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| Friday, May 2, 2025 |
| Today's topic is layered. We're gonna take it piece-by-piece. |
| As an end point, I'm focused on how the rookie RB class might acclimate to a new environment in the NFL. To get there, I think it's important to first understand the topic of run schemes. If you'd rather skip straight to the player-specific takeaways, scroll to the bottom! |
| We're talking about rush schemes today: |
| 1. As it pertains to rushing, how does collegiate football differ from the NFL? |
| 2. What is the difference between zone and man/gap rushing? |
| 3. Which NFL teams specialize in specific rushing types? |
| 4. How might the incoming rookies for those teams be affected? |
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| How does collegiate football differ from the NFL? |
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| I compiled some statistical differences between the 2024 NFL and CFB seasons below. |
| Percentage of RB runs with 8+ defenders at the line of scrimmage (stacked box): |
28% - CFB
36% - NFL |
| Life is harder for a running back in the NFL. |
| Percentage of RB runs from the shotgun formation: |
91% - CFB
48% - NFL |
| Even though CFB running backs averaged notably more yards per rush (5.1) than NFL running backs (4.4), the average rushing success rate was higher for the NFL running backs (45.4%) than CFB backs (42%). |
A successful run on first or second down = a gain of at least half of the required yardage to first down
A successful run on third or fourth down = gaining a first down |
| Low success rate running backs usually don't last long in the NFL. Generally speaking, it's a no-nonsense league that rewards running backs who limit mistakes and maximize opportunities. |
| That's not always the case, though. Some schemes emphasize creating big play opportunities, even at the expense of more negative plays. Outside zone runs had just a 42% success rate (NFL) in 2024. That was the lowest rate among run-type classifications on TruMedia, the data base that I use. Outside zone runs had one of the highest explosive run rates of any type of run, though! |
| No data point tells the whole story! Context is necessary in getting any closer to understanding or predicting an end point. In example: |
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| The above tweet clearly seems positive in regards to Cam Skattebo and negative as it relates to Kaleb Johnson. |
| Awareness of Johnson's vastly different run scheme helps to better understand some of his underwhelming metrics. Johnson's outside zone rush rate at Iowa was more than twice as high as Skattebo's rate at Arizona State. He also ran from the shotgun only 31% of the time! Remember that the CFB average was 91%! |
| The NFL and CFB run games are different, and not everything that worked in college is going to translate to the pros. Avoided tackle rates drop as competition level increases. At the collegiate level, avoided tackle rates are higher in non-Power 4 conference contests than in Power-4 games. Rates drop again from college to the pros. |
| Ashton Jeanty isn't going to post an avoided tackle rate near 50% at the NFL level (he might). Yards before contact aren't going to be as readily available. Light boxes aren't going to present themselves as often. It's a different game. Not every running back is built for it. |
| Which NFL teams specialize in specific rushing types? |
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| Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers are known as the modern school of outside zone rushing. While Sean McVay has reinvented himself as a run designer, not much has changed when it comes to the broad strokes of the Shanahan run game. 73% of San Fran's RB rush attempts in 2024 were zone runs with a 54/19% split between outside/inside zone runs. Only one team had a higher outside zone run rate: the Atlanta Falcons. |
Outside Zone Specialists:
(Highest percentage of RB runs coming from outside zone in 2024) |
| 62% - Falcons |
| 53% - 49ers |
53% - Saints (Klint Kubiak will call plays for the Seahawks in 2025)
(Kellen Moore, the new Saints offensive designer, only used outside zone on 22% of RB rushes as Philly's play-caller) |
50% - Lions (Ben Johnson will call plays for the Bears in 2025)
(John Morton, the new Lions offensive coordinator, was the passing game coordinator for Denver in 2025. I'd be surprised if Detroit implemented significant changes to the run game) |
| 47% - Texans (Nick Caley, the new Texans OC, was the Rams tight ends coach and pass game coordinator) |
| 46% - Dolphins |
| 45% - Jets |
| 40% - Vikings |
| Mixed Zone Specialists |
| Panthers -- 43% outside zone, 22% inside zone |
| Steelers -- 40% outside zone, 29% inside zone |
| Browns -- 34% outside zone, 24% inside zone |
| Cowboys -- 27% outside zone, 37% inside zone |
| Chiefs -- 22% outside zone, 37% inside zone |
| Eagles -- 22% outside zone, 34% inside zone |
| Inside Zone Specialists |
| There were really only two inside zone specialists, and one is out of a job (Jacksonville). The one who remains an NFL play-caller is Kliff Kingsbury. The Washington Commanders used inside zone at the NFL's third-highest rate (35%) of RB runs, but only registered a 13% outside zone rate. |
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| Man/Gap Specialists |
