| Donald Trump’s allies argue that his unpredictability is a feature, not a bug — and a key asset in dealing with the rest of the world. That makes anticipating the course of his administration’s foreign policy challenging. Trump has given few details of his plans on many key issues, however he has three “fixed beliefs,” according to Elizabeth Saunders, a professor of political science at Columbia University. “One, he really doesn’t like alliances, especially big multilateral ones. Two, he really doesn’t like multilateral trade deals. He wants to get out of them and then make them bilateral ones. And three, he admires authoritarian regimes,” Saunders said. The specifics may be unpredictable, but these are the tenets guiding his approach to the world. With those tenets in mind, here are three areas to watch: Allies: On the campaign trail, Trump vowed to bring an end to the fighting in Ukraine before he even takes office, mainly by pushing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin to reach an agreement. Without the US leading the push to support Ukraine, Europe’s divisions on the subject would become more evident. Trade: Some of Trump’s first moves could come in trade policy, where a president has broader power to act without congressional approval. His threat to slap 60% levies on goods from China would all but cut off trade with one of the US’s largest trading partners, although some allies have suggested it’s more of a negotiating tactic than a policy prescription. Authoritarians: Trump has sown doubts about US military support for Taiwan as China has stepped up pressure on the island it views as a rogue province. He has also defended his personal ties to leaders of US rivals like China’s Xi Jinping, saying they are receptive to his tougher messaging. Trump told the Wall Street Journal in October that he wouldn’t have to use military force against a Chinese blockade of Taiwan “because he respects me and he knows I’m f—— crazy.” In his first term, opposition from Congress and members of his own administration kept Trump from following through on some of his more radical ideas. This time, he’s expected to fill key Cabinet posts with staffers more willing to do his bidding. —Daniel Flatley, Bloomberg News
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