he played more than half of the snaps last year. | | Nico Collins, WR, Texans | | Collins is entering Year 3, a common breakout year for wide receivers and got a big QB upgrade when the team drafted C.J. Stroud. He'll face competition from John Metchie, Robert Woods, and Tank Dell, but Collins is also the odds-on favorite to lead the team in targets this year. The expectation should be that he is a borderline No. 3 WR. | | | | | | | | Fantasy Football Today Dynasty | | The Early Edge | Can't get enough fantasy football? The Fantasy Football Today Dynasty podcast will help you dominate your league with in-depth Mock Drafts, risers & fallers, deep dynasty sleepers, NFL Draft prospect profiles and more.
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