| Only one team had a man/gap run rate above 40% in 2024, and it was the same team that led the NFL in man/gap RB run rate at over 50% in 2023. |
| Rams -- 43% |
| Bills -- 38% |
| Giants -- 37% |
| Bengals -- 36% |
| The Bills had a 10% 'power' run rate, which is included in the total man/gap rate. Compare that to the Rams, who had just a 2% power rate. What made up the vast majority of the 43% man/gap run rate, then? |
| If you watched the Football 101 videos that I linked, you'll recognize 'duo' as a man/gap run classification. That's become the bread and butter for McVay and Kyren Williams. The below excerpt was pulled from last summer's FFT newsletter. |
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| The Rams and Bills are the only two teams to post a rushing success rate of 48% or better on RB runs in each of the past two seasons. Those are the two most man-heavy run schemes in the NFL. Coincidence? I think not! |
| I don't mean to imply anything about which scheme is "best." More so, I hope to drive home the point about man/gap running being so much different than outside zone running. Remember the point made about Kaleb Johnson, earlier? Outside zone running swings for the fences at the expense of strikeouts, while man/gap running works the count, puts runners on base, and is content with piling up singles and doubles. |
| Like McVay, other offshoots from the Shanahan tree are implementing more man/gap rushing. While remaining true to their outside zone roots, both Matt LeFleur and Kevin O'Connell increased their man/gap run rates in 2024. The Packers were one of five teams with a rush success rate above 50% on RB runs last year, thanks in part to more of a bully-ball approach. |
| Both the Vikes and Packers beefed up the O-Line this offseason and could lean even more into a mixed rushing approach. You probably aren't here to think about Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones, though. Let's get to these rookies and get outta here! I've given you a lot to chew on in this newsletter. We'll spend more time with the topic of rush schemes later this offseason. |
| Below, you'll find the man/zone splits for the qualified incoming rookie backs. |
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| How might incoming rookie RBs be affected by schematic fit? |
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| TreVeyon Henderson |
| Listed below, you'll find running backs drafted Round 3 or earlier (since 2017) who were at least 20% more effective (yards per rush) as man rushers than zone rushers (minimum 80 rush attempts from each schematic classification). |
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| Here's the same thing, but for runners who were at least 20% more effective in zone schemes: |
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| I'm not sure if there's any predictive power in this data, in terms of evaluating a player's overall skill and chance of success as a pro. I wondered if maybe there was, in the same way that success vs. man coverage is an important indicator for wide receivers. For what it's worth, I like the first list better. Javonte Williams was a monster before his knee was reconfigured. MarShawn Lloyd, Zach Charbonnet, and Tyjae Spears haven't made huge impacts at the NFL level yet, but they also haven't failed. |
| Henderson's man/zone splits are very pronounced, coming in well above the 20% threshold. Makes sense, then, that Josh McDaniels liked him as a fit for the Patriots. Belo, you'll find rush data from the past four seasons with Josh McDaniels as coach or coordinator. |
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| Those are near league-high man/gap rates! We don't know what the McDaniels scheme will look like after taking a year off from coaching, but there's reason to be optimistic that this is a great fit for Henderson. |
| Omarion Hampton |
| I don't mean to incite panic about Hampton's skill set. I think that his offensive line play was so poor that I am taking all of his collegiate data (especially as it pertains to smaller sample sized splits) with a grain of salt. And his fit with the Chargers feels fine and might even be good. LA had just a 25.5% man/gap run rate in 2024. |
| Ashton Jeanty |
| He doesn't have pronounced splits. Jeanty looks great as a man and zone rusher, on paper. From a skill set perspective, he feels like he could immediately be one of the best man/gap runners in the league. And so I am excited to see him land in Las Vegas with Chip Kelly. |
| Kelly remade Ohio State's run game in 2024, moving the Buckeyes from a zone-heavy scheme to much more man/gap and power running. Both Henderson and Quinshon Judkins posted career-best efficiency within his system. |
| Bhayshul Tuten |
| When it comes to a play-caller boosting a running back's efficiency, perhaps no one is hotter than Liam Coen at this moment in football lore. I'm so excited to see what he does with Tuten. |
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| Tuten averaged an eye-popping 7.6 yards per outside zone rush at the collegiate level. Even with the league taking a conservative approach in letting the RB position fall in the NFL Draft, the Jags drafted Tuten as one of the first players off the board on Day 3. I bet that there is a clear plan for his fit in an offense that suddenly boasts several dynamic playmakers. |
| Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson |
| I love Dylan Sampson. I'd be really surprised if he overtook Judkins in any sort of meaningful way as a rookie. 99% of Sampson's collegiate carries came from the shotgun. The Browns had a relatively-high shotgun rate (61%) on RB rush attempts, but still, the NFL game is going to be very different than what Sampson experienced in his one year as a collegiate starter. |
| Cleveland has been one of the league's most zone-heavy run games under Kevin Stefanski, with an emphasis on outside zone rushing. Sampson only had 18 career outside zone attempts at Tennessee and averaged 3.4 yards on them. I like his skill set and am willing to make long-term bets on him, but my guess is that this backfield will belong to Judkins in 2025. |
| Kaleb Johnson |
| Arthur Smith wanting Kaleb Johnson felt like the most obvious RB fit of the 2025 draft. 74% of Johnson's Iowa attempts were zone runs, and only Corey Kiner (42%) had a higher career outside zone run rate than Johnson (37%). |
| Johnson posted a 36.7% avoided tackle rate on outside zone runs. Compare that to just 22.9% on all other runs. He needs space, and he should get it in Pittsburgh. Say what you want about Smith, but he knows how to design an efficient run game. |
| RJ Harvey |
| Like Liam Coen, Sean Payton is adaptive with his play-calling. Javonte Williams (37%), Audric Estime (46%), and Tyler Badie (36%) all had high man/gap run rates, while Jaleel McLaughlin's was only 7%. McLaughlin's outside zone run rate was 64%! The rest of the backfield had a 19% rate. |
| Harvey was at his best on outside zone runs at UCF, and I'm comfortable betting that Payton will maximize his skill set after making him a Round 2 conviction pick. |
| Jaydon Blue |
| Quite possibly the best big-play outside zone threat in the class lands with a Dallas offense that specializes in it. The fit is clear, all that is left is to see how much work the Cowboys are willing to give to Blue. he only had 214 career rushes at Texas. Nearly half (80) of those were outside zone attempts, and Blue averaged 7.3 yards on those. On all other carries, he averaged 4.7 yards. |
| Cam Skattebo |
| Another adaptive run-schemer! Brian Daboll used Saquon Barkley more as a zone runner (60%) but then dropped his backfield zone rate to 49% in 2024. He was aggressive in getting Tyrone Tracy to the edge with outside zone and counter looks, but used more simplified man/gap blocking when running Devin Singletary (mostly up the middle). I think we'll see something similar from Skattebo, I expect Daboll will let his rookie get creative in wearing opposing defenses down with jabs up the gut. |
| Skattebo was clearly at his worst (4.6 yards per) on outside zone runs. He averaged 5.9 yards per man/gap run and 5.2 yards per inside zone run. I'm very excited to see how Daboll mixes and matches his two young running backs. |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt |
| A massive 51% of Croskey-Merritt's collegiate attempts came on inside zone runs. Only RJ Harvey (61% had a higher rate) from this class. JCM's 7.2 yards per inside zone run narrowly beat out Harvey's 6.8-yard average for best in the class. |
| He lands with Kliff Kingsbury and a Commanders offense that had the third-highest inside zone rate (35%) on RB runs. The most unique aspect of Washington's run game is that 88% of RB runs came from the shotgun. The Eagles (79%) and Colts (78%) were the only other teams above 70%. JCM ran almost exclusively out of the gun in college, so this might be a seamless transition for him! The Commanders decided to use a Round 7 pick on him, even with multiple appealing running backs on the board. |
| Jarquez Hunter |
| Hunter had the fourth-best yard per man/gap run rate (6.4) and was drafted into McVay's offense. It feels like a perfect fit! |
| Jordan James and Corey Kiner |
| I was a bit surprised to see these two pop up among the most-efficient outside zone runners in the class. Typically, I associate speed as the top trait for outside zone running, and these two are average at best in that regard. Both bring a certain decisiveness that probably helps a lot with zone running, and that's evidenced in their collegiate data. |
| Kiner averaged 5.7 yards per outside zone run, compared to 5.1 on all other runs! |
| James averaged 6.6 yards per outside zone run, compared to 5.6 on all other runs! |
| No surprise, then, that Shanahan wanted these two! |
| Tahj Brooks |
| The Bengals ranked fifth in man/gap run rate in 2024, and Brooks feels like a perfect fit for what Cincy seems to want to do with their humongous offensive line. It's bully ball time. |
| Brooks averaged 5.6 yards, 3.5 yards after contact, with a 28% avoided tackle rate on man/gap runs in his collegiate career. |
| Brooks averaged 4.9 yards, 2.9 yards after contact, with a 25% avoided tackle rate on man/gap runs in his collegiate career. |
| I know he was a late pick, but Brooks legitimately might be the best processor in the RB class. This is a great fit for him. If he gets a chance to play, I expect Brooks to find success reading blocks on runs up the middle and become a problem for defensive fronts that have to play light to respect Cincinnati's passing game. He doesn't offer the big-play upside the Chase Brown does, but Brooks might immediately be the best option for keeping this ground game on track on a down-to-down basis. |
| If you want to watch film on the rookie RB class, check this thread out! |
